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双语·股票大作手回忆录 第十八章

所属教程:译林版·股票大作手回忆录

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2022年05月07日

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HISTORY repeats itself all the time in Wall Street.Do you remember a story I told you about covering my shorts at the time Stratton had corn cornered?Well,another time I used practically the same tactics in the stock market.The stock was Tropical Trading.I have made money bulling it and also bearing it.It always was an active stock and a favourite with adventurous traders.The inside coterie has been accused time and again by the newspapers of being more concerned over the fluctuations in the stock than with encouraging permanent investment in it.The other day one of the ablest brokers I know asserted that not even Daniel Drew in Erie or H.O.Havemeyer in Sugar developed so perfect a method for milking the market for a stock as President Mulligan and his friends have done in Tropical Trading.Many times they have encouraged the bears to sell TT short and then have proceeded to squeeze them with business-like thoroughness.There was no more vindictiveness about the process than is felt by a hydraulic press—or no more squeamishness,either.

Of course,there have been people who have spoken about certain“unsavory incidents”in the market career of TT stock.But I dare say these critics were suffering from the squeezing.Why do the room traders,who have suffered so often from the loaded dice of the insiders,continue to go up against the game?Well,for one thing they like action and they certainly get it in Tropical Trading.No prolonged spells of dulness.No reasons asked or given.No time wasted.No patience strained by waiting for the tipped movement to begin.Always enough stock to go around—except when the short interest is big enough to make the scarcity worth while.One born every minute!

It so happened some time ago that I was in Florida on my usual winter vacation.I was fishing and enjoying myself with out any thought of the markets excepting when we received a batch of newspapers.One morning when the semi-weekly mail came in I looked at the stock quotations and saw that Tropical Trading was selling at 155.The last time I'd seen a quotation in it,I think,was around 140.My opinion was that we were going into a bear market and I was biding my time before going short of stocks.But there was no mad rush.That was why I was fishing and out of hearing of the ticker.I knew that I'd be back home when the real call came.In the meanwhile nothing that I did or failed to do would hurry matters a bit.

The behaviour of Tropical Trading was the outstanding feature of the market,according to the newspapers I got that morning.It served to crystallise my general bearishness because I thought it particularly asinine for the insiders to run up the price of TT in the face of the heaviness of the general list.There are times when the milking process must be suspended.What is abnormal is seldom a desirable factor in a trader's calculations and it looked to me as if the marking up of that stock were a capital blunder.Nobody can make blunders of that magnitude with impunity;not in the stock market.

After I got through reading the newspapers I went back to my fishing but I kept thinking of what the insiders in Tropical Trading were trying to do.That they were bound to fail was as certain as that a man is bound to smash himself if he jumps from the roof of a twenty-story building without a parachute.I couldn't think of anything else and finally I gave up trying to fish and sent off a telegram to my brokers to sell 2000 shares of TT at the market.After that I was able to go back to my fishing.I did pretty well.

That afternoon I received the reply to my telegram by special courier.My brothers reported that they had sold the 2000 shares of Tropical Trading at 153.So far so good.I was selling short on a declining market,which was as it should be.But I could not fish any more.I was too far away from a quotation board.I discovered this after I began to think of all the reasons why Tropical Trading should go down with the rest of the market instead of going up on inside manipulation.I therefore left my fishing camp and returned to Palm Beach;or,rather,to the direct wire to New York.

The moment I got to Palm Beach and saw what the misguided insiders were still trying to do,I let them have a second lot of 2000 TT.Back came the report and I sold another 2000 shares.The market behaved excellently.That is,it declined on my selling.Everything being satisfactory I went out and had a chair ride.But I wasn't happy.The more I thought the unhappier it made me to think that I hadn't sold more.So back I went to the broker's office and sold another 2000 shares.

I was happy only when I was selling that stock.Presently I was short 10,000 shares.Then I decided to return to New York.I had business to do now.My fishing I would do some other time.

When I arrived in New York I made it a point to get a line on the company's business,actual and prospective.What I learned strengthened my conviction that the insiders had been worse than reckless in jacking up the price at a time when such an advance was not justified either by the tone of the general market or by the company's earnings.

The rise,illogical and ill-timed though it was,had developed some public following and this doubtless encouraged the insiders to pursue their unwise tactics.Therefore I sold more stock.The insiders ceased their folly.So I tested the market again and again,in accordance with my trading methods,until finally I was short 30,000 shares of the stock of the Tropical Trading Company.By then the price was 133.

