演讲MP3+双语文稿:西方如何适应崛起的亚洲
听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:西方如何适应崛起的亚洲，希望你会喜欢！
【演讲者及介绍】
作者、外交官、学者基肖尔·马布巴尼(Kishore Mahbubani)，通过他的著作、外交工作和研究，从不断崛起的亚洲经济体的视角，重新描绘了全球权力动态。
【演讲主题】西方如何适应崛起的亚洲
【中英文字幕】
翻译者 psjmz mz 校对者 YolandaZhang
00:00
About 200 years ago, Napoleon famouslywarned ... He said, "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shakethe world." Despite this early warning, the West chose to go to sleep atprecisely the moment when China and India and the rest of Asia woke up. Why didthis happen? I'm here to address this great mystery.
大约两百年前，拿破仑有一句非常著名的警示语，他说，“让中国沉睡吧，一旦她醒了，她将震撼整个世界。”虽然有这个很早的警告，西方却恰恰在中国、印度和其它亚洲国家苏醒的时候选择沉睡。为什么会发生这样的事情？我来为大家解开这个谜团。
00:39
Now what do I mean when I say the Westchose to go to sleep? Here I'm referring to the failure of the West to reactintelligently and thoughtfully to a new world environment that's obviously beencreated by the return of Asia. As a friend of the West I feel anguished bythis, so my goal to today is to try to help the West. But I have to begin thestory first by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of theworld.
当我说西方选择沉睡是什么意思呢？这里我指的是，西方在明智和周到地应对亚洲回归时所建立的一个新世界环境时所面临的失败。所以我今天的目的，就是试着来帮助西方。但是首先，我需要讲一个故事，这个故事是讲述西方如何使这个世界其他国家苏醒的。
01:14
Look at chart one. From the year onethrough the year 1820, the two largest economies of the world were always thoseof China and India. So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off,followed by North America. So the past 200 years of world history havetherefore been a major historical aberration. All aberrations come to a naturalend and this is what we are seeing. And if you look at chart two, you'll seehow quickly and how forcefully China and India are coming back.
请看图一。从第一年，到1820年，世界上两个最大的经济体一直都是中国和印度。所以只有过去的200年由欧洲获得了第一名，北美紧随其后。所以过去200年的世界历史成为了一个重要的历史偏差。所有的偏差最后终会走到一个自然的结局，就是我们现在看到的。如果你看一下图表二，你将会看到中国和印度将会多么快速和多么强有力地回归。
02:06
The big question is: Who woke up China andIndia? The only honest answer to this question is that it was Westerncivilization that did so. We all know that the West was the first tosuccessfully modernize, transform itself; initially it used its power tocolonize and dominate the world. But over time, it shared the gifts of Westernwisdom with the rest of the world.
最大的问题是：谁使中国和印度苏醒了？唯一坦诚的答案是，西方文明使它们苏醒了。我们都知道西方是第一个成功现代化和转型的群体；最初它使用自己的力量殖民统治世界。但是随着时间流逝，它与世界上的其它国家分享了西方智慧的馈赠。
02:36
Let me add here that I have personallybenefited from the sharing of Western wisdom. When I was born in Singapore,which was then a poor British colony, in 1948, I experienced, likethree-quarters of humanity then, extreme poverty. Indeed, on the first day whenI went to school at the age of six, I was put in a special feeding programbecause I was technically undernourished. Now as you can see I'm overnourished.
请让我在这里加入一点我作为个人收到的来自分享西方智慧的馈赠。当我出生在新加坡时，那时新加坡还只是一个贫穷的英国殖民地。在1948年，就像世界上四分之三的人类那样，我也经历了极度的贫穷。事实上，当我在6岁第一次走进学校时，参加了一个特殊营养计划，因为我营养不良。现在你们看，我是营养过剩了。
03:09
(Laughter)
（笑声）
03:11
But the greatest gift I got was that ofWestern education. Now since I've personally traveled this journey from thirdworld poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence, I can speak with greatconviction about the impact of Western wisdom and the sharing of Western wisdomwith the world. And one particular gift that the West shared was the art ofreasoning. Now reasoning was not invented by the West. It's inherent in allcultures and civilizations. Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it isin Indian civilization. Yet there's also no doubt that it was the West thatcarried the art of reasoning to a much higher level. And through the ScientificRevolution, the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution, the West reallyraised it forcefully, and equally importantly used this, applied it to solvemany major practical problems. And the West then shared this art of appliedreasoning with the rest of the world, and I can tell you that it led to what Icall three silent revolutions. And as an Asian, I can describe how these silentrevolutions transformed Asia.
