演讲MP3+双语文稿:气候病全球蔓延，急救药物真的有效吗？
听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:气候病全球蔓延，急救药物真的有效吗？，希望你会喜欢！
【演讲人】Kelly Wanser
【演讲主题】《气候病全球蔓延，急救药物真的有效吗？》
【演讲文稿-中英文】
翻译者 psjmz mz 校对 Yanyan Hong
I'm here to talk to you about something important that may be new to you. The governments of the world are about to conduct an unintentional experiment on our climate. In 2020, new rules will require ships to lower their sulfur emissions by scrubbing their dirty exhaust or switching to cleaner fuels. For human health, this is really good, but sulfur particles in the emission of ships also have an effect on clouds. This is a satellite image of marine clouds off the Pacific West Coast of the United States. The streaks in the clouds are created by the exhaust from ships. Ships' emissions include both greenhouse gases, which trap heat over long periods of time, and particulates like sulfates that mix with clouds and temporarily make them brighter. Brighter clouds reflect more sunlight back to space, cooling the climate. So in fact, humans are currently running two unintentional experiments on our climate.
今天，我要给各位分享一些 你们或许没听过，却至关重要的事情。 世界各国政府 将要对我们的气候做一个 无意的实验。 2020 年，出台了一些新规定， 要求船舶能够处理废气， 或改用更清洁的燃料 来降低硫的排放。 对人类健康而言，这是好事， 但船舶中的硫粒子排放 也会对云层产生影响。 这是美国太平洋西海岸 的海洋云层的卫星图像。 云层中的条纹是由船只 排出的废气造成的。 船舶的排放气体包括温室气体， 这些气体会不断积聚热量， 而硫酸盐等微粒与云层混合后， 会暂时使云层变亮。 明亮的云层会把更多的 太阳光反射回太空， 降低温度。 所以，事实上， 人类是在对我们的气候进行 两种无意的实验。
In the first one, we're increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases and gradually warming the earth system. This works something like a fever in the human body. If the fever remains low, its effects are mild, but as the fever rises, damage grows more severe and eventually devastating. We're seeing a little of this now.
第一个实验，我们在逐渐 增加温室气体的浓度， 慢慢导致全球气候变暖， 这个过程有点像人体的发烧。 如果发烧的温度比较低， 它的危害还不是很大， 但如果发烧的温度升高了， 会带来很大的危害， 并最终导致十分严重的后果。 我们现在已经看到了一些这样的情况。
In our other experiment, we're planning to remove a layer of particles that brighten clouds and shield us from some of this warming. The effect is strongest in ocean clouds like these, and scientists expect the reduction of sulfur emissions from ships next year to produce a measurable increase in global warming.
在我们另一个实验中， 我们正计划移除一层粒子， 使云层变亮，并保护我们 免受气候变暖的影响。 像这种效应在海洋云层中最强， 科学家预计明年船舶 硫排放量的减少， 将会导致可测量的全球气候变暖。
Bit of a shocker? In fact, most emissions contain sulfates that brighten clouds: coal, diesel exhaust, forest fires. Scientists estimate that the total cooling effect from emission particles, which they call aerosols when they're in the climate, may be as much as all of the warming we've experienced up until now. There's a lot of uncertainty around this effect, and it's one of the major reasons why we have difficulty predicting climate, but this is cooling that we'll lose as emissions fall. So to be clear, humans are currently cooling the planet by dispersing particles into the atmosphere at massive scale. We just don't know how much, and we're doing it accidentally. That's worrying, but it could mean that we have a fast-acting way to reduce warming, emergency medicine for our climate fever if we needed it, and it's a medicine with origins in nature.