I had been warned that the TT insiders knew the exact whereabouts of every stock certificate in the Street and the precise dimensions and identity of the short interest as well as other facts of tactical importance.They were able men and shrewd traders.Altogether it was a dangerous combination to go up against.But facts are facts and the strongest of all allies are conditions.

Of course,on the way down from 153 to 133 the short interest had grown and the public that buys on reactions began to argue as usual:That stock had been considered a good purchase at 153 and higher.Now 20 points lower,it was necessarily a much better purchase.Same stock;same dividend rate;same officers;same business.Great bargain!

The public's purchases reduced the floating supply and the insiders,knowing that a lot of room traders were short,thought the time propitious for a squeezing.The price was duly run up to 150.I daresay there was plenty of covering but I stayed pat.Why shouldn't I ?The insiders might know that a short line of 30,000 shares had not been taken in but why should that frighten me?The reasons that had impelled me to begin selling at 153 and keep at it on the way down to 133,not only still existed but were stronger than ever.The insiders might desire to force me to cover but they adduced no convincing arguments.Fundamental conditions were fighting for me.It was not difficult to be both fearless and patient.A speculator must have faith in himself and in his judgment.The late Dickson G.Watts,ex-President of the New York Cotton Exchange and famous author of“Speculation as a Fine Art,”says that courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind.With me,I cannot fear to be wrong because I never think I am wrong until I am proven wrong.In fact,I am uncomfortable unless I am capitalising my experience.The course of the market at a given time does not necessarily prove me wrong.It is the character of the advance—or of the decline—that determines for me the correctness or the fallacy of my market position.I can only rise by knowledge.If I fall it must be by my own blunders.

There was nothing in the character of the rally from 133 to 150 to frighten me into covering and presently the stock,as was to be expected,started down again.It broke 140 before the inside clique began to give it support.Their buying was coincident with a flood of bull rumors about the stock.The company,we heard,was making perfectly fabulous profits,and the earnings justified an increase in the regular dividend rate.Also,the short interest was said to be perfectly huge and the squeeze of the century was about to be inflicted on the bear party in general and in particular on a certain operator who was more than over-extended.I couldn't begin to tell you all I heard as they ran the price up ten points.

The manipulation did not seem particularly dangerous to me but when the price touched 149 I decided that it was not wise to let the Street accept as true all the bull statements that were floating around.Of course,there was nothing that I or any other rank outsider could say that would carry conviction either to the frightened shorts or to those credulous customers of commission houses that trade on hearsay tips.The most effective retort courteous is that which the tape alone can print.People will believe that when they will not believe an affidavit from any living man,much less one from a chap who is short 30,000 shares.So I used the same tactics that I did at the time of the Stratton corner in corn,when I sold oats to make the traders bearish on corn.Experience and memory again.

When the insiders jacked up the price of Tropical Trading with a view to frightening the shorts I didn't try to check the rise by selling that stock.I was already short 30,000 shares of it which was as big a percentage of the floating supply as I thought wise to be short of.I did not propose to put my head into the noose so obligingly held open for me—the second rally was really an urgent invitation.What I did when TT touched 149 was to sell about 10,000 shares of Equatorial Commercial Corporation.This company owned a large block of Tropical Trading.

Equatorial Commercial,which was not as active a stock as TT,broke badly on my selling,as I had foreseen;and,of course,my purpose was achieved.When the traders—and the customers of the commission houses who had listened to the uncontradicted bull dope on TT—saw that the rise in Tropical synchronised with heavy selling and a sharp break in Equatorial,they naturally concluded that the strength of TT was merely a smoke-screen—a manipulated advance obviously designed to facilitate inside liquidation in Equatorial Commercial,which was largest holder of TT stock.It must be both long stock and inside stock in Equatorial,because no outsider would dream of selling so much short stock at the very moment when Tropical Trading was so very strong.So they sold Tropical Trading and checked the rise in that stock,the insiders very properly not wishing to take all the stock that was pressed for sale.The moment the insiders took away their support the price of TT declined.The traders and principal commission houses now sold some Equatorial also and I took in my short line in that at a small profit.I hadn't sold it to make money out of the operation but to check the rise in TT.

