金正恩：“作”是因为缺乏安全感？

金正恩去年两度核试验，今年传闻刺杀兄长。

Kim Jong Nam arrived early.With two hours until his flight home to Macau, the one-time heir to North Korea's ruling Kim dynasty ambled unaccompanied through the spacious budget terminal of Kuala Lumpur international airport.

金正男（Kim Jong Nam）到早了，他要乘坐的飞往澳门的航班还要两个小时才起飞。这位朝鲜统治政权金家王朝曾经的继承人，孤身一人缓步行走在吉隆坡国际机场宽敞的廉价航班候机楼里。

A portly, unkempt figure, few would have guessed his almost royal lineage.But he was being watched, and his imminent assassination would send shockwaves around the world.

他看上去体态臃肿，不修边幅，没人会猜到他算得上皇室血脉。但他正被监视着，且马上就要被刺杀，而这一消息将震惊全球。

Two young women, one wearing a T-shirt bearing the initials LOL, stalked him through the terminal.A group of four male conspirators monitored events from a distance.

两名年轻女子在航站楼里偷偷跟着他，一个穿着印有“LOL”字母的T恤。四名男性同谋远远地观察着事态进展。

When the 46-year-old Kim—a half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un—stopped at a self check-in kiosk, the women struck.

当46岁的金正男——朝鲜领导人金正恩（Kim Jong Un）同父异母的长兄——止步在一台自助值机机器时，两名女子发动了袭击。

Approaching from behind, one jerked back his head and, according to police accounts, sprayed liquid in his face.The other simultaneously pounced, pressing a rag over his eyes, nose and mouth for about 10 seconds.

据警方报告，她们从金正男背后靠近他，一名女子猛地扭过他的头，向他脸上喷洒液体。另一名女子同时扑过去，在他的眼睛、鼻子和嘴部用力捂上一块布，时间有10秒钟左右。

Dizzy and disoriented, Kim stumbled through the airport looking for assistance, only to succumb to the apparent poisoning minutes later as he was rushed to hospital.

头晕目眩的金正男跌跌撞撞地在机场里寻求救助，明显呈现中毒状况，几分钟后在被紧急送往医院途中身亡。

前排右为童年时代的金正男，前排左为他的父亲金正日

The death of the would-be leader, widely believed to be at the hands of North Korean agents, was kept under wraps for almost two days before exploding across global media on Tuesday.When it did, the message was unmistakable：North Korea will brook no challenge, real or imagined, to its existence.No boundary, whether familial or geographic, was sacred.

外界普遍认为这位本来可能的接班人死于朝鲜特工之手，他的死讯被封锁了近两天，才于上周二在全球媒体迅速传播。新闻出来后，其内在信息不言而喻：朝鲜不会忍受对其存在的任何挑战——无论是事实还是想象；没有任何边界是神圣不可侵犯的——无论是家族的还是地理的。

At a time when nations are again attempting to address the dangers posed by Pyongyang, the incident serves as a salutary lesson on the nature of the regime and its most deeply held intentions.

正值各国再次试图解决平壤造成的危机之际，这一事件就朝鲜政权的性质及其最根深蒂固的意图，给世人上了有用的一课。

It is a warning that efforts to tackle the nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes of North Korea—once described by a US official as the “land of lousy options”—hinge on a key factor：the survival instinct of the 33-year-old marshal Kim Jong Un.

金正男遇刺事件提出了一个警告，即想要处理朝鲜核武器和弹道导弹计划，必须考虑一个关键因素：33岁的金正恩元帅的生存本能。一名美国官员曾将朝鲜描述为“糟糕选择之地”。

Before departing the Oval Office, US President Barack Obama informed incoming leader Donald Trump that North Korea would represent his most pressing foreign policy challenge.

在离开椭圆形办公室之前，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）对即将上任的唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）表示，朝鲜将成为他最紧迫的外交政策挑战。

The country had stormed back up the list of potential geopolitical flashpoints in 2016 after testing two nuclear devices and more than 20 sophisticated short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.After Mr Obama brokered agreements with Cuba and Iran, North Korea stood apart as a glaring example of a rogue nation refusing to come to heel.And it moved quickly to grab Mr Trump's attention.