但是我收到的最棒的礼物是西方教育。自从我自己进行了这场旅行，从贫穷的第三世界国家到一个舒适的中产阶级生活，我可以用坚定的口吻来讲述西方智慧的影响和西方智慧与世界做的分享。其中一个特别的馈赠是，西方分享了推理的艺术。推理不是西方创造的。它是所有的文化和文明与生俱来的。Amartya Sen描述过推理是如何深深的扎根在印度文明里。但是无可否认的是，是西方将推理的艺术带向了更高的层次。并且通过科学革命，启蒙运动，工业革命，西方强有力地崛起，同样重要的是，应用它来解决许多重要的实际问题。然后西方与世界其他地区分享了应用推理的艺术，并且我可以告诉你们，它引起了我所谓的“三次沉默革命”。作为一名亚洲人，我可以描述这些沉默革命是如何让亚洲转变的。
04:48
The first revolution was in economics. Themain reason why so many Asian economies, including the communist societies ofChina and Vietnam, have performed so spectacularly well in economicdevelopment, is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementingfree market economics -- a gift from the West. Adam Smith was right. If you letmarkets decide, productivity goes up.
第一个革命是在经济方面。亚洲经济体，包括社会主义国家在内的中国和越南，能够有着表现如此惊人的经济发展的原因，是因为他们最终完全理解、吸收并且执行了自由市场经济——一个来自西方的馈赠。亚当·密斯是对的。如果你让市场来主导，生产力就会提升。
05:23
The second gift was psychological. Here tooI can speak from personal experience. When I was young, my mother and hergeneration believed that life was determined by fate. You couldn't do anythingabout it. My generation and the generation of Asians after me, believe that wecan take charge and we can improve our lives. And this may explain, forexample, the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today.
第二个馈赠是心理学。这里我同样可以通过我自身的经历来讲述。在我年幼的时候，我的母亲和她那一代人都相信，人的命运是注定的，你无法反抗你的命运。我那个年代和我之后年代的亚洲人，则相信我们可以主导命运并且我们可以改善自己的生活。这或许可以解释，比如，如今在整个亚洲随处可见的突增的创业数量。
06:01
And if you travel through Asia today, youwill also see the results of the third revolution: the revolution of goodgovernance. Now as a result of good governance -- travel in Asia, you seebetter health care, better education, better infrastructure, better publicpolicies. It's a different world.
现在如果你在亚洲旅游，你同样将会看到第三个革命的结果：一个优质治理的革命。由于一个优质的治理——在亚洲周游，你会看到更好的医疗，更好的教育，更完善的基础建设，更人性化的公共政策。它是一个不同的世界。
06:30
Now having transformed the world throughthe sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world, the logical andrational response of the West should have been to say, "Hey, we have toadjust and adapt to this new world." Instead, the West chose to go tosleep. Why did it happen? I believe it happened because the West becamedistracted with two major events. The first event was the end of the Cold War.Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory. The West defeated the mightySoviet Union without firing a shot. Amazing. But you know, when you have agreat victory like this, it also leads to arrogance and hubris. And this hubriswas best captured in a very famous essay by Francis Fukuyama called "TheEnd of History?" Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticatedmessage, but all that the West heard from this essay was that we, the liberal democracies,we have succeeded, we don't have to change, we don't have to adapt, it's onlythe rest of the world that has to change and adapt. Unfortunately, like adangerous opiate, this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West because itput them to sleep just at precisely the moment when China and India were wakingup and the West didn't adjust and adapt.
现在亚洲已经通过与世界其它区域共享西方智慧，改变了世界，西方有逻辑的理性回答应当是“嘿，我们不得不调整自己去适应这个新的世界。”相反，西方选择沉睡。为什么会这样呢？我相信它发生 是因为西方被两个重要的事件分心了。第一个事件是冷战结束。是的，冷战的结束是一个伟大的胜利。西方不费一个子弹就打败了强大的苏联。不可思议。但是要知道，当你有了一个这么伟大的胜利，也同样导致了自大和傲慢。这种自大也被作家福山一篇非常著名的论文《历史的结束》完美的诠释了。福山传递了一条非常复杂的信息，但是西方从这篇论文里获得的所有信息 就是我们，自由民主国家，我们胜利了，我们不需要改变，我们也不需要去适应，世界其它区域需要来改变和适应我们。不幸的是，就像危险的鸦片，这篇论文确实对西方造成了大量的大脑损伤，因为这让它们选择沉睡，恰好在中国和印度苏醒时，而西方并没有调整适应。
08:25
The second major event was 9/11, whichhappened in 2001. And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief. Ipersonally experienced the shock and grief because I was in Manhattan when 9/11happened. 9/11 also generated a lot of anger, and in this anger, the UnitedStates decided to invade Afghanistan and later, Iraq. And unfortunately, partlyas a result of this anger, the West didn't notice the significance of anotherevent that happened also in 2001. China joined the World Trade Organization.