Time and again the Tropical Trading insiders and their hard-working publicity man flooded the Street with all manner of bull items and tried to put up the price.And every time they did I sold Equatorial Commercial short and covered it with TT reacted and carried E C with it.It took the wind out of the manipulators' sails.The price of TT finally went down to 125 and the short interest really grew so big that the insiders were enabled to run it up 20 or 25 points.This time it was a legitimate enough drive against an over-extended short interest;but while I foresaw the rally I did not cover,not wishing to lose my position.Before Equatorial Commercial could advance in sympathy with the rise in TT I sold a raft of it short—with the usual results.This gave the lie to the bull talk in TT which had got quite boisterous after the latest sensational rise.

By this time the general market had grown quite weak.As I told you,it was the conviction that we were in a bear market that started me selling TT short in the fishing-camp in Florida.I was short of quite a few other stocks but TT was my pet.Finally,general conditions proved too much for the inside clique to defy and TT hit the toboggan slide.It went below 120 for the first time in years;then below 110;below par;and still I did not cover.One day when the entire market was extremely weak Tropical Trading broke 90 and on the demoralization I covered.Same old reason!I had the opportunity—the big market and the weakness and the excess of sellers over buyers.I may tell you,even at the risk of appearing to be monotonously bragging of my cleverness,that I took in my 30,000 shares of TT at practically the lowest prices of the movement.But I wasn't thinking of covering at the bottom.I was intent on turning my paper profits into cash without losing much of the profit in the changing.

I stood pat throughout because I knew my position was sound.I wasn't bucking the trend of the market or going against basic conditions but the reverse,and that was what made me so sure of the failure of an over-confident inside clique.What they tried to do others had tried before and it had always failed.The frequent rallies,even when I knew as well as anybody that they were due,could not frighten me.I knew I'd do much better in the end by staying pat than by trying to cover to put out a new short line at a higher price.By sticking to the position that I felt was right I made over a million dollars.I was not indebted to hunches or to skilful tape reading or to stubborn courage.It was a dividend declared by my faith in my judgment and not by my cleverness or by my vanity.Knowledge is power and power need not fear lies—not even when the tape prints them.The retraction follows pretty quickly.

A year later,TT was jacked up again to 150 and hung around there for a couple of weeks.The entire market was entitled to a good reaction for it had risen uninterruptedly and it did not bull any longer.I know because I tested it.Now,the group to which TT belonged had been suffering from very poor business and I couldn't see anything to bull those stocks on anyhow,even if the rest of the market were due for a rise,which it wasn't.So I began to sell Tropical Trading.I intended to put out 10,000 shares in all.The price broke on my selling.I couldn't see that there was any support whatever.Then suddenly,the character of the buying changed.

I am not trying to make myself out a wizard when I assure you that I could tell the moment support came in.It instantly struck me that if the insiders in that stock,who never felt a moral obligation to keep the price up,were now buying the stock in the face of a declining general market there must be a reason.They were not ignorant asses nor philanthropists nor yet bankers concerned with keeping the price up to sell more securities over the counter.The price rose notwithstanding my selling and the selling of others.At 153 I covered my 10,000 shares and at 156 I actually went long because by that time the tape told me the line of least resistance was upward.I was bearish on the general market but I was confronted by a trading condition in a certain stock and not by a speculative theory in general.The price went out of sight,above 200.It was the sensation of the year.I was flattered by reports spoken and printed that I had been squeezed out of eight or nine millions of dollars.As a matter of fact,instead of being short I was long of TT all the way up.In fact,I held on a little too long and let some of my paper profits get away.Do you wish to know why I did?Because I thought the TT insiders would naturally do what I would have done had I been in their place.But that was something I had no business to think because my business is to trade—that is,to stick to the facts before me and not to what I think other people ought to do.

华尔街上历史总在重演。你是否记得我曾讲起过的一个故事,说的是当年斯特雷登在抛空玉米的时候,我怎样去回补空头。有一次,我在股市上也用过类似的办法。这只股票是热带贸易公司的股票,不管我卖出还是买进都赚到过钱。热带贸易公司股票的市场交易一直比较活跃,那些喜欢赌一把的股民最喜欢这只股票。报纸一再指责内线集团,说他们比较关心股价的波动,比较不鼓励长期投资这只股票。一天,我认识的一个高水平营业员说,就算丹尼尔·德鲁在伊利公司股票或者哈弗梅尔在美国糖业公司的股票上,都没有热带贸易公司总裁穆里根和他的朋友们在该公司的股票上那样,使用那么完美的办法,赚取了那么多的钱。他们鼓动空头们放空热带贸易股票,再迅速而直接地把他们轧空。空头们在这样的轧空过程中感觉到的恐惧,不比被水压机压迫身体感觉到的恐惧少,他们一点儿都不装模作样。

