谷歌真要成为“古歌”

万维网要完了。如果谷歌(Google)兑现其退出中国的威胁（以互联网用户数计，中国是全球最大市场），那么中国的互联网可能很快成为一个“国内网”。

So much for the world wide web. If Google follows through on its threat to quit China, the world's largest market by internet users, China could be on the way to becoming a one-country intranet.

谷歌此前对政府干预的容忍度很高。自2000年该公司开始提供中文搜索门户以来，谷歌忍受住了频繁的封锁和有关它提供色情和庸俗内容的指责。然而，明显侵入用户电子邮件账户的行为，是另一种性质的事情。

Google has had a high tolerance for state meddling. Since 2000, when the company began offering a Chinese-language portal, it has endured frequent blocks and accusations that it was purveying porn and vulgarity. But the apparent hacking of users' email accounts is of another order.

鉴于谷歌向来是一家喜欢戏剧化的公司，它把退出中国的威胁包装为原则性立场的努力，并不能令人完全信服。几乎可以肯定的是，美国政府日益高分贝的反审查言论，使谷歌的脊梁骨硬了起来。但谷歌的中国增长战略（尽管容易遭遇挫折）正在奏效。不错，北京易观国际(Analysys International)的数据显示，与谷歌形似、对审查内容没有什么异议的本土搜索网站百度(Baidu)，在去年前三个季度平均占据中国付费搜索市场62%的份额，谷歌的份额则为30%。但在2006年同期，谷歌的份额平均仅为15%，百度则为50%。初步数据显示，去年第四季度谷歌的市场份额升至35%，而正在安装新广告系统的百度，份额则下滑至58%。谷歌去年前三个季度的中国搜索营收估计为2.34亿美元，较2006年增长近10倍，该公司不会轻易放弃这些营收。

Efforts to portray this as a principled stand are not wholly convincing, from a company given to self-dramatisation. Google's spine has almost certainly been stiffened by some increasingly anti-censorship rhetoric from the US government. But the China growth strategy, if prone to setbacks, was working. Yes, Baidu – the lookalike Chinese site, with few qualms over censoring its content – accounted for an average 62 per cent of China's paid-search market in the nine months to September, compared with 30 per cent for Google, according to Beijing-based Analysys International. But over the same period in 2006 Google had an average 15 per cent, Baidu 50 per cent. Provisional data suggests the US company increased its share to 35 per cent in the fourth quarter, while Baidu – installing a new advertising system – slipped to 58. Estimated search revenue for Google of 4m in the first three quarters of last year, up almost ten-fold from 2006, will not be surrendered lightly.

中国在试图监管日新月异的互联网行业方面已变得手忙脚乱。对谷歌来说，网络问题要向工业和信息化部报告；内容问题要向出版总署报告；娱乐问题要文化部和广电总局报告。但即使没有整体思维，北京方面也应该认识到，事实驱逐一家市值达1870亿美元的公司不符合中国利益。去年，在公众的强烈反对下，北京方面被迫放弃在每台新出售的个人电脑上安装绿坝(Green Dam)过滤软件的企图。谷歌与中国看来更有可能达成某种妥协。谷歌需要中国，中国也需要谷歌。

China has tied itself in knots trying to regulate a shape-shifting industry. Google reports to the Ministry for Information Industry on network issues, the Bureau of Publishing on content, the Ministry of Culture on entertainment, and the Bureau of Broadcasting and Film. But even without joined-up thinking, Beijing should realise that the de facto expulsion of a 7bn company is not in its interests. Last year a public backlash forced it to abandon attempts to install Green Dam filtering software in every new PC. Some kind of compromise looks more likely than not. Google needs China, and China needs Google.