IEA：油价上涨可能扼杀经济复苏

The world economy cannot sustain any further rise in the oil price, the International Energy Agency's chief economist warned as oil prices hit a record high for the year.

在油价升至今年新高之际，国际能源机构(IEA)首席经济学家法提赫•比罗尔(Fatih Birol)警告称，世界经济无法承受油价的进一步上涨。

Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that prices higher than about $70 could damp a world economic recovery.

比罗尔向英国《金融时报》表示，若油价高于70美元，便有可能阻碍全球经济复苏。

“If we go one step further, if we see prices go much higher than that, we may see it slow down and strangle economic recovery,” he said of oil prices on Friday, when the European benchmark was around $70.

“如果我们再前进一步，如果油价远远高出70美元，就有可能减缓甚至扼杀全球经济复苏。”上周五他对油价作出上述评价，当时欧洲的基准油价在70美元上下。

European oil yesterday reached a high for the year of $73.87, spurred by manufacturing data from China and construction data from the US.

受中国制造业数据和美国建筑业数据的刺激，昨天欧洲油价创下今年新高，达73.87美元。

Fears have been raised over recent months that the inflationary effect of higher energy prices could impact the monetary measures taken by western governments to get their economies out of recession.

近几个月来，人们开始担心，能源价格走高的通胀效应，可能对西方各国政府为摆脱经济衰退而出台的货币政策措施造成冲击。

Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, and Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, called for better scrutiny of energy markets at the G8 meeting last month in Italy, and the US commodities regulator began hearings last week that are likely to result in more limits on oil futures trade. UK regulators are also considering whether energy futures markets are adequately controlled.

上月在意大利举行的八国集团(G8)会议上，法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)和英国首相戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)呼吁对能源交易市场实施更加严密的监督。美国大宗商品交易监管机构上周开始举行听证会，可能对石油期货交易设置更多限制。英国监管机构也正在考虑，能源期货市场是否受到足够的管控。

However, Mr Birol said that efforts to curb oil speculation were “a good step”, but were not going to significantly reduce prices.

然而，比罗尔表示，虽然限制油价投机行为的努力是“一个好的举措”，但不会显著压低油价。

Mr Birol said poorer countries such as those in sub-Saharan Africa would be particularly hurt by higher energy prices. “They will go through a . . . vicious circle of debt as they did a few years ago in order to finance their oil imports,” he said.

比罗尔称，较贫穷的国家，如撒哈拉以南非洲国家，受到高油价的影响会尤其严重。“他们会像几年前一样，为了负担石油进口而经历一种……债务的恶性循环，”他说。

The real problem, he said, was declining investment in oil production, which if anything had worsened in recent months.

据他称，真正的问题在于对石油生产的投资缩减，特别是最近几个月这种趋势有所恶化。

“If there is a continuation of declining investment in the upstream sector, in a few years' time we may have major difficulties.”

“如果上游部门的投资继续缩减，再过几年我们可能会遭遇重大难题。”

He said Chinese demand would be an important determinant of oil prices, and the worldwide supply and demand balance could become very tight if other countries began to grow in 2011 or 2012.

比罗尔表示，中国需求将是油价的一个重要决定因素，而且如果其它国家在2011年或2012年开始增长，全球供需平衡将变得非常紧张。

译者/管婧