VOA慢速英语：习近平第三任期是喜是忧？未来十年中国经济或难再创辉煌
Is Xi Jinping's third term a joy or a worry? In the next ten years, China's economy may not be able to create new glory again
WASHINGTON -
China's overriding task now is to ensure the smooth convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Unprecedentedly strict network control, strict urban stability maintenance atmosphere, and even securities dealers have been notified not to sell large stocks during the meeting to maintain the stability of the stock market.
The protagonist of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is Xi Jinping. If nothing else, Xi Jinping will officially start his third five-year term as head of the Communist Party at the meeting. After the end of the Cultural Revolution, the CCP leadership with Deng Xiaoping at its core learned from Mao Zedong and established a rule that the term of office of leaders should not exceed two years, in order to prevent the recurrence of the "lifetime system" and cause great harm to the country.
However, observers say, the one issue that will most likely trouble Xi Jinping as he begins his second decade in office is China's economy. In the first ten years of his administration, China's economy has entered a stage of low-speed growth from a high-speed growth stage, and this slowing trend will be difficult to improve in the future according to the effect of the economic policies he adopted in the first ten years. Many experts believe that in the next decade, China's economy will not be more brilliant, only more unstable.
In the third quarter of this year, or in the three months of July, August and September, China's economic growth rate was only 2.5 percent year-on-year, an AFP survey of a group of economic experts showed on Saturday. . Many other economic institutions have recently made similar downward revisions to China's economic growth rate. That dashed Beijing's hopes of a sharp economic recovery in the second half of the year.
Since 2022, China's economy has been declining all the way. There was still a 4.8% growth in the first quarter, which almost collapsed in the second quarter, with the growth rate plunging to 0.4%. Experts and scholars in Beijing have predicted that the second half of the year will improve in an all-round way, and a retaliatory growth of more than 8% is expected, and the annual growth target of 5.5% is likely to be maintained. If the 2.5% forecast by experts is roughly accurate, then 5.5% will remain an ironic indicator on the historical record.
AFP experts predict that China's economy will grow by 3% this year, less than half of last year's 8.1%. This may be the slowest growth rate in China in 40 years, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in Wuhan in 2020 caused the economic growth rate to drop to 2.3%.
One of the main reasons for the rapid slowdown in China's economic growth is Beijing's policy of clearing and fighting the epidemic. Although China clearly controlled the spread of the virus by closing down the city in the early stage of the epidemic, the effectiveness of this policy was greatly reduced after the emergence of the more infectious Omicron strain. The virus cannot be prevented, but the main restrictive measures under the reset policies such as isolation and city closure have caused huge damage to people's daily life and the normal operation of the economy.
China's economy has been growing rapidly for decades, and many economists optimistically predicted that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States by 2030 and become the world's largest economy, CNN said on Saturday. But now, China's economic development is clearly in deep trouble.
中国翻译：
习近平第三任期是喜是忧？未来十年中国经济或难再创辉煌
华盛顿 —
中国目前压倒一切的任务就是确保中共二十大的顺利召开。网络控制空前严厉、城市维稳气氛森严、连证券交易商上也得到通知不要在会议期间抛售大宗股票，保持股市的稳定。
这次二十大的主角是习近平。如果不出意外，习近平将在这次会议上正式开启他作为中共党魁的第三个五年任期。文革结束后，以邓小平为核心的中共领导层从毛泽东身上吸取了教训，设立了领导人任期不得超过两年的规则，以防止“终身制”的重演，给国家造成巨大的危害。
但是，观察家认为，在习近平执政的第二个十年开始之际，最让有可能让他感到棘手的一个问题应该就是中国经济。在他执政的头十年，中国经济从高速增长阶段进入了低速增长阶段，而且如果按照他在头十年中所采取的经济政策效果看这种放缓趋势未来将会很难好转。许多专家认为，在未来十年，中国经济不会再创辉煌，只会更变得更不稳定。
法新社周六对一组经济专家进行的调查显示，在今年第三季度，也就是七、八、九三个月里，中国经济增速同比增长只有2.5%。其它许多经济机构最近陆续对中国的经济增速做了类似的下调。这打碎了北京对今年下半年经济大幅回升的希望。
进入2022年以来，中国经济一路下滑。第一季度还有4.8%的增长，到第二季度几乎崩溃，增速锐减到0.4%。北京的御用专家学者们曾纷纷预测，下半年将全面好转，可望出现8%以上的报复性增长，全年5.5%的增长目标有可能保住。如果专家预测的2.5%大体是准确的，那么，5.5%将会以一个具有讽刺性的指标留在历史的记录上。