让人有些震惊吧？ 实际上，很多包含硫的排放物 都可以使云层变亮： 煤，柴油废气，森林火灾。 科学家估计，来自 排放粒子的总冷却效应 （这些粒子在大气中被称为气体粒子） 可能和我们到目前为止 所经历的变暖差不多。 这种效应存在很大的不确定性， 这是我们很难预测气候变化 的主要原因之一， 但随着排放量下降， 我们将失去这种降温方式。 再清楚的解释一下， 人类目前是通过大规模地 把废气粒子排放到大气 从而使地球降温的。 我们并不知道降温的程度， 我们只是无心插柳罢了 。 这的确让人担忧， 但这也意味着我们有 快速的方法来降温， 如果需要的话，我们有 缓解气候过热的紧急方法， 并且这是一种源于自然的方法。
This is a NASA simulation of earth's atmosphere, showing clouds and particles moving over the planet. The brightness is the Sun's light reflecting from particles in clouds, and this reflective shield is one of the primary ways that nature keeps the planet cool enough for humans and all of the life that we know. In 2015, scientists assessed possibilities for rapidly cooling climate. They discounted things like mirrors in space, ping-pong balls in the ocean, plastic sheets on the Arctic, and they found that the most viable approaches involved slightly increasing this atmospheric reflectivity. In fact, it's possible that reflecting just one or two percent more sunlight from the atmosphere could offset two degrees Celsius or more of warming.
这 NASA 对地球大气的模拟， 显示了云层和粒子 在地球上的移动情况。 明亮处是云层中粒子反射阳光的部分， 并且这种反射罩是自然为人类 和我们已知的所有生物 保持地球足够冷却 所准备的主要方式之一。 2015 年，科学家评估了 快速冷却气候的可行性。 他们不看重诸如那些太空镜子， 海洋中的乒乓球， 北极的塑料布之类的东西， 他们发现最可行的方法 是略微增加大气的反射率。 事实上，将从大气中反射 的阳光增加一到两个百分点 可以影响 2 摄氏度的气温， 甚至更高的升温都是有可能的。
Now, I'm a technology executive, not a scientist. About a decade ago, concerned about climate, I started to talk with scientists about potential countermeasures to warming. These conversations grew into collaborations that became the Marine Cloud Brightening Project, which I'll talk about momentarily, and the nonprofit policy organization SilverLining, where I am today. I work with politicians, researchers, members of the tech industry and others to talk about some of these ideas. Early on, I met British atmospheric scientist John Latham, who proposed cooling the climate the way that the ships do, but with a natural source of particles: sea-salt mist from seawater sprayed from ships into areas of susceptible clouds over the ocean. The approach became known by the name I gave it then, "marine cloud brightening." Early modeling studies suggested that by deploying marine cloud brightening in just 10 to 20 percent of susceptible ocean clouds, it might be possible to offset as much as two degrees Celsius's warming. It might even be possible to brighten clouds in local regions to reduce the impacts caused by warming ocean surface temperatures. For example, regions such as the Gulf Atlantic might be cooled in the months before a hurricane season to reduce the force of storms. Or, it might be possible to cool waters flowing onto coral reefs overwhelmed by heat stress, like Australia's Great Barrier Reef.
我是个技术主管，不是个科学家。 大概 10 年前，因为担忧气候问题， 我开始和科学家们讨论 气候问题的潜在对策。 这些对话发展成了 我一会儿将会讲到的 海洋云层增亮计划的合作项目， 和我今天身处的非盈利组织 SilverLining （暗夜曙光）。 我跟政治家，研究者， 科技和其他行业的成员 讨论这些想法。 早些时候，我遇到了 英国气候学家约翰·莱瑟姆， 他提出了一种和船排放废气 同一原理的给气候降温的方式， 但使用一种天然的微粒来源: 海水中的海盐雾， 从船上喷射到海洋上 易受影响的云层中。 这项目因我起的名字“海洋云增亮” 而为人们所知。 早先模型研究显示只需在 10-20% 易受影响 的海洋云中部署“海洋云增亮”， 就可能会抵消多达 2 摄氏度的升温。 它甚至可以通过使部分地区的云层变亮， 来减少海洋表面温度上升引发的影响。 比如，在大西洋海湾等地， 在飓风季来临前的几个月降温， 可以降低风暴的威力。 或者，它也可以冷却流入 受热很强的珊瑚礁的水流， 比如，澳大利亚的大堡礁。
But these ideas are only theoretical, and brightening marine clouds is not the only way to increase the reflection of the sunlight from the atmosphere. Another occurs when large volcanoes release material with enough force to reach the upper layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere. When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, it released material into the stratosphere, including sulfates that mix with the atmosphere to reflect sunlight. This material remained and circulated around the planet. It was enough to cool the climate by over half a degree Celsius for about two years. This cooling led to a striking increase in Arctic ice cover in 1992, which dropped in subsequent years as the particles fell back to earth. But the volcanic phenomenon led winner Paul Crutzen to propose the idea that dispersing particles into the stratosphere in a controlled way might be a way to counter global warming. Now, this has risks that we don't understand, including things like heating up the stratosphere or damage to the ozone layer. Scientists think that there could be safe approaches to this, but is this really where we are? Is this really worth considering?
