VOA慢速英语：IMF削减经济增长，预计明年经济将陷入衰退
IMF cuts growth, forecasts recession next year
WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered bad news for the global economy over the past week. The IMF cut global growth next year to 2.7 percent, warned of sovereign debt defaults and forecast a recession and a bleak market outlook.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke at the week-long annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank multilateral lenders in Washington. "It's tough, but we can meet these challenges," said the audience.
International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas Tweeting some gloomy global economic outlook data on Tuesday, he said: "2023 will feel like a recession for many."
World Bank President David Malpass (David Malpass), IMF Managing Director Georgieva and many prominent economists believe that the global economic slowdown has several factors. War in Ukraine, the pandemic, inflation, a slowing Chinese economy, climate change and a stronger dollar have raised the risk of recession, they said, and "the worst is yet to come", the Financial Times reported on the multilateral lender Agency's latest global outlook.
Growing high-cost debt
Economists believe that high-cost debt and the growing difficulty many countries have in servicing their debt are painful realities. They fear sovereign defaults and expect more debt restructuring requests from emerging and developing economies.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said about 60 percent of low-income countries were either facing debt stress or were at high risk of debt stress.
Elena Duggar, chair of Moody's Macroeconomic Council, predicts that sovereign default rates will rise in the coming years.
Dugger said: "By 2022, we have had six sovereign debt defaults." In general, one or two sovereign debt defaults may occur a year, she said. A sovereign default occurs when a country cannot pay its debts.
Gopinath said: "We do have a number of countries facing sovereign default challenges, several from sub-Saharan."
As she spoke, Some members of the hall could be heard shouting, "Cancel all debts and pay immediately." Some protesters outside the World Bank building also called for greater transparency in the debt mechanism.
High borrowing costs are a major concern. IMF Managing Director Georgieva said at the start of its annual meeting that rising interest rates will start to become a problem.
The United Nations highlighted the global debt crisis in its report Tuesday and called for debt relief for 54 countries around the world. Pakistan, Tunisia, Chad, Sri Lanka and Zambia are seen as facing the most immediate risk of falling into a deepening debt crisis.
The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday it had reached a staff-level agreement with Tunisia on a $1.9 billion bailout package under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The IMF also resumed its support programme for Pakistan, approving $1.7 billion to Islamabad in August this year.
Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters on Friday that he would seek to reschedule about $27 billion of non-Paris Club debt, most of which was owed to China.
Impact on prices
Guranza expects global inflation to hit 9.5% in the remaining months of 2022. He expects that to drop to 4.1 percent by 2024.
However, his forecast for next year is gloomy, which he says will be a recessionary year for many around the world.
Inflation remains the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and destabilizing macroeconomics, he tweeted on Monday.
However, inflation rates in many developing countries are not in line with global forecasts by the IMF's chief economist. British grocery prices climbed to 13.9% in September, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
Inflation in Egypt jumped 15 percent on Tuesday, the highest level in the past four years, according to Egypt's state-run central public mobilization and census agency.
The World Bank expects inflation to rise to 23 percent next year in Pakistan, a country with about $130 billion in debt.
中文翻译：
IMF削减经济增长，预计明年经济将陷入衰退
华盛顿 —
国际货币基金组织(IMF)在过去一周给全球经济带来了坏消息。IMF将明年的全球经济增长率下调至2.7%，警告主权债务违约，并预测经济衰退和市场前景黯淡。
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜•格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行多边贷款机构为期一周的年度会议上对听众表示:“这是艰难的，但我们能够应对这些挑战。”