法新社的专家们预测，今年全年中国经济的增速为3%，连去年8.1%的一半都不到。这可能是中国四十年来最低的增速，而2020年武汉爆发新冠肺炎更是经济增速下降至2.3%。
造成中国经济增速急速放慢的主要原因之一是北京一直坚持的清零抗疫政策。中国虽然在疫情初期通过封城明显地控制了病毒的传播，但在具有更强传染力的奥密克戎毒株出现以后，这种政策的效力大打折扣。病毒防不胜防，反而是那些隔离、封城等清零政策下的主要限制性措施给人们的日常生活和经济的正常运转造成了巨大的破坏。
美国有线电视新闻网CNN周六说，之前，中国经济高速增长数十年，许多经济家乐观预测，中国GDP将在2030年超过美国，成为世界最大的经济体。但是眼下，中国经济发展显然已经深陷困境。
CNN说，习近平虽然是中国权力最大的领导人，但中国的巨大经济成就显然与他无关。相反，习近平近年来采取的经济政策不仅没有推动经济的增长，反而造成许多严重的问题。
在最近两年，中国一流的民营科技企业在习近平推动的所谓“反垄断”和“国家安全”的名义下遭到了严厉的整肃和处罚，阿里巴巴、腾讯、滴滴出行等大批企业盈利大幅缩水、裁员持续不断，陷入了艰难自保的境地。
据中国方面的数据，阿里巴巴和腾讯在过去两年市值损失了一万多亿美元。
2020年，中国监管部门对中国经济的支柱行业—-房地产开发商进行风险治理，切断了银行向债务杠杆率高的企业发放贷款，捅破了该行业的巨大的债务泡沫。当一个个大型开发商陷入违约危机，烂尾楼引发业主集体停贷的社会骚乱时，当局被迫改变政策，给这些开发商和业主提供信贷帮助，以度过危机。
然而没人能保证政府出手就一定能化解开发商的违约潮。中国还必须面对国际局势的动荡、俄乌战争带来的能源供应渠道重新组合、地缘政治大洗牌，尤其是中国坚持保留“武统”台湾所造成政治涟漪效应，等等。所有上述不稳定的因素都会间接或直接影响到中国经济能否在高速发展创奇迹。有专家指出，目前的国际局势类似第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战之间的局势。当时并未真正结束的一战为二战爆发埋下了导火索。如果因上述能源、俄乌战争加剧造成全球供应链重组、国际联盟重组以及中国不得不以武力统一台湾，那中国则将完全丧失再创经济辉煌的机遇，习近平第三次连任也救不了中国。
WASHINGTON -
China's overriding task now is to ensure the smooth convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Unprecedentedly strict network control, strict urban stability maintenance atmosphere, and even securities dealers have been notified not to sell large stocks during the meeting to maintain the stability of the stock market.
The protagonist of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is Xi Jinping. If nothing else, Xi Jinping will officially start his third five-year term as head of the Communist Party at the meeting. After the end of the Cultural Revolution, the CCP leadership with Deng Xiaoping at its core learned from Mao Zedong and established a rule that the term of office of leaders should not exceed two years, in order to prevent the recurrence of the "lifetime system" and cause great harm to the country.
However, observers say, the one issue that will most likely trouble Xi Jinping as he begins his second decade in office is China's economy. In the first ten years of his administration, China's economy has entered a stage of low-speed growth from a high-speed growth stage, and this slowing trend will be difficult to improve in the future according to the effect of the economic policies he adopted in the first ten years. Many experts believe that in the next decade, China's economy will not be more brilliant, only more unstable.
In the third quarter of this year, or in the three months of July, August and September, China's economic growth rate was only 2.5 percent year-on-year, an AFP survey of a group of economic experts showed on Saturday. . Many other economic institutions have recently made similar downward revisions to China's economic growth rate. That dashed Beijing's hopes of a sharp economic recovery in the second half of the year.
Since 2022, China's economy has been declining all the way. There was still a 4.8% growth in the first quarter, which almost collapsed in the second quarter, with the growth rate plunging to 0.4%. Experts and scholars in Beijing have predicted that the second half of the year will improve in an all-round way, and a retaliatory growth of more than 8% is expected, and the annual growth target of 5.5% is likely to be maintained. If the 2.5% forecast by experts is roughly accurate, then 5.5% will remain an ironic indicator on the historical record.
AFP experts predict that China's economy will grow by 3% this year, less than half of last year's 8.1%. This may be the slowest growth rate in China in 40 years, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in Wuhan in 2020 caused the economic growth rate to drop to 2.3%.
One of the main reasons for the rapid slowdown in China's economic growth is Beijing's policy of clearing and fighting the epidemic. Although China clearly controlled the spread of the virus by closing down the city in the early stage of the epidemic, the effectiveness of this policy was greatly reduced after the emergence of the more infectious Omicron strain. The virus cannot be prevented, but the main restrictive measures under the reset policies such as isolation and city closure have caused huge damage to people's daily life and the normal operation of the economy.