但这些想法只停留在理论层面， 并且增亮海洋云层不是唯一一种 用来提高太阳光大气反射率的方法。 另一种方式是利用大型火山 释放的具有足够的力量物质， 可以到达到达大气层 的上层，即平流层。 在 1991 年，皮纳图博火山爆发时， 它释放到大气中的物质， 包括与大气混合 可以反射阳光的硫酸盐。 这些物质仍然存在并在地球上循环。 它足以在大约两年的时间中降温 约 0.5 摄氏度。 这种降温导致 1992 年 北极冰层覆盖率显著增加， 然而在随后几年，随着这些粒子 落回地面，冰层覆盖率也随之下降。 但火山现象促使诺贝尔奖得主 保罗·克鲁岑提出了一个想法， 即以可控的方式将粒子播撒到平流层， 可能是解决全球变暖的一种方式。 这个措施存在我们尚不清楚的风险， 包括加热平流层， 或者破坏臭氧层。 科学家认为会有安全的方式来实现， 但我们真的能做到吗？ 这真的值得考虑吗？
This is a simulation from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research global climate model showing, earth surface temperatures through 2100. The globe on the left visualizes our current trajectory, and on the right, a world where particles are introduced into the stratosphere gradually in 2020, and maintained through 2100. Intervention keeps surface temperatures near those of today, while without it, temperatures rise well over three degrees. This could be the difference between a safe and an unsafe world.
这个来自 美国国家大气研究中心 的全球气候模型显示了到 2100 年的地球表面温度。 左边的显示了地球 按目前轨迹的情况， 而右边，则是一个 2020 年 微粒被逐渐播撒到 平流层， 并维持到 2100 年的情况。 干预让表面温度接近目前的水平， 而没有干预，温度将上升超过 3 度。 这可能是安全和不安全世界的差异。
So, if there's even a chance that this could be close to reality, is this something we should consider seriously? Today, there are no capabilities, and scientific knowledge is extremely limited. We don't know whether these types of interventions are even feasible, or how to characterize their risks. Researchers hope to explore some basic questions that might help us know whether or not these might be real options or whether we should rule them out. It requires multiple ways of studying the climate system, including computer models to forecast changes, analytic techniques like machine learning, and many types of observations. And though it's controversial, it's also critical that researchers develop core technologies and perform small-scale, real-world experiments.
所以，如果存在可能接近现实的机会， 这是我们应该认真考虑的吗？ 今天，我们现有的能力仍然不足， 相关科学知识非常有限。 我们不知道这种干预是否具有弹性， 或如何描述它们的风险。 研究者希望找到一些基本问题 来帮助我们理解这些 是否是真正的选项， 还是我们应该排除的选择。 这要求多种研究气候系统的方法， 包括预测变化的电脑模型， 类似机器学习的分析技术， 以及很多类型的观测。 尽管这存在争议， 研究者开发核心技术并进行小规模， 真实世界的实验也很重要。
There are two research programs proposing experiments like this. At Harvard, the SCoPEx experiment would release very small amounts of sulfates, calcium carbonate and water into the stratosphere with a balloon, to study chemistry and physics effects. How much material? Less than the amount released in one minute of flight from a commercial aircraft. So this is definitely not dangerous, and it may not even be scary.
有两个研究项目提出了这样的实验。 在哈佛大学，SCoPEx实验 将用气球向平流层 释放非常少量的硫酸盐、 碳酸钙和水， 来研究化学和物理效应。 有多少物质？ 不到商业航班一分钟内 的排放量。 所以这当然没有危害， 也谈不上可怕。
At the University of Washington, scientists hope to spray a fine mist of salt water into clouds in a series of land and ocean tests. If those are successful, this would culminate in experiments to measurably brighten an area of clouds over the ocean. The marine cloud brightening effort is the first to develop any technology for generating aerosols for atmospheric sunlight reflection in this way. It requires producing very tiny particles -- think about the mist that comes out of an asthma inhaler -- at massive scale -- so think of looking up at a cloud. It's a tricky engineering problem.
