研究：中国减排取得明显进展

China is on track to meet ambitious targets for moderating greenhouse gas emissions, according to an independent report.

一份独立报告指出，中国在减缓温室气体排放方面正逐渐实现各项雄心勃勃的目标。

E3G, the climate change think-tank that published the report, said reforestation, low-carbon transport, improvements in energy efficiency and investments in renewable power had put the country on a considerably lower trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions than would be expected under “business as usual”.

发表这份报告的气候变化智库E3G表示，造林、低碳交通、改进能效以及对可再生能源的投资，使中国温室气体排放量要比在“一切照旧”情况的预期排放量低得多。

“China has made significant headway,” said Matthew Findlay, the programme leader at E3G. “But it must meet the targets in its five-year plan and toughen those policies in future plans.”

“中国已经取得重大进步，”E3G的项目主管马修•芬德雷(Matthew Findlay)表示。“但还必须实现其五年计划中的目标，并在今后的计划中收紧这些政策。”

E3G measured national wealth per unit of carbon emissions to find out which countries would be most competitive under carbon limits. Its finding suggests that if China continued at this pace of improvement it would be able to meet the demands of developed nations at the Copenhagen talks in December, which are intended to forge a new international agreement on climate change.

E3G通过衡量平均到每单位碳排放的国家财富，来确定哪些国家在碳排放限制下更具竞争力。该组织的发现表明，如果中国继续这种改善速度，就能在12月哥本哈根谈判中满足发达国家的要求。哥本哈根会议旨在就气候变化缔结一个新的国际协议。

Rich countries want emerging economies including China and India to take measures such as improving the efficiency of power generation and encouraging development of renewables. Only if such measures are agreed will rich countries provide funds to help poorer nations to cut emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.

富裕国家希望中国、印度等发展中国家采取提高发电效率和鼓励发展可再生能源等措施。只有发展中国家同意采取这种措施，富国才会提供资金，以帮助较贫穷的国家减排并适应气候变化的影响。

Beijing is already taking such measures under its five-year economic plan.

中国政府已经在其经济发展五年计划采取了此类措施。

China's carbon dioxide output is likely to be 40 per cent higher in 2020 than today because of its expected economic growth. But emissions would rise twice as fast if China pursued the high-carbon economic growth of the past.

到2020年，由于预期的经济增长，中国的二氧化碳排放量可能会增加40%。但如果中国继续过去那种高碳经济增长模式，排放量增长速度就可能会增加一倍。

The “carbon dioxide intensity of gross domestic product” in China will halve in the next decade, the report says. This means China will be able to curb the growth of its emissions between now and 2020 to the extent necessary to hold global temperatures to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Such a temperature rise is seen as the limit of safety, beyond which the effects of climate change become irreversible.

报告称，中国“国内生产总值的二氧化碳密度”将在未来十年中减半。这意味着从现在到2020年，中国有能力减缓碳排放量的增加，使全球气温高出工业化前水平不超过2摄氏度。气温的这种升幅被视为安全极限，一旦逾越，气候变化的效应便不可逆转。

But the analysis also pointed to a possible problem in that China's rate of emissions reduction slowed from 2000 to 2005 before recovering from 2005 on, owing to improvements in energy efficiency.

但分析也指出了一个可能存在的问题，即中国的减排速度在2000年至2005年间有所放缓，直到2005年之后才在能效改善的作用下有所恢复。

译者/管婧