2016年朝鲜进行了两次核试验，还试射了20多枚高技术含量中短程弹道导弹，重新杀回地缘政治引爆点榜单。在奥巴马与古巴和伊朗签署协议之后，朝鲜拒不就范，成了流氓国家的典范，而且迅速吸引了特朗普的注意。

In a New Year's address, Mr Kim announced his regime had long-range missiles capable of hitting the US whenever it chooses.The country had never demonstrated such capabilities, but the rhetoric was enough to elicit a quick-fire tweet from the new US president, who vowed it “won't happen”.

金正恩在新年致辞中宣布，他的政权拥有远程导弹，随时可以打击到美国。虽然朝鲜从未证明这一能力，但上述言论足以引发美国新任总统的Twitter快攻，特朗普发誓这种事“不会发生”。

Mr Trump was tested again last Sunday, this time in a more explosive manner, when Pyongyang launched an advanced mid-range rocket into the Sea of Japan.

上上周日特朗普再遭考验，这一次更加具有爆炸性：朝鲜向日本海试射了一枚中程弹道导弹。

“This was a carefully layered message” to gauge Trump, says Bong Youngshik, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

首尔延世大学（Yonsei University）朝鲜专家奉英植（Bong Young-shik）表示，“这是一条精心策划的、多层次的信息”，为的是试探特朗普。

Mr Kim wanted to learn how Mr Trump would react, without completely shutting the door on negotiations by launching a long-range missile, according to Mr Bong.

奉英植认为，金正恩是想知道特朗普会作何反应，所以没有试射远程导弹，完全关闭谈判大门。

The initial public response of Mr Trump, who at the time of the launch was hosting Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe at his Florida beach estate, was restrained.In a joint statement with Mr Abe, he vowed to support his “great ally” Japan.

特朗普的首次公开回应有所克制，导弹发射时特朗普正在他的佛罗里达州海滩庄园招待日本首相安倍晋三（Shinzo Abe）。在与安倍的联合声明中，特朗普发誓支持他的“伟大盟友”日本。

Survival instinct

生存本能

The focus has now shifted to how Mr Trump will respond to North Korea more broadly and how he will engage China, widely viewed as the crucial powerbroker.There is a growing consensus that the longstanding approach to North Korea—economic and diplomatic isolation enforced by rigid sanctions—is not working.

焦点现在转向了特朗普将如何更全面地应对朝鲜问题，以及他将如何吸引中国加入，人们普遍认为中国是关键的权力中间人。有越来越多的共识认为对朝鲜的长期策略——以严格制裁实施经济和外交隔离——没有起到作用。

“If the US really hopes to achieve peace on the Korean peninsula, it should stop looking for ways to stifle North Korea's economy and undermine Kim Jong Un's regime and start finding ways to make Pyongyang feel more secure,” wrote John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University, in a recent Foreign Affairs article.

延世大学教授鲁乐汉（John Delury）近期在《外交政策》（Foreign Policy）上发文表示：“如果美国真正希望在朝鲜半岛实现和平，就应停止想方设法地扼杀朝鲜经济，破坏金正恩政权，而要开始想办法增加平壤方面的安全感。”

“This might sound counterintuitive.But consider this：North Korea will start focusing on its prosperity instead of its self-preservation only once it no longer has to worry about its own destruction.”

“这听起来可能违反直觉，但请考虑一点，朝鲜只有不再担心自己被摧毁，才会开始关注其国内繁荣，而不是自卫。”

For many, the sanctions, combined with the regular US-South Korea armed drills on the peninsula and the planned deployment of a missile shield that has angered Beijing, only strengthen Mr Kim's survival instinct and pushes him further down the path towards nuclear armament.

对许多人来说，对朝制裁，加上美韩在半岛的常规军演，以及惹怒北京的导弹防御系统部署计划，只会强化金正恩的生存本能，推动他向核武器道路继续前进。

According to policymakers and experts in Seoul, the prospect of de-nuclearisation in North Korea is already a lost cause—a notion echoed by James Clapper, the former US director of national intelligence, in a speech late last year.The weapons, much like the murder of Kim Jong Nam, act as a guarantee of the North Korean leader's safety, liberty and authority.

首尔的政策制定者和专家表示，朝鲜无核化的前景已经失败——美国前国家情报总监（DNI）詹姆斯·克拉珀（James Clapper）在去年底的一次演讲中呼应了这个观点。这些武器，就像金正男被谋杀一样，是这位朝鲜领导人的安全、自由和权威的保证。

A more viable option is a moratorium on their development, says Kim Jaechun, a professor of political science at Sogang University and adviser to the Seoul government.“De-nuclearisation is not possible.However, as long as the US doesn't try to dismantle its nuclear weapons, it is quite possible for North Korea to declare a moratorium on its nuclear programme.Proactive diplomacy is needed.”