第二个重要事件是发生于2001年的9/11恐怖袭击。众所周知，9/11引起了巨大的震惊和悲痛。我个人也经历了这样的震惊和悲痛，因为当天我就在曼哈顿。9/11同样也引发了众怒，然后在这样的愤怒中，美国决定侵略阿富汗，以及随后的伊拉克。不幸的是，这种愤怒带来的一部分结果就是，西方没有注意到另外一个同样发生在2001年的重要事件。中国加入了世界贸易组织。
09:21
Now, when you suddenly inject 900 millionnew workers into the global capitalist system, it would naturally lead to whatthe economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction. Western workerslost their jobs, they saw their incomes stagnate, clearly people had to thinkabout new competitive policies, workers needed retraining, workers needed newskills. None of this was done. So partly as a result of this, the United Statesof America became the only major developed society where the average income ofthe bottom 50 percent -- yes, 50 percent -- average income went down over a30-year period, from 1980 to 2010. So partly, as a result of this, it ledeventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, who exploited the anger ofthe working classes, who are predominantly white. It also contributed to the riseof populism in Europe. And one wonders, could this populism have been avoidedif the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?
当你突然向全球资本系统注入 9亿名新的劳动力，这自然地就引发了被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特称之为的“创造性破坏”。西方的工人们失去了工作，眼睁睁看着他们的收入停滞，显然人们不得不思考新的竞争策略，工人需要重新培训，需要新的技能。对此，国家没有采取任何行动。所以部分出于这个原因，美国成为了唯一一个主要发达社会中底层50%的平均收入——是的，50%的——平均收入在1980年到2010年的30年间下降了的国家。所以部分由于这个原因，最终导致了在2016年 Donald Trump的当选，他利用了工人阶层的愤怒，这些人信奉白人至上主义。这也促成了欧洲民粹主义的崛起。
10:51
有人可能疑惑，如果西方没有被冷战结束和9/11转移注意力，是不是民粹主义就可以被避免？
11:02
But the big question we face today is this:Is it too late? Has the West lost everything? And my answer is that it's nottoo late. It is possible for the West to recover and come back in strength. Andusing the Western art of reasoning, I would recommend that the West adopt a new"three-m" strategy: minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian.
但是目前我们面对的最大的问题是： 现在是不是太晚了？ 西方已经失去了一切了吗？ 我的答案则是还不算太晚。西方恢复并回到强盛时期 是有可能的。利用西方的推理艺术，我会推荐西方采用一个新“3M”策略：极简主义，多边主义和马基雅弗利主义。
11:37
(Laughter)
（笑声）
11:38
Why minimalist? Now even though Westerndomination has ended, the West continues to intervene and interfere in theaffairs of many other societies. This is unwise. This is generating anger andresentment, especially in Islamic societies. It's also draining the resourcesand spirits of Western societies. Now I know that the Islamic world is havingdifficulties modernizing. It will have to find its way, but it's more likely todo so if it is left alone to do so. Now I can say this with some convictionbecause I come from a region, Southeast Asia, which has almost as many Muslimsas the Arab world. 266 million Muslims. Southeast Asia is also one of the mostdiverse continents on planet earth, because you also have 146 millionChristians, 149 million Buddhists -- Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists-- and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus and evencommunists. And once known as "the Balkans of Asia," southeast Asiatoday should be experiencing a clash of civilizations. Instead, what you see insoutheast Asia is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planetearth with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization,ASEAN. So clearly, minimalism can work. The West should try it out.
为什么是极简主义？尽管西方统治时期已经结束，西方仍然插手和干预了多国内政。这是不明智的。这引发了愤怒和怨恨，尤其是穆斯林社会。这同样也在消耗西方社会的资源和精神。我知道现在穆斯林世界面临着现代化进程的困难。它会找到自己的路，但是如果让它独立发展会更有可能成功。我能够有信心的说这句话, 是因为我来自东南亚地区，那里有着和阿拉伯世界同样数量的穆斯林。2.66亿穆斯林。东南亚是这个地球上最多样化的地区之一，因为那里还有1.46亿基督徒，1.49亿佛教徒——大乘佛教徒和小乘佛教徒——并且还有数以百万计的道教，儒家和印度教徒，甚至共产党员。这里曾经被称为“亚洲巴尔干半岛”，现在应该正在经历文明冲突。相反，你在东南亚看到的是这个地球最和平和繁荣的角落之一，有着第二大成功的地区性多边组织，东盟。很明显，极简主义是可行的。西方应该试一下。
13:16
(Laughter)
（笑声）
13:18
(Applause)
（鼓掌）
13:23
But I'm also aware that minimalism cannotsolve all the problems. There are some hard problems that have to be dealtwith: Al-Qaeda, ISIS -- they remain dangerous threats. They must be found, theymust be destroyed. The question is, is it wise for the West, which represents12 percent of the world's population -- yes, 12 percent -- to fight thesethreats on its own or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world'spopulation? And the logical and rational answer is that you should work withthe remaining 88 percent.
