预测：中国铁矿石进口将继续增长

China's imports of iron ore will rise 28 per cent this year and by a further 12 per cent in 2010 as its demand for steel-making raw materials gathers strength, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

澳大利亚农业资源经济局(Abare)预测，随着对炼钢原料的需求逐渐走强，2009年中国铁矿石进口总量将增加28%，2010年将再增加12%。

The forecasts are based on rising Chinese steel consumption driven by government funding for infrastructure projects and a greater availability of credit for private investment.

该预测基于中国钢材消费的增长，其背后的推动因素包括政府对基建项目的投资，以及私人投资更容易获得信贷。

The Australian government economic research agency now expects China to import 568m tonnes of iron ore this year, after increasing its previous forecast by 7.8 per cent, while next year it expects imports to total 637m tonnes, up 20.4 per cent on its previous 529m tonne forecast.

作为澳大利亚政府经济研究机构，Abare现在预测今年中国将进口铁矿石5.68亿吨，较先前预测上调了7.8%。同时预测明年中国将进口6.37亿吨铁矿石，比先前5.29亿吨的预测增加了20.4%。

However, China is the sole country expected to see an increase in steel consumption this year with an increase of 4 per cent to 479m tonnes this year followed by a rise of 9 per cent to 522m tonnes in 2010. That increase will be matched by rising steel production in China, projected to increase 12.5 per cent to 565m tonnes this year and 8 per cent to 610m tonnes in 2010.

然而，中国是今年唯一有望增加钢材消费量的国家，今年将增加4%，至4.79亿吨，2010年将增加9%，至5.22亿吨。中国钢材产量也将相应提高，预计今年将提高12.5%，至5.65亿吨，明年将提高8%，至6.10亿吨。

But with China's steel stockpiles seemingly close to or at capacity, the agency said restocking in developed countries would be an important driver of steel demand.

但该机构表示，由于中国钢材库存似乎接近或相当于容量，发达国家补充库存的行为将成为钢材需求的重要推动力。

“While China will continue to underpin strong steel demand, assumed improvements in economic conditions in the rest of the world will [also] provide support,” it stated.

该机构称：“虽然中国将继续支撑强劲的钢材需求，世界其它地区经济状况预期的改善也将提供支持。”

However, it also said it expected global steel demand to fall 9.2 per cent to 1,223m tonnes this year.

不过，该机构也表示，预计今年全球钢材需求将下降9.2%，至12.23亿吨。

Global demand should increase by 6.4 per cent to 1,302m tonnes in 2010 but still remain below the 2007 output level.

2010年全球需求将增加6.4%，至13.02亿吨，但仍将低于2007年的产出水平。

译者/管婧