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶• 古兰沙(Pierre Olivier Gourinchas)周二在推特上发布了一些悲观的全球经济前景数据，他说:“对很多人来说，2023年将感觉是一场衰退。”
世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)、国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃和许多知名经济学家认为，全球经济放缓有几个因素。他们说，乌克兰战争、疫情、通货膨胀、中国经济放缓、气候变化和美元走强，引发了经济衰退的风险，而“最糟糕的情况还在后头”，《金融时报》在报道这家多边贷款机构最新的全球前景时表示。
日益增长的高成本债务
经济学家认为，高成本的债务和许多国家在偿还债务方面日益增加的困难是痛苦的现实。他们担心主权违约，并预计新兴和发展中经济体会提出更多债务重组要求。
IMF第一副总裁吉塔•戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)表示，约60%的低收入国家要么面临债务压力，要么面临债务压力的高风险。
穆迪公司宏观经济理事会主席艾琳娜•达格尔(Elena Duggar)预测，主权债务违约率将在未来几年上升。
达格尔说:“到2022年，我们已经发生了6起主权债务违约。”她说，一般情况下，一年可能会发生一到两次主权债务违约。当一个国家无法偿还债务时，就会发生主权违约。
戈皮纳特说:“我们确实有许多国家面临主权违约的挑战，其中有几个来自撒哈拉以南地区。”
在她讲话时，可以听到大厅里一些成员的呼喊，说“取消所有债务，立即赔偿。”世行大楼外的一些抗议者还呼吁提高债务机制的透明度。
借贷成本高是一个重大问题。国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃在年度会议开始时表示，利率上升将开始成为一个问题。
联合国星期二在报告中强调了全球债务危机，并呼吁减免世界上54个国家的债务。巴基斯坦、突尼斯、乍得、斯里兰卡和赞比亚被认为面临着陷入日益加深的债务危机的最直接风险。
国际货币基金组织周六表示，它与突尼斯就一项 19 亿美元的紓困计划在扩展基金机制（EFF）下达成了工作人员级别的协议。
国际货币基金组织还恢复了对巴基斯坦的支持计划，并于今年8月批准向伊斯兰堡提供17亿美元。
巴基斯坦财政部长伊沙克·达尔(Ishaq Dar)周五对路透表示，他将寻求对约270亿美元的非巴黎俱乐部债务的偿还期限进行重新安排，其中大部分是欠中国的。
对价格的影响
古兰沙预计，在2022年剩下的几个月里，全球通胀率将达到9.5%。他预计，到2024年，这一比例将降至4.1%。
然而，他对明年的预测是悲观的，他称明年对世界上许多人来说，将是衰退之年。
他星期一在推特上说:“通货膨胀通过挤压实际收入和破坏宏观稳定，仍然是对当前和未来繁荣最直接的威胁。”
然而，许多发展中国家的通货膨胀率与IMF首席经济学家对全球的预测不符。据英国《金融时报》周二报道，9月份英国食品杂货价格攀升至13.9%。
据埃及国营的中央公共动员和人口普查机构称，周二，埃及的通货膨胀率上涨15%，为过去四年来的最高水平。
世界银行预计明年巴基斯坦的通货膨胀率将上升到23%，而这个国家大约有1300亿美元的债务。
WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered bad news for the global economy over the past week. The IMF cut global growth next year to 2.7 percent, warned of sovereign debt defaults and forecast a recession and a bleak market outlook.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke at the week-long annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank multilateral lenders in Washington. "It's tough, but we can meet these challenges," said the audience.
International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas Tweeting some gloomy global economic outlook data on Tuesday, he said: "2023 will feel like a recession for many."
World Bank President David Malpass (David Malpass), IMF Managing Director Georgieva and many prominent economists believe that the global economic slowdown has several factors. War in Ukraine, the pandemic, inflation, a slowing Chinese economy, climate change and a stronger dollar have raised the risk of recession, they said, and "the worst is yet to come", the Financial Times reported on the multilateral lender Agency's latest global outlook.
Growing high-cost debt
Economists believe that high-cost debt and the growing difficulty many countries have in servicing their debt are painful realities. They fear sovereign defaults and expect more debt restructuring requests from emerging and developing economies.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said about 60 percent of low-income countries were either facing debt stress or were at high risk of debt stress.
Elena Duggar, chair of Moody's Macroeconomic Council, predicts that sovereign default rates will rise in the coming years.
Dugger said: "By 2022, we have had six sovereign debt defaults." In general, one or two sovereign debt defaults may occur a year, she said. A sovereign default occurs when a country cannot pay its debts.
Gopinath said: "We do have a number of countries facing sovereign default challenges, several from sub-Saharan."
As she spoke, Some members of the hall could be heard shouting, "Cancel all debts and pay immediately." Some protesters outside the World Bank building also called for greater transparency in the debt mechanism.
High borrowing costs are a major concern. IMF Managing Director Georgieva said at the start of its annual meeting that rising interest rates will start to become a problem.
The United Nations highlighted the global debt crisis in its report Tuesday and called for debt relief for 54 countries around the world. Pakistan, Tunisia, Chad, Sri Lanka and Zambia are seen as facing the most immediate risk of falling into a deepening debt crisis.
The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday it had reached a staff-level agreement with Tunisia on a $1.9 billion bailout package under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The IMF also resumed its support programme for Pakistan, approving $1.7 billion to Islamabad in August this year.
Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters on Friday that he would seek to reschedule about $27 billion of non-Paris Club debt, most of which was owed to China.
Impact on prices
Guranza expects global inflation to hit 9.5% in the remaining months of 2022. He expects that to drop to 4.1 percent by 2024.
However, his forecast for next year is gloomy, which he says will be a recessionary year for many around the world.
Inflation remains the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and destabilizing macroeconomics, he tweeted on Monday.
However, inflation rates in many developing countries are not in line with global forecasts by the IMF's chief economist. British grocery prices climbed to 13.9% in September, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
Inflation in Egypt jumped 15 percent on Tuesday, the highest level in the past four years, according to Egypt's state-run central public mobilization and census agency.
The World Bank expects inflation to rise to 23 percent next year in Pakistan, a country with about $130 billion in debt.
中文翻译：
IMF削减经济增长，预计明年经济将陷入衰退
华盛顿 —
国际货币基金组织(IMF)在过去一周给全球经济带来了坏消息。IMF将明年的全球经济增长率下调至2.7%，警告主权债务违约，并预测经济衰退和市场前景黯淡。
国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜•格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行多边贷款机构为期一周的年度会议上对听众表示:“这是艰难的，但我们能够应对这些挑战。”
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶• 古兰沙(Pierre Olivier Gourinchas)周二在推特上发布了一些悲观的全球经济前景数据，他说:“对很多人来说，2023年将感觉是一场衰退。”
世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)、国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃和许多知名经济学家认为，全球经济放缓有几个因素。他们说，乌克兰战争、疫情、通货膨胀、中国经济放缓、气候变化和美元走强，引发了经济衰退的风险，而“最糟糕的情况还在后头”，《金融时报》在报道这家多边贷款机构最新的全球前景时表示。
日益增长的高成本债务
经济学家认为，高成本的债务和许多国家在偿还债务方面日益增加的困难是痛苦的现实。他们担心主权违约，并预计新兴和发展中经济体会提出更多债务重组要求。
IMF第一副总裁吉塔•戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)表示，约60%的低收入国家要么面临债务压力，要么面临债务压力的高风险。
穆迪公司宏观经济理事会主席艾琳娜•达格尔(Elena Duggar)预测，主权债务违约率将在未来几年上升。
达格尔说:“到2022年，我们已经发生了6起主权债务违约。”她说，一般情况下，一年可能会发生一到两次主权债务违约。当一个国家无法偿还债务时，就会发生主权违约。
戈皮纳特说:“我们确实有许多国家面临主权违约的挑战，其中有几个来自撒哈拉以南地区。”
在她讲话时，可以听到大厅里一些成员的呼喊，说“取消所有债务，立即赔偿。”世行大楼外的一些抗议者还呼吁提高债务机制的透明度。
借贷成本高是一个重大问题。国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃在年度会议开始时表示，利率上升将开始成为一个问题。
联合国星期二在报告中强调了全球债务危机，并呼吁减免世界上54个国家的债务。巴基斯坦、突尼斯、乍得、斯里兰卡和赞比亚被认为面临着陷入日益加深的债务危机的最直接风险。
国际货币基金组织周六表示，它与突尼斯就一项 19 亿美元的紓困计划在扩展基金机制（EFF）下达成了工作人员级别的协议。
国际货币基金组织还恢复了对巴基斯坦的支持计划，并于今年8月批准向伊斯兰堡提供17亿美元。
巴基斯坦财政部长伊沙克·达尔(Ishaq Dar)周五对路透表示，他将寻求对约270亿美元的非巴黎俱乐部债务的偿还期限进行重新安排，其中大部分是欠中国的。
对价格的影响
古兰沙预计，在2022年剩下的几个月里，全球通胀率将达到9.5%。他预计，到2024年，这一比例将降至4.1%。
然而，他对明年的预测是悲观的，他称明年对世界上许多人来说，将是衰退之年。
他星期一在推特上说:“通货膨胀通过挤压实际收入和破坏宏观稳定，仍然是对当前和未来繁荣最直接的威胁。”
然而，许多发展中国家的通货膨胀率与IMF首席经济学家对全球的预测不符。据英国《金融时报》周二报道，9月份英国食品杂货价格攀升至13.9%。
据埃及国营的中央公共动员和人口普查机构称，周二，埃及的通货膨胀率上涨15%，为过去四年来的最高水平。
世界银行预计明年巴基斯坦的通货膨胀率将上升到23%，而这个国家大约有1300亿美元的债务。
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