美欧再保险公司今年盈利将颇为丰厚

Investors in reinsurance companies look set to benefit from a wave of share buy-backs and special dividends following an unusually quiet US hurricane season and a strong rally in financial markets.

由于今年美国飓风季节异常平静，且金融市场出现强劲反弹，再保险公司的投资者似乎必将受益于一波股票回购和特别股息。

As the hurrricane season draws to a close this week, the lack of big storms making landfall in the US this year has pushed reinsurers' catastrophe losses to historically low levels.

本周，随着飓风季节进入尾声，美国今年尚未有大型风暴登陆，致使再保险商的灾难损失降至历史低位。

At the same time, bond markets – where many insurers and reinsurers are invested – have recovered strongly, leaving the industry in a better state of health than many had forecast six months ago.

与此同时，众多保险商和再保险商投资的债券市场强劲反弹，使保险业的资产健康状况比6个月前许多人所预测的更为良好。

As a result, analysts and executives expect some companies in the US, Bermuda and London to follow the example of Munich Re, and return capital to shareholders. “There is going to be a lot more interest in capital returns on the basis that 2009 is likely to be a very profitable year,” said Thomas Dorner, analyst at Oriel Securities in London. “There have been few large losses and investment returns have been spectacular.”

因此，分析师和高管都预期，美国、百慕大和伦敦的一些公司将效仿慕尼黑再保险(Munich Re)，向股东返还资本。“2009年很可能将是盈利丰厚的一年，有鉴于此，人们对返还资本的兴趣将会大增，”伦敦Oriel Securities的分析师托马斯•杜诺(Thomas Dorner)表示。“几乎没有出现什么重大损失，且投资回报相当可观。”

Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, launched a €1bn ($1.5bn) share buy-back scheme at the start of October.

世界最大的再保险公司慕尼黑再保险于10月初推出了总额10亿欧元（合15亿美元）的股票回购计划。

Last week, Aspen Insurance Holdings and PartnerRe, two US-listed Bermudan reinsurers, reported large jumps in third-quarter profits. But Chris O'Kane, chief executive of Aspen, said the industry faced a tough market with few growth opportunities. This is because of premium rates stagnating or declining in many areas, while the supply of insurance and reinsurance remains high.

上周，两家在美国上市的百慕大再保险公司——Aspen Insurance Holdings和PartnerRe——均宣布第三季度利润出现大幅跃升。但Aspen首席执行官克里斯•欧凯恩(Chris O'Kane)称，再保险行业面临严峻的市场环境，增长机会很少。这是因为许多领域的保险费率停滞不前或出现下降，与此同时保险和再保险的供应依然偏高。

“Returns on equity have been in the 15-20 per cent range and that sort of money coming in across the industry cannot all be put to work, therefore you are likely to see capital returns to shareholders,” he said.

“股本回报率在15%至20%之间，整个行业如此规模的资金进账，不可能全部得到投资，因此你很可能会看到向股东返还资本的现象，”他表示。

Hiscox, Amlin and Catlin – the Lloyd's of London insurers and reinsurers – also reported big jumps in interim profits, back in August.

今年8月，劳合社(Lloyd's of London)旗下的保险和再保险公司Hiscox，Amlin以及Catlin也都宣布中期利润大幅跃升。