当然了,也确实有人说过,在热带贸易公司股票的交易过程中,出现过很多名声不好的事情,可我也敢断定,这么说的那些人曾经都有过被轧空的经历。既然场内交易的人经常会被公司内部的人耍弄,那他们为什么还要玩这个游戏呢?嗯,至少有一个原因,那就是他们都喜欢比较活跃的市场。热带贸易公司的股票确实比较活跃,不存在价格持续不变动的情况。不需要打听或者说明原因,没必要浪费时间,也不必紧张,只要耐心等着行情记录中股价的波动。除非空头部位能够厉害到让股票变得很少、很贵,不然总会有大量股票在交易。这是一只随时都可能令人振奋的股票。

这件事发生在不久之前,我那时候与以往一样,在佛罗里达州度假。我在钓鱼,过得非常愉快。除了每过几天会收到一堆报纸外,完全不去考虑与交易市场有关的事。一天早上,是每周送两次邮件的时候,我看了股票价格,发现热带贸易公司股价为155美元。而上次我看到的时候它大概是140美元。我觉得很快就面临空头市场,我在伺机而动,准备卖空股票。可我不必那么忙着去卖,这也是我为什么只钓鱼而不管股市行情的原因。我一旦看到真正的机会,必定会去利用。同时,无论我做事与否,都不会着急地去赶时间。

从我那天上午收到的报纸看,热带贸易公司出现的情况在市场中并不多见,这事让我对股市综合行情的看淡想法变得更加具体了,因为我觉得在股市行情不太好的时候,公司内部的人去拉抬股价,是非常愚笨的做法。有时,公司内部必须要停止从市场中榨取利润。按照股民们的思维,那些不正常的事情,他们都很讨厌。而我觉得,拉抬这只股票的价格,是种错误做法。没有人能犯这么大的错而不用付出代价,在股市中不会的。

看完报纸后,我又去钓鱼,同时我也一直在想热带贸易公司内部有什么打算。我觉得他们必败无疑,这就如同一个人从20层楼上跳下,却没有带着降落伞一样,粉身碎骨是一定的。我没心思去想别的事情,最后只得放弃了钓鱼,向我的一位经纪人发了一封电报,授权他按照市价卖掉2000股的热带贸易。这么做完后,我才安心去钓鱼。我的成绩很不错。

下午的时候,我收到了回复电报。经纪人说,他们按照153美元的股价,替我卖了2000股热带贸易。此时,一切都很顺利。在股市下跌时放空,这是理所当然的。可我再不能继续钓鱼了,离股市价格显示牌太远了。之所以这么觉得,是因为我需要综合考虑所有的因素,来为热带贸易为什么会跟着综合股市一起下跌,却没有因为公司内部的炒作而逆行上涨找原因。所以我从钓鱼场返回棕榈滩,这样就可以直接与纽约通话了。

到了棕榈滩,我发现他们公司的内部人士还在继续做着抬高股价的错事,于是我就放空,又卖了2000股。等拿到单子后,我接着卖了2000股。市场情况也特别好,因为我的卖出,股价在下跌,所有的表现我都很满意,于是出门去欢快一下,可我也并不特别开心,我在想自己为什么没有卖出更多,因此我又返回交易厅,再次卖掉了2000股。

只有往外卖这只股票时,我才能感到舒坦。不久,我就又卖了1万股,然后做出了回纽约的决定。钓鱼暂且搁在一边,我还有其他事情需要处理。

到纽约后,我开始尽力去了解热带贸易公司的详情,包括现状和未来发展。了解得越多,越让我的信念牢固,我确定他们内部的做法不只是莽撞而已,比这样还糟糕,他们竟然在股市和公司盈余都不利于他们的时候操控抬高股价。

这样形成的一点儿涨势既不是时候也不合理,可那些普通的股民,却跟着买进,而这个小表现也鼓舞了公司内部人,他们继续做着愚蠢的举动。所以我放空更多,内线集团停止了拉抬,我按照自己的方式,多次试探,最终一共放空了热带贸易的3万股,此时的股价是133美元。

有人劝我说,热带贸易公司内部清楚每只股票的下落,而且还知道是谁在做着多大的放空部位,以及其他很重要的信息。他们很有能耐,又很精明,反正与他们对着干是非常危险的做法。可事实就是如此,你最可靠得力的战友是股市行情走向。

当然,从153跌至133时,空头部位增加,那些在回调的时候买进的普通股民与以往一样,说当热带贸易高于153时,人们都觉得很值得买进,现在跌了20个点,那就肯定是更值得买了。股票还是那个股票,利率也没变,经营者和业务都是一样的,这可真是来之不易的大便宜啊!