一个更可行的选择是延缓其核武器开发，西江大学（Sogang University）政治学教授、韩国政府顾问金宰春（Kim Jae-chun）说。“无核化是不可能的。然而，只要美国不试图拆除其核武器，朝鲜就很有可能宣布暂停其核计划。需要采取积极的外交行动。”

Prof Kim, like most strategists, is quick to dismiss the idea of a preventive military strike on Pyongyang's nuclear facilities.Such an attack would inevitably fail, he says, because most facilities are hidden underground.It would also result in catastrophic retaliatory strikes on Seoul, just 60km from the border.In the 1990s, US President Bill Clinton considered the option, only to be dissuaded by estimates of 1m South Korean casualties from such an attack.

像大多数战略家一样，金宰春教授毫不犹豫地否定了对朝鲜核设施发起预防性军事打击的想法。这种打击必然会失败，他说，因为大多数设施都隐藏在地下。这也将导致距离边界仅60公里的首尔遭到灾难性的报复攻击。在1990年代，美国总统比尔·克林顿（Bill Clinton）曾考虑过这个选项，但报复攻击会给韩国带来约100万伤亡，让他放弃了这一想法。

However, engagement with Pyongyang is not favoured by all and is bitterly opposed by conservative South Korean groups.For them, de-nuclearisation is the crucial first step.

然而，并非各个方面都支持与平壤方面接触，韩国保守集团对此表示强烈反对。对他们来说，无核化是关键的第一步。

“Lower tensions while North Korea is still moving towards nukes is a deception …It is just borrowing tomorrow's peace.It makes tomorrow more dangerous,” says Chun Yung-woo, a former leading South Korean negotiator with Pyongyang.

“当朝鲜仍然朝着核武器迈进时，缓和紧张是一句假话……这只是透支明天的和平。这使明天变得更危险，”韩国前对朝主要谈判代表千英宇（Chun Yung-woo）说。

He says the international community must ratchet up sanctions to the point where the Kim regime faces no alternative but to make a deal.His proposal has some support in the US.On Thursday, a group of Republicans, including the Texas senator Ted Cruz, urged the Treasury to ramp up financial pressure on North Korea.

他表示，国际社会必须加强制裁，让金正恩政权别无选择，只能达成协议。他的提议在美国获得一定的支持。最近，包括得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）在内的一群共和党人，敦促财政部加大对朝鲜的财政压力。

词汇总结

amble[ˈæmbl]

vi.（马）缓行;从容地走，漫步

n.（马的）缓行步态;从容轻松的步伐，漫步

Kim Jong Nam arrived early.With two hours until his flight home to Macau, the one-time heir to North Korea's ruling Kim dynasty ambled unaccompanied through the spacious budget terminal of Kuala Lumpur international airport.

金正男（Kim Jong Nam）到早了，他要乘坐的飞往澳门的航班还要两个小时才起飞。这位朝鲜统治政权金家王朝曾经的继承人，孤身一人缓步行走在吉隆坡国际机场宽敞的廉价航班候机楼里。

portly[ˈpɔ:tli]

adj.肥胖的

A portly, unkempt figure, few would have guessed his almost royal lineage.

他看上去体态臃肿，不修边幅，没人会猜到他算得上皇室血脉。

stalk[stɔ:k]

n.[植]茎，秆;叶柄，花梗;高视阔步;偷偷接近，潜随

vt.追踪，潜近;高视阔步

Two young women, one wearing a T-shirt bearing the initials LOL, stalked him through the terminal.A group of four male conspirators monitored events from a distance.

两名年轻女子在航站楼里偷偷跟着他，一个穿着印有“LOL”字母的T恤。四名男性同谋远远地观察着事态进展。

disoriented[dɪ'sɔ:rɪəntɪd]

adj.分不清方向或目标的，无判断力的

Dizzy and disoriented, Kim stumbled through the airport looking for assistance, only to succumb to the apparent poisoning minutes later as he was rushed to hospital.

头晕目眩的金正男跌跌撞撞地在机场里寻求救助，明显呈现中毒状况，几分钟后在被紧急送往医院途中身亡。