全球数据：经济衰退可能接近尾声

The global downturn appeared close to a bottom yesterday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.

全球经济低迷似乎已接近底部。昨天全球各地公布的制造业数据显示，世界范围的衰退在所有大型经济体均已接近尾声。

The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike.

在这些可喜的消息传来之前9个月，全球制造业产出出现了第二次世界大战以来最剧烈的收缩，世界贸易额骤降，资本货物和耐用消费品的买家实际上都进入“罢工”状态。

Stuart Green, global economist with HSBC, said the signs from around the world indicated that “a spell in the financial wilderness now looks less likely for the major economies . . . with a slowly improving cyclical picture factored in for the rest of 2009 and 2010 across many regions”.

汇丰银行(HSBC)全球经济学家斯图尔特·格林(Stuart Green)指出，世界各地的迹象表明，“如今看起来主要经济体不太可能出现一阵金融荒野时期……在许多地区，在2009年剩余时间和2010年经济缓慢好转的周期性图景开始显现”。

But he and policymakers around the world fear that the coming upturn will be neither durable nor strong.

但是，他和世界各地的决策者担心，即将到来的经济回升将既不能持久也不够强劲。

The recovery in global manufacturing has come primarily because companies have sold off much of their accumulated stocks and are re-starting mothballed production lines. Once this temporary boost is completed, serious questions remain about the source of longer term demand to maintain the current momentum.

全球制造业的恢复，主要是因为企业已经出售了它们积累的大部分库存，并重新启动被封存的生产线。一旦这个临时推动力完成，企业将依然要面对一个严肃的问题：维持目前势头所需的更长期需求来源在哪里？

The June data yesterday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well.

昨天发布的6月份数据来自对制造业部门采购经理的一系列调查，制造业是全球经济中受衰退打击最严重的领域。尽管只有中国的整体数据为正数，但美国、英国、日本的制造业产出数据也为正数。

译者/力文