China's economy has been growing rapidly for decades, and many economists optimistically predicted that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States by 2030 and become the world's largest economy, CNN said on Saturday. But now, China's economic development is clearly in deep trouble.
中国翻译：
习近平第三任期是喜是忧？未来十年中国经济或难再创辉煌
华盛顿 —
中国目前压倒一切的任务就是确保中共二十大的顺利召开。网络控制空前严厉、城市维稳气氛森严、连证券交易商上也得到通知不要在会议期间抛售大宗股票，保持股市的稳定。
这次二十大的主角是习近平。如果不出意外，习近平将在这次会议上正式开启他作为中共党魁的第三个五年任期。文革结束后，以邓小平为核心的中共领导层从毛泽东身上吸取了教训，设立了领导人任期不得超过两年的规则，以防止“终身制”的重演，给国家造成巨大的危害。
但是，观察家认为，在习近平执政的第二个十年开始之际，最让有可能让他感到棘手的一个问题应该就是中国经济。在他执政的头十年，中国经济从高速增长阶段进入了低速增长阶段，而且如果按照他在头十年中所采取的经济政策效果看这种放缓趋势未来将会很难好转。许多专家认为，在未来十年，中国经济不会再创辉煌，只会更变得更不稳定。
法新社周六对一组经济专家进行的调查显示，在今年第三季度，也就是七、八、九三个月里，中国经济增速同比增长只有2.5%。其它许多经济机构最近陆续对中国的经济增速做了类似的下调。这打碎了北京对今年下半年经济大幅回升的希望。
进入2022年以来，中国经济一路下滑。第一季度还有4.8%的增长，到第二季度几乎崩溃，增速锐减到0.4%。北京的御用专家学者们曾纷纷预测，下半年将全面好转，可望出现8%以上的报复性增长，全年5.5%的增长目标有可能保住。如果专家预测的2.5%大体是准确的，那么，5.5%将会以一个具有讽刺性的指标留在历史的记录上。
法新社的专家们预测，今年全年中国经济的增速为3%，连去年8.1%的一半都不到。这可能是中国四十年来最低的增速，而2020年武汉爆发新冠肺炎更是经济增速下降至2.3%。
造成中国经济增速急速放慢的主要原因之一是北京一直坚持的清零抗疫政策。中国虽然在疫情初期通过封城明显地控制了病毒的传播，但在具有更强传染力的奥密克戎毒株出现以后，这种政策的效力大打折扣。病毒防不胜防，反而是那些隔离、封城等清零政策下的主要限制性措施给人们的日常生活和经济的正常运转造成了巨大的破坏。
美国有线电视新闻网CNN周六说，之前，中国经济高速增长数十年，许多经济家乐观预测，中国GDP将在2030年超过美国，成为世界最大的经济体。但是眼下，中国经济发展显然已经深陷困境。
CNN说，习近平虽然是中国权力最大的领导人，但中国的巨大经济成就显然与他无关。相反，习近平近年来采取的经济政策不仅没有推动经济的增长，反而造成许多严重的问题。
在最近两年，中国一流的民营科技企业在习近平推动的所谓“反垄断”和“国家安全”的名义下遭到了严厉的整肃和处罚，阿里巴巴、腾讯、滴滴出行等大批企业盈利大幅缩水、裁员持续不断，陷入了艰难自保的境地。
据中国方面的数据，阿里巴巴和腾讯在过去两年市值损失了一万多亿美元。
2020年，中国监管部门对中国经济的支柱行业—-房地产开发商进行风险治理，切断了银行向债务杠杆率高的企业发放贷款，捅破了该行业的巨大的债务泡沫。当一个个大型开发商陷入违约危机，烂尾楼引发业主集体停贷的社会骚乱时，当局被迫改变政策，给这些开发商和业主提供信贷帮助，以度过危机。
然而没人能保证政府出手就一定能化解开发商的违约潮。中国还必须面对国际局势的动荡、俄乌战争带来的能源供应渠道重新组合、地缘政治大洗牌，尤其是中国坚持保留“武统”台湾所造成政治涟漪效应，等等。所有上述不稳定的因素都会间接或直接影响到中国经济能否在高速发展创奇迹。有专家指出，目前的国际局势类似第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战之间的局势。当时并未真正结束的一战为二战爆发埋下了导火索。如果因上述能源、俄乌战争加剧造成全球供应链重组、国际联盟重组以及中国不得不以武力统一台湾，那中国则将完全丧失再创经济辉煌的机遇，习近平第三次连任也救不了中国。
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