人们的买进,让在外流通的股票供应变少了,公司内部知道有很多的场内营业员卖掉了这只股,觉得轧空的时机到了,于是巧妙地把股价拉抬到150美元。我能肯定,很多人都在回补,可我就是纹丝不动,我为什么要不安呢?内部人或许清楚还有3万股没有回补,可这也没理由让我害怕。我在153美元开始放空,一直到133美元,促使我一路放空的原因还在,而且比之前更加充分。公司内部可能想逼我回补,可他们没有让我看到更加有说服力的因素。股市的基本状况在替我挡箭。要本着耐心和勇气应对并不是难事,投机必须要对自己和自己的判断充满信心。狄克森·华慈,这位已故的纽约棉花交易所前主席、《投机艺术》的知名作者曾经说过:“能够很自信地按照自己的决定展开行动,这就是投机人的勇气。”我不害怕自己会出错,因为除非事实证明我的确错了,不然我不会觉得自己有错。其实,我只有好好使用自己的经验,才能够心安理得。在有段时间,市场不一定会验证出我犯的错,而只有股票涨跌的情况能验证我的部位的对错。我只能够凭借着自己掌握的知识取胜,如果我失败了,也必定是我的错误造成的。

从133涨到150美元的过程中,什么情况都不会吓着我,让我回补。没过多久,这只股票就跟我预估的一样再次下跌了。跌破了140美元后,公司内部才开始应对,散播了很多跟这只股票相关的利多谣言,说这只股票还会上涨,同时他们也在买进。据说这家公司赚了巨额利润,那些利润足够让他们提高固定利率,而且空头部位好像也很大,这场世纪性的轧空马上开始打击普通空头了,放空特别严重的交易人更会受到特别严重的打击。当他们将股价抬高了10个点的时候,我都说不清听到了多少相关的谣言了。

对我个人来说,这场操控没太大的危险,可在股价到149美元的时候,我就确定,华尔街对所有有关那只股票利多的谣言都信以为真了,传播开来,对我来说并不合适。当然,我或者任何其他外人的话,都不值得那些失措的空头去相信,也不会让交易所那些靠听信内幕消息的无知轻信者相信。效果最好的反击手段,只有股市大盘才能讲得出来,而且只有它才能那样讲。谁都相信股市大盘,而不轻信任何喘气的人所说的话,更不会相信我这个卖了3万股的空头说的话。因此,我用上了在斯特雷登轧空玉米时采取的方式,卖掉燕麦,让交易者们看空玉米,这还是我的经验和记忆在发挥作用。

公司内部抬高股价吓唬那些空头时,我并没有用卖出这只股票的方式设法阻止股价上涨。我已经卖了3万股,在外面流通的股数里占比已经很大了,如果再卖就不是明智之举了。他们这么热心地设好圈套,就等着我把头伸进去。股价第二次反弹,的确就是他们多么想让我入套的表现,我不会自讨苦吃。当热带贸易到了149美元时,我要做的是卖出1万左右赤道商业公司的股票。热带贸易公司在这家的持股非常大。

赤道商业公司股票没热带贸易公司那么活跃,果然不出我所料,我抛售后价格大跌,我自然实现了目的。包括交易厅里那些指望热带贸易公司的多头消息能够畅通无阻的人们在内的所有交易分子看到这样的现状,自然就觉得赤道商业在热带贸易上涨的时候下跌,肯定是有问题,绝对的操控炒作,是为了让公司内部的人出售赤道商业公司的股票,而这样大量的操作肯定是赤道商业公司内部人手里的股票在交易,除此之外没有谁会在热带贸易股票涨势正迅猛的时候,卖掉这么多的股票。所以,人们跟着卖出热带贸易股票,这就遏止了它的上涨势头,公司内部根本不会去支撑那么多抢着卖出股票的人们造成的局面,他们没有了支撑,股价立马下跌。股民和一些大型的交易所也卖了一些赤道商业公司的股票,我回补了赤道商业的空头,赚了一点儿小钱。我卖出的时候想的不是赚钱,而是打击热带贸易股票的上涨势头。