但是我也意识到极简主义并不能解决所有问题。有一些很困难的问题需要被处理——基地组织，ISIS——它们仍然是危险的威胁。它必须得被发现，必须被摧毁。问题是，这对西方是否明智，西方只占全球人口的12%——是的，12%——西方是独自与这些威胁斗争还是与剩下88%的全球人口共同战斗？符合逻辑和理性的答案是，你应该和剩下的88%一起战斗。
13:59
Now where does one go if you want to getthe support of humanity? There's only one place: the United Nations. Now I'vebeen ambassador to the UN twice. Maybe that makes me a bit biased, but I cantell you that working with the UN can lead to success. Why is it that the firstIraq war, fought by President George H. W. Bush, succeeded? While the secondIraq war, fought by his son, President George W. Bush, failed? One key reasonis that the senior Bush went to the UN to get the support of the globalcommunity before fighting the war in Iraq. So multilateralism works. There'sanother reason why we have to work with the UN. The world is shrinking. We arebecoming a small, interdependent, global village. All villages need villagecouncils. And the only global village counsel we have, as the late UNSecretary-General Kofi Annan said, is the UN.
现在如果你想获得人类的支持，你应该去哪里呢？只有一个地方： 联合国。我曾两次担任驻联合国大使。可能这会让我带点偏见，但我可以告诉你们跟联合国合作可以通往成功。为什么乔治·H·W·布什发动的第一次伊拉克战争会取得成功？ 而由他的儿子乔治·W ·布什发动的第二次伊拉克战争 会失败？ 一个关键的原因在于，老布什在发动伊拉克战争前，曾来到联合国寻找全球群体的支持。所以多边主义获得了成功。还有另一个我们为什么必须和联合国合作的理由。世界在缩小。我们正在成为一个小的，相互依存的地球村。所有的村子都需要村委会。而我们唯一拥有的全球村委会，正如已故联合国秘书长科菲·安南所说，是联合国。
15:06
Now as a geopolitical analyst, I do knowthat it's often considered naive to work with the UN. So now let me inject myMachiavellian point. Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in theWest, but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us that the goal ofMachiavelli was to promote virtue, not evil. So what is the Machiavellianpoint? It's this: what is the best way for the West to constrain the new risingpowers that are emerging? And the answer is that the best way to constrain themis through multilateral rules and multilateral norms, multilateral institutionsand multilateral processes.
作为一个地缘政治分析家，我确实知道人们通常认为和联合国合作是幼稚的。那么现在让我把马基雅维利式的观点插进去。马基雅维利是一个经常被西方嘲笑的人物，但自由派哲学家以赛亚•伯林提醒我们，马基雅维利的目标是宣扬美德，而不是邪恶。那么马基雅维利的观点是什么？对于西方来说，约束正在崛起的新兴大国的最佳方式是什么？答案是，约束他们的最好方式是通过多边规则和多边规范、多边机构和多边流程。
16:08
Now let me conclude with one final, bigmessage. As a longtime friend of the West, I'm acutely aware of how pessimisticWestern societies have become. Many in the West don't believe that a greatfuture lies ahead for them, that their children will not have better lives. Soplease do not fear the future or the rest of the world. Now I can say this withsome conviction, because as a Hindu Sindhi, I actually feel a direct culturalconnection with society's diverse cultures and societies all the way fromTehran to Tokyo. And more than half of humanity lives in this space, so withthis direct cultural connection, I can say with great conviction that if theWest chooses to adopt a wiser strategy of being minimalist, multilateral andMachiavellian, the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West. So agreat future lies ahead for humanity. Let's embrace it together.
现在让我用最后一句重要的信息来总结一下。作为一个西方世界的老朋友，我敏锐地意识到西方世界已经变得多么悲观。在西方世界的很多人不相信前面还有美好的未来，他们的孩子不会有更好的生活。所以请不要害怕未来，或害怕世界其他国家。我可以满怀信心地说，因为作为一个印度信德人，从德黑兰到东京，我都能切实感受到与社会多元文化和群体的直接文化联系。地球上超过一半的人生活在这个空间中，所以通过这种直接的文化联系，我可以满怀信心地说，如果西方选择采取一种更明智的策略，成为极简主义者、多边主义者和马基雅维利主义者，世界其他国家将乐于与西方世界合作。那么，人类的美好未来就在前方。让我们共同拥抱它。
17:35
Thank you.
谢谢
17:36
(Applause)
（鼓掌）
