刘文勇GRE写作Argument题库 Day 76

Day 76 Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.

五问：

（1）“Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol”是事实， “We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）最近的这项调查研究是可信的吗？回顾一下：我们认为什么样的调查研究才具备良好的代表性和说服力？原文中是否给出了足够的信息来证明最近的这次调研达到了这些要求？另外，调查中的受访者期待的做法与他们实际上的做法之间，是否有差异？

（3）80%的民众能否代表所有人，剩下的 20%呢？这是否犯了大数谬误呢？ Old Dairy Industries这个公司是否有可能正好满足了剩下 20%的人的需求，从而获得巨大的利润呢？

（4）一个公司的商品销量可能由哪些因素决定？民众对于食品的某种期待，是否可能真的影响商品的销量？你是否能罗列出其他可能影响其销量的因素？比如：价格、好吃程度等。

（5）即便公司的销量真的会下降，就意味着利润额也一样会下降吗？请大家思考一下，利润由哪些因素决定，而销售量是否仅仅是诸多因素中的一个？该公司接下来会不会也大力生产 low-fat products呢？另外，食品业是否可能只是该公司众多产业中的一个分支呢？