Lex专栏：为吉利/沃尔沃交易点赞

LEX - Geely/Volvo: thumbs up
Lex专栏：为吉利/沃尔沃交易点赞

Contrary to popular myth, truckers do not pick up hitchhikers any longer. Most haulage companies forbid that practice. AB Volvo, the Swedish maker of 18 wheelers, has no choice in the matter. On Wednesday, Volvo dropped off one rider, activist fund Cevian Capital, in exchange for another: privately held Geely Holding of China. The former will sell its 8.2 per cent stake to Geely in a deal worth €3.25bn. For both sides, the deal makes sense.

与流行的神话相反，卡车司机再也不让搭便车的人上车了。多数运输公司禁止这种做法。瑞典的18轮大卡车制造商沃尔沃集团(Volvo Group)在这件事上没有选择。周三，沃尔沃让一个车手——维权基金Cevian Capital——下车，换上另一个车手：私有的中国吉利控股(Geely Holding)。前者将以32.5亿欧元将其所持的8.2%股份出售给吉利。这笔交易对双方都是有道理的。

Cevian had ridden this investment far enough. Not only had the Volvo holding made a hefty profit of €2bn, but its trucks took up a fifth of Cevian’s portfolio. That is a lot of parking space. Moreover, Volvo has come a long way since operating profits bottomed. This year its earnings should hit nearly €30bn, more than triple that of 2013. And its margins, once well below global peers, should mark a record high at 9 per cent. Given that turnround, Cevian could see that an activist’s input was not needed.

Cevian驾驭这项投资已经够久了。这笔沃尔沃股份不仅为其带来20亿欧元巨额利润，而且占了Cevian投资组合的五分之一。那是很大的配置比例。而且，沃尔沃自营业利润触底以来已经走了很长一段路。2017年其收入将达到近300亿欧元，是2013年的三倍以上。其利润率一度远低于全球同行，2017年应该能创下9%的历史新高。考虑到这样的局面扭转，Cevian可以看出，这家卡车制造商不再需要维权投资者的意见了。

Geely has happily taken Cevian’s place in the cab. The Chinese conglomerate had only one obvious gap in its portfolio: trucks. It already has passenger cars (Volvo Cars, Geely), performance cars (Lotus, Polestar) and even a bank (Saxo Bank) to create a financing arm. AB Volvo owns 45 per cent of China’s number four truckmaker Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles. Heavy duty trucks unit sales there have soared, likely up 53 per cent this year to a new record, according to Handelsbanken. Even if that pace slows next year, Geely will expect to pass some of what it has learnt on autonomous driving technology, and electric cars, to the truck business.

吉利愉快地接手Cevian在驾驶室中的位置。这家中国企业集团的资产组合只有一个明显的缺口：卡车。它已经有乘用车（沃尔沃汽车(Volvo Cars)、吉利），高性能车（莲花(Lotus)、北极星(Polestar)），甚至还有一家银行（盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)）来创建一个融资部门。沃尔沃集团拥有中国第四大卡车制造商——东风商用车(Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles) 45%股份。根据瑞典商业银行(Handelsbanken)的数据，中国的重型卡车销售量猛增，2017年有望增长53%，创下新的纪录。即使增速在2018年放缓，预计吉利也会将其在自主驾驶技术和电动汽车领域掌握的一些专长传递给这家卡车企业。

More to the point, China’s truck market is changing. At the beginning of this decade, public works projects determined demand. This year, private consumption will drive truck sales. Geely has taken a small bet on this market shift. Though the Chinese group is unlikely to bring Volvo cars and trucks together again, its holding in AB Volvo should grow in the years ahead.

更为关键的是，中国的卡车市场正在发生变化。在本10年初期，公共工程项目决定着需求。2017年，私人消费推动卡车销售。吉利对这一市场转变投下一个小小的赌注。尽管这家中资集团不太可能将沃尔沃的汽车和卡车业务再度整合起来，但其在沃尔沃集团的持股比例应该会在未来几年上升。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/和风