演讲MP3+双语文稿:世界上第一个太空交通监控系统

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听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:世界上第一个太空交通监控系统，希望你会喜欢！

【演讲者及介绍】Moriba Jah

Moriba Jah，空间环境研究者，他研究并预测太空中物体的运动，努力使太空变得安全、可靠和可持续。

【演讲主题】世界上第一个众包的太空交通监控系统

【中英文字幕】

翻译者 psjmz mz 校对者LipengChen

00:13

I am an astrodynamicist -- you know, likethat guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian." And it's my job tostudy and predict motion of objects in space. Currently we track about onepercent of hazardous objects on orbit -- hazardous to services like location,agriculture, banking, television and communications, and soon -- very soon --even the internet itself.

我是一个天体力学家，就像《火星救援》里的瑞奇·珀内尔。而我的工作就是研究并预测太空中物体的运动轨迹。当前我们正在追踪轨道上大约百分之一的危险物体——那些比如威胁到定位服务、农业、银行业、通信与电话业、并且很快——比你想的要快，会威胁到互联网本身的物体。

00:46

Now these services are not protected from,roughly, half a million objects the size of a speck of paint all the way to aschool bus in size. A speck of paint, traveling at the right speed, impactingone of these objects, could render it absolutely useless. But we can't trackthings as small as a speck of paint. We can only track things as small as say,a smartphone. So of this half million objects that we should be concernedabout, we can only track about 26,000 of these objects. And of these 26,000,only 2,000 actually work. Everything else is garbage. That's a lot of garbage.

目前这些服务设施暴露在大约 50 万从一粒油漆 直到校车大小物体的威胁中。一点油漆 以适当的速度运行时，撞击其中一个设备，可能让它彻底报废。但我们无法跟踪像一块油漆那么小的东西。我们只能跟踪到小至，比如说智能手机那样的东西。所以在这 50 万我们应该关心的物体中，我们只能跟踪其中的 26000 个。而这 26000 个中，只有 2000 个真正有用。其他都是垃圾。有很多的垃圾。

01:40

To make things a little bit worse, most ofwhat we launch into orbit never comes back. We send the satellite in orbit, itstops working, it runs out of fuel, and we send something else up ... and thenwe send up something else ... and then something else.

让事情变得更糟糕的是，我们发射到轨道的大部分物体永远不会返回。我们把卫星发射到轨道，它停止了工作，燃料用尽，然后我们发射其他的上去……接着又发射其他的上去……一波接一波。

02:02

And every once in a while, two of thesethings will collide with each other or one of these things will explode, oreven worse, somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites onorbit, and this generates many, many more pieces, most of which also never comeback.

每隔一段时间，其中两个物体会相互碰撞或者其中一个物体会爆炸，或者更糟糕，有人可能恰好在轨道摧毁他们的一颗卫星，这产生了更多的碎片，很多碎片再也不会回到地球。

02:21

Now these things are not just randomlyscattered in orbit. It turns out that given the curvature of space-time, thereare ideal locations where we put some of these satellites -- think of these asspace highways. Very much like highways on earth, these space highways can onlytake up a maximum capacity of traffic to sustain space-safe operations. Unlike highwayson earth, there are actually no space traffic rules. None whatsoever, OK? Wow.What could possibly go wrong with that?

如今这些物体不仅只是随机散落在轨道，实际上，给定时空的曲率，存在一些理想的位置可以放置一些卫星——可以把这些位置 想象成太空高速公路。非常像地球上的高速公路，这些太空高速公路只能占用最大的运输能力来维持空间的安全运作。不像地球上的高速公路，这里事实上没有太空交通规则。一点儿也没有。喔。这能有什么问题呢？

03:03

(Laughter)

（笑声）

03:05

Now, what would be really nice is if we hadsomething like a space traffic map, like a Waze for space that I could look upand see what the current traffic conditions are in space, maybe even predictthese. The problem with that, however, is that ask five different people,"What's going on in orbit? Where are things going?" and you'reprobably going to get 10 different answers. Why is that? It's becauseinformation about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.

如果我们有像太空交通地图那样的东西会很棒，比如 Waze 太空地图可以让我看到太空的交通状况，甚至能进行预测。但问题在于，问 5 个不同的人，“轨道现在怎样了？这些物体去哪了？”你可能会得到 10 个不同的答案。为什么会那样？因为轨道上物体的信息并没有充分共享。

03:37

So what if we had a globally accessible,open and transparent space traffic information system that can inform thepublic of where everything is located to try to keep space safe andsustainable? And what if the system could be used to form evidence-based normsof behavior -- these space traffic rules?

那么，如果我们有一个全球可访问的、 开放和透明的空间交通信息系统，可以告知公众物体的位置，以保证太空安全和可持续会怎样呢？如果这个系统可以用来形成以证据为基础的行为规范——这些太空交通规则，会怎样呢？

03:58

So I developed ASTRIAGraph, the world'sfirst crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system at the University of Texasat Austin. ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around theglobe -- government, industry and academia -- and represents this in a commonframework that anybody can access today.

所以我开发了 ASTRIAGraph，在德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校诞生的世界首个 众包的太空交通监控系统。ASTRIAGraph 结合了来自 全球各地的信息源—— 政府部门，工业界和学术界—— 并用今天任何人都可以访问 的公共框架进行展示。

04:29

But back to my problem of space trafficmap: What if you only had information from the US government? But what do theRussians think? That looks significantly different. Who's right? Who's wrong?What should I believe? What could I trust? This is part of the issue.

但回到我的空间交通地图问题：如果你只有美国政府的信息会怎样？但俄罗斯人会怎么想？这看起来就明显不同。谁是对的？谁是错的？我应该相信什么？我应该信任谁？ 这是一部分问题。

04:56

In the absence of this framework to monitorspace-actor behavior, to monitor activity in space -- where these objects arelocated -- to reconcile these inconsistencies and make this knowledgecommonplace, we actually risk losing the ability to use space for humanity'sbenefit.

缺乏这个框架来监控太空物体行为，去监控太空活动——这些设备的位置——去调和这些矛盾 和让这些知识变得司空见惯，我们其实是冒着失去 太空用于人类福祉的风险。

05:23

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家。

05:24

(Applause and cheers)

（鼓掌并欢呼）