热带贸易公司内部和公关人员持续在华尔街上散播各种该股票要上涨的消息,想把股价拉起来。他们一这么做,我就放空赤道商业股票,并且在赤道商业回调、热带贸易股价下跌时,回补赤道商业的空头部位。这样就有力地打击了他们内部集团的操作。热带贸易的股价最终跌到了125美元,放空部位非常大,公司内部能将股价上拉20至25个点,由于空头确实很大,这样的涨势很合理。只是,我预测到了这样的小反弹,但却没去回补,我不想失去自己的头寸。赤道商业配合热带贸易上涨的时候,我又卖出了一大把赤道商业股,取得的效果也与前面一样,让人们看清了热带贸易利多消息的真面目——这只股票经过猛烈上涨后,多头消息又充斥坊间了。

此时,股市大盘回归疲软,正如我之前所讲,我是相信即将要进入熊市了,才在佛罗里达钓鱼的时候就开始往外放空。至于其他股票,我也卖出了不少,不过热带贸易是我的最爱。整体股市在最后变得不堪重负,热带贸易内部也没办法再抵挡,于是股价大跌。这是它多年以来首次跌破120美元,然后又跌到了110美元以下,最后跌破面值,而我还是没有回补。有一天,市场非常疲弱,热带贸易跌破了90美元。我凭借与以往一样的理由,在市场的混乱中回补了。我抓住了机会——市场交易量巨大,行情不好,抛售市场比买进市场大很多。就算被你认为是没意思的自吹自擂,我也要告诉你,我基本上在跌到最低点的时候,回补了我的3万股。只是,我之前没想过要在跌势最低时回补,只是想把账面上的利润套现,在套现过程中不失去太多的利润。

整个过程我都把控得很平稳,我清楚自己的头寸正确。我没有与市场走向相抗衡,没有违背股市基本行情,而是顺应了市场,正因为这个原因,我才非常确定,内线集团一定会溃败。他们想做以前其他人试验过的事情,而这样注定会一败涂地。就算我像其他人那样,知道习惯性的反弹马上要到了,也没有被唬住。我清楚,只要能够忍耐得住,结果必然比想办法去回补,再在价格较高时放空要好很多。我坚守了自认为对的头寸,赚了100多万。之所以有这个结果,并非与第六感有关,也不是因为我有多么厉害的解盘技巧或者愚勇,而是源自我的自信心,我不是靠聪明或虚荣去赚钱的。知识给了我力量,有了力量就不会怕那些谎言,即使它们清晰地出现在报价牌上,也只会昙花一现。

过了一年,热带贸易股票又涨到了150美元,而且盘踞了好几周时间,整体市场也因为持续的涨势大幅回调,这时的市场已经不是多头了。我清楚这点,因为我已经投石问路了。热带贸易公司所属集团的发展情势很不好,我不知道它们怎么才能让股票上涨,就算大盘上涨,也没办法,更何况大盘没一点儿迹象表明要上涨。于是,我就开始抛售热带贸易公司股票,准备放空1万股。我的这个做法,让股价又下跌了。我没发现有任何支撑。然后,买盘的性质突然就发生了变化。

我说自己能够在支撑出现时看出来,不是说自己多么厉害。我忽然觉得,在大盘下跌的时候,公司内部大量买进,里面一定是有原因的。这些人不会感觉到道德上应该具备什么样的义务,来维持住股价。他们不是没用的蠢货,不是慈善家,也不是想拉高股价以便在柜台多卖些股票的承销银行家。我和很多人都放空了,但热带贸易的股价还是在持续上涨。股价在153美元时,我回补了2万股空头;涨到156美元时,我已经翻空为多了。因为,我看到的这个时候的股市行情最小阻力线是上涨的。我不看好整个股市,可这是一只股票的实际交易情势,而不是一般的投机理论。它涨势凶猛,达到了200美元之上,成了这一年最引人关注的股票。广播报纸都报道说,我在被轧空的过程中损失了八九百万美元。但其实,我不但没做空,还已经在做多了。我持股的时间稍微长了些,因此损失了一点儿账面利润。你想不想知道我这么做的缘由?因为我想,如果我是热带贸易公司内部人士的话,我当然会做该做的事情,可这样的事我不去想它,我做的是投机交易,就要照着眼前的事实来做,而不能理所当然地依靠我自以为别人应当做的事情去操作。

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