调查：美国CFO信心上升

The confidence of US finance chiefs in their companies' near-term fortunes surged this past quarter, even as many of them predict a full-scale economic recovery may not begin until 2010, a survey has revealed.

一项调查显示，上季度，美国企业的财务主管们对本公司近期前景的信心大幅上升，尽管他们中很多人预计，经济在2010年前或许不会开始全面复苏。

US companies were expected to show an 11 per cent increase in net earnings in the next 12 months, according to a poll of 262 chief financial officers, conducted by Financial Executives International, a corporate finance lobby group, and Baruch College.

企业财务游说团体——国际财务执行官组织(Financial Executives International)和巴鲁学院(Baruch College)一项针对262名首席财务官进行的调查显示，未来12个月期间，美国企业的净利润有望增长11%。

Those surveyed also predicted that revenue would increase 5.8 per cent in the next year. And for the first time in more than a year, CFOs predicted capital budgets would rise in the next 12 months, as would hiring.

受访者还预计，下一年营业收入将增长5.8%。首席财务官们一年多来首次预料，未来12个月资本预算将有所增长，招聘人数也将上升。

“About a year ago we began to see caution,” John Elliott, dean of Baruch's Zicklin School of Business, told the Financial Times. “You've got some pent- up demand you would expect to emerge.”

“大约一年前，人们开始变得谨慎，”巴鲁学院席克林商学院(Zicklin School of Business)院长约翰•埃利奥特(John Elliott)表示，“可以预料，有一些被压抑的需求将会浮现。”

Overall capital spending is expected to rise by 1.1 per cent. Healthcare costs are forecast to climb by 8.2 per cent, while technology spending may pick up by 7.2 per cent.

受访者预计，资本开支总额将上升1.1%，医疗费用上升8.2%，技术开支可能上升7.2%。

The finance chiefs also predicted a 1.7 per cent increase in recruitment.

财务主管们还预计，招聘人数将增加1.7%。

When asked to rate their optimism for the US economy between zero and 100, the CFOs responded with an average score of 54.2.

调查要求首席财务官们以0-100分评估自己对美国经济的乐观程度，得出的平均分为54.2。

While it was the highest reading since March 2008, the survey also revealed that many finance executives remained cautious.

这是2008年3月以来的最高分，但调查也显示，许多首席财务官目前仍持谨慎态度。

Almost 40 per cent predicted that a basket of economic indicators, including bond yields, the jobless rate and the nation's gross domestic product, would improve enough to signal the start of a recovery in the first half of 2010.

近40%的受访者预计，包括债券收益率、失业率和美国国内生产总值(GDP)的一组经济指标将出现明显好转，足以预示经济将在明年上半年开始复苏。

Another 26 per cent said the pick-up would not begin until late next year, while only about 10 per cent believed the recovery was already under way.

另外26%的受访者则表示，明年底前，经济不会开始复苏。只有10%左右的受访者认为，经济已经在复苏。

译者/岱嵩