在华盛顿大学， 科学家们希望在一系列 的陆地和海洋测试中， 向云层中喷洒一层细盐水雾。 如果这些尝试成功了， 我们将可以测量到 海洋上空的云层将变得明亮。 海洋云层增亮努力是第一个 利用技术来产生微粒， 以增加大气阳光反射的方式。 这要求生产非常小的微粒—— 想想哮喘吸入器喷出的雾气—— 扩大规模——想想天上的云朵。 这是个棘手的工程问题。
So this one nozzle they developed generates three trillion particles per second, 80 nanometers in size, from very corrosive saltwater. It was developed by a team of retired engineers in Silicon Valley -- here they are -- working full-time for six years, without pay, for their grandchildren. It will take a few million dollars and another year or two to develop the full spray system they need to do these experiments. In other parts of the world, research efforts are emerging, including small modeling programs at Beijing Normal University in China, the Indian Institute of Science, a proposed center for climate repair at Cambridge University in the UK and the DECIMALS Fund, which sponsors researchers in global South countries to study the potential impacts of these sunlight interventions in their part of the world. But all of these programs, including the experimental ones, lack significant funding. And understanding these interventions is a hard problem. The earth is a vast, complex system and we need major investments in climate models, observations and basic science to be able to predict climate much better than we can today and manage both our accidental and any intentional interventions.
这是他们开发的一个喷嘴， 每秒钟能产生 3 万亿微粒， 每一粒有 80 纳米大小， 来自腐蚀性很强的盐水。 它是由一群硅谷 的退休工程师开发的—— 就是他们—— 6 年全职工作，没有薪水，为了后代。 还需要几百万美元和一到两年的时间 来开发需要用来做这些实验 的全套喷洒系统。 在世界其他地方， 研究者的努力正在兴起， 包括北京师范大学的小型建模项目， 印度科学研究院， 英国剑桥大学气候修复中心， 还有DECIMALS基金， 资助了全球南部国家的研究人员， 以研究这些阳光干预措施 对他们所在地区 的潜在影响。 但所有这些项目，包括实验性的项目， 缺乏足够的资金。 但了解这些干预措施是个复杂的问题。 地球是个巨大，复杂的系统， 我们需要大力投资气候模型、观测 和基础科学 来获得比今天更好气候预测， 并管理我们任何有意 或无意的干预措施。
And it could be urgent. Recent scientific reports predict that in the next few decades, earth's fever is on a path to devastation: extreme heat and fires, major loss of ocean life, collapse of Arctic ice, displacement and suffering for hundreds of millions of people. The fever could even reach tipping points where warming takes over and human efforts are no longer enough to counter accelerating changes in natural systems.
这可能很紧急。 最近的科学报告预测，未来几十年， 地球的发热正走向毁灭： 酷热及火灾， 海洋生命的大面积死亡， 北极冰崩， 数亿人口流离失所，饱受苦难。 此类气候升温甚至会达到 临界点，变成温暖主导， 直到人类的努力再也不能够 扭转自然系统的加速变化。
To prevent this circumstance, the UN's International Panel on Climate Change predicts that we need to stop and even reverse emissions by 2050. How? We have to quickly and radically transform major economic sectors, including energy, construction, agriculture, transportation and others. And it is imperative that we do this as fast as we can. But our fever is now so high that climate experts say we also have to remove massive quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere, possibly 10 times all of the world's annual emissions, in ways that aren't proven yet.
为了防止这种情况发生， 联合国气候变化国际小组预测， 我们需要在 2050 年停止， 甚至逆转温室气体排放。 怎样实现？我们需要主要 经济部门的快速和根本变革， 包括能源，建筑，农业，交通和其他。 我们必须尽快做到这一点。 但我们地球的发热现在如此之高， 以致气候专家说我们还需要移除 大气中的海量二氧化碳， 可能是世界年排放量的 10 倍， 用还没有验证过的方式。
Right now, we have slow-moving solutions to a fast-moving problem. Even with the most optimistic assumptions, our exposure to risk in the next 10 to 30 years is unacceptably high, in my opinion.
