“贸易壁垒并未影响全球贸易”

A sharply rising number of attempts to block imports has led to a much smaller increase in actual tariffs and affected only a limited share of global trade, according to World Bank research.

世界银行(World Bank)的研究显示，虽然限制进口的企图激增，但实际导致提高关税的情况却少得多，只影响到全球贸易中有限的一部分。

The latest results from the Global Antidumping Database, a monitoring service sponsored by the bank, show the number of new official investigations into imposing so-called “trade remedies” – emergency blocks on imports – rising sharply in the third quarter of 2009. Investigations are opened at the behest of domestic producers seeking relief from cheap imports.

世界银行资助的监督服务——全球反倾销数据库(Global Antidumping Database)的最新研究结果显示，2009年第三季度，各国为实施所谓的“贸易救济措施”（对进口实施紧急限制）而新展开的正式调查数量急剧增加。调查是应本土制造商的要求而展开的，这些制造商试图减轻廉价进口商品的冲击。

The political salience of import curbs has risen recently after US President Barack Obama provoked a hailstorm of criticism by imposing so-called “safeguard” restrictions on Chinese tyres.

不久前，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)对中国轮胎实施所谓的“特保”限制措施，由此招致各方强烈批评。此后，进口限制的政治显著性有所提升。

But separate research by the bank suggests that the rise in trade barriers has so far affected only a small part of global commerce. New remedies proposed between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 covered just 0.4 per cent of the value of imports to the US and the EU. Even the investigations started by China and India, two of the heaviest users of trade remedies, would affect at most 0.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively of their imports.

但世界银行进行的另一项研究显示，迄今为止，贸易壁垒的提高仅仅影响了很小一部分全球贸易。2008年第一季度至2009年第一季度之间新提议的贸易救济措施，仅覆盖了美国和欧盟进口额的0.4%。即使是由中国和印度启动的调查，也最多只会分别影响两国0.6%和1.8%的进口。中国和印度是使用贸易救济措施最频繁的两个国家。

The figures suggest that despite a flurry of actual and proposed emergency blocks on imports – in defiance of promises by the Group of 20 leading economies to eschew protectionist actions – the restrictions are having little effect on trade.

数据显示，尽管一些国家无视20国集团(G20)在避免保护主义行动方面的承诺，大批出台对进口产品施行紧急限制的实际举措或提议，但这些限制措施对贸易的影响很小。

After starting an investigation into whether imports are being dumped, illicitly subsidised or are simply flooding in at a rate that threatens domestic industry, governments typically impose full restrictions on imports 12-18 months later. The 44 new investigations in the third quarter, a 53 per cent increase on the same quarter in 2008, would normally suggest a wave of restrictions to come next year.

一旦启动调查进口商品是否正被倾销、获得非法补贴，或只是大举涌入的速度对本国产业构成威胁，各国政府一般会在12至18个月后对进口产品实施全面限制。今年第三季度，全球共启动了44宗新调查，较2008年同期有53%的增长，这通常会表明，明年会出现一波限制措施。