现在，我们对一个快速变化的问题 有一个缓慢发展的解决方案。 即便用最乐观的预估， 我们在接下来 10-30 年要面对的风险 也是无法承受的，就我的观点而言。
Could interventions like these provide fast-acting medicine if we need it to reduce the earth's fever while we address its underlying causes? There are real concerns about this idea. Some people are very worried that even researching these interventions could provide an excuse to delay efforts to reduce emissions. This is also known as a moral hazard. But, like most medicines, interventions are more dangerous the more that you do, so research actually tends to draw out the fact that we absolutely, positively cannot continue to fill up the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, that these kinds of alternatives are risky and if we were to use them, we would need to use as little as possible.
如果我们需要这样的干预措施来 降低地球的温度，同时从根本上解决问题， 那么这些干预措施能否 提供快速见效的药物呢？ 人们对这些想法存在切实担忧。 有些人非常担心即便 是研究这些干预措施 都可能会给推迟减排努力提供借口。 这里也存在道德风险。 但是，就像大部分药品， 干预越多越危险， 所以研究者倾向于得提出这个事实， 即我们绝对不能继续 用温室气体填充大气， 这些替代方式是有风险的， 如果我们使用它们， 我们需要尽可能少地使用。
But even so, could we ever learn enough about these interventions to manage the risk? Who would make decisions about when and how to intervene? What if some people are worse off, or they just think they are? These are really hard problems. But what really worries me is that as climate impacts worsen, leaders will be called on to respond by any means available. I for one don't want them to act without real information and much better options.
但即便如此， 我们能否足够了解这些干预， 从而用它们来管理风险？ 谁来做决定什么时候和如何干预？ 如果有些人情况糟糕， 或者他们这样认为呢？ 这些都是困难的问题。 但真正让我担忧的是 随着气候影响恶化， 各国领导人将会被要求用 现存的各种方式做出反应。 我不希望他们在没有真实信息 和更多好的选项的情况下行动。
Scientists think it will take a decade of research just to assess these interventions, before we ever were to develop or use them. Yet today, the global level of investment in these interventions is effectively zero. So, we need to move quickly if we want policymakers to have real information on this kind of emergency medicine.
在我们能够开发和利用这些干预措施前， 科学家认为需要 10 年的研究 才能评估它们的效果。 然而今天，对这些干预的 全球级别的投入 基本上是零。 所以，我们需要快速行动， 如果我们想要政策制定者具备 这种应急医药的真实信息。
There is hope! The world has solved these kinds of problems before. In the 1970s, we identified an existential threat to our protective ozone layer. In the 1980s, scientists, politicians and industry came together in a solution to replace the chemicals causing the problem. They achieved this with the only legally binding environmental agreement signed by all countries in the world, the Montreal Protocol. Still in force today, it has resulted in a recovery of the ozone layer and is the most successful environmental protection effort in human history.
希望是存在的！ 世界曾经解决过类似的问题。 在 1970 年，我们发现了保护臭氧层 所面临的威胁。 在 1980 年代，科学家， 政治家和工业界 通过合作找到了引发这个问题 的化学物品的替代解决方案。 他们通过世界各国签署 的唯一具有法律约束力 的环境协定实现了这一目标， 《蒙特利尔议定书》。 该协议今天仍然有效， 它已经让臭氧层得到恢复， 并且它是人类历史上最成功的 环境保护努力。
We have a far greater threat now, but we do have the ability to develop and agree on solutions to protect people and restore our climate to health. This could mean that to remain safe, we reflect sunlight for a few decades, while we green our industries and remove CO2. It definitely means we must work now to understand our options for this kind of emergency medicine.
我们现在面临着更大的威胁， 但我们有能力去开发和通过 保护人们和恢复 我们气候健康的解决方案。 这可能意味着要保持安全， 我们要反射阳光几十年， 同时净化我们的工业 和消除二氧化碳。 这无疑意味着， 我们必须从现在开始着手， 了解我们对这种紧急医疗的选择。
Thank you,
谢谢。
（Applause）
（鼓掌）
- 频道推荐
- |
- 全站推荐
- 推荐下载
- 网站推荐
