“特朗普繁荣”能否持久？

Forecasters not only said Donald Trump would lose last month. They also thought markets would collapse if he won. Quite the opposite has happened. Investors expect all the good things Mr Trump promised and none of the bad. Instead of global trade wars and mass deportation of immigrants, the equity markets foresee tax cuts, deregulation and big spending. Almost every index has hit recent highs since November 8, adding more than $1tn to US equity valuations and almost five per cent to the dollar’s trade-weighted value. Global markets are gearing up for a Trump boom. In that respect Mr Trump is already heir to Ronald Reagan.

预测人士不仅曾预言唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)会输掉大选。他们还曾以为，如果特朗普获胜，市场会崩溃。事实却正好相反。投资者认为特朗普承诺的好事全都会发生，而坏事全都不会。股市预想的情景里面包括减税、去监管和大规模政府支出，而不包括全球贸易战和大举驱逐移民。自11月8日以来，几乎所有股指都已达到近期高点，为美国股市增加了逾1万亿美元市值，令美元贸易加权指数上涨近5%。全球市场正整装待发，准备迎接一轮特朗普繁荣。从这方面来说，特朗普已经是罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)的继承人了。

But the seeds to the reversal of the “Trump trade” are already sown. The biggest threat will come from the US Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, will almost certainly raise US interest rates for only the second time in a decade.

不过，“特朗普行情”发生逆转的种子已经种下。对该行情的最大威胁将来自美联储(Fed)。美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)周三几乎肯定会提高美国的利率，这在十年内也仅仅是第二次加息。

Before Mr Trump’s victory, the Fed signalled it was likely only to increase rates three or four times before 2019. That was because it anticipated continued fiscal retrenchment. Mr Trump’s victory has blown that up. A unified Republican government is poised to bring about the fiscal stimulus that it has been blocking Democrats from carrying out for years.

在特朗普胜选前，美联储曾释放信号称，在2019年以前该行可能只会加息三到四次。那是因为该行预计财政紧缩会持续下去。然而特朗普的胜选却打破了这一预期。团结一致的共和党政府已准备好推出财政刺激举措——这正是多年来他们一直阻挠民主党人实施的。

The effect on the US economy will be reflationary. Even if you halved Mr Trump’s plans for $5.7tn in tax cuts and $1tn in infrastructure spending, his fiscal stimulus would still be huge. Since US unemployment is already well below five per cent, Ms Yellen will have little choice but to accelerate the Fed’s planned interest rate increases. There are upsides to this. US monetary policy would return to normal far quicker than expected, which would give the Fed greater firepower to counteract the next recession. Goodbye to the “new normal” of zero lower bound rates. Hello to the old one where central bankers wrestle with the economy’s animal spirits.

这会对美国经济产生通货再膨胀效应。就算把特朗普的5.7万亿美元减税计划和1万亿美元基建开支计划打个对折，他的财政刺激举措仍然规模庞大。鉴于美国失业率已经大大低于5%，耶伦除了加快美联储原计划的加息步伐以外将别无选择。这种局面存在有利之处。美国货币政策回归正常的速度会远快于预期，这会为美联储应对下一轮衰退提供更多弹药。拜拜，零利率下限的“新常态”。你好，央行人士用于对付美国经济动物精神的“旧常态”。

But there are also two glaring downsides. The first is that it will set up a clash between the Fed and Mr Trump. No president likes the central bankers who take away the punch bowl just as the party is hotting up. Ms Yellen’s term comes to an end in early 2018 — barely a year away. Mr Trump’s campaign promise to fire Ms Yellen is one of the bad things markets assume he has now discarded. At any rate, a US president does not have the power to sack a Fed chief. But Mr Trump could make life impossible for Ms Yellen. Who he nominates to fill the two vacancies on the Fed’s board will give a clearer idea of which direction he wants the Fed to go. One of them may be Ms Yellen’s designated successor. How Mr Trump responds to the Fed’s interest rate increases, via Twitter or elsewhere, will be key. It is one thing to tweet disapproval of the Fed on the campaign trail but quite another when you are sitting in the Oval Office.

不过，这种局面中还存在两个引人注目的不利之处。第一个不利之处，是它会让美联储和特朗普之间发生冲突。没有哪位总统喜欢央行人士在聚会刚刚热闹起来时就收走宾治酒。耶伦的任期将于2018年初结束——只剩一年多一点了。特朗普选举时提出的解雇耶伦的承诺，是市场假定他如今已放弃的坏事之一。无论如何，美国总统根本也无权解雇美联储主席。不过，特朗普可以让耶伦的日子变得非常不好过。特朗普任命谁来填补美联储理事会的两个空缺，将更明确地显示出他希望美联储往哪个方向走。他们中的一个人也许会是耶伦的指定继任者。特朗普在Twitter或其他场合对美联储加息举动的表态将非常关键。竞选时发布Twitter消息批评美联储是一回事，就任总统后这样做则完全是另一回事。

Little weight should be attached to Mr Trump’s pledge to appoint someone more hawkish to replace Ms Yellen. Republicans have a history of decrying loose monetary policy when in opposition but embracing it when in power. The same applies to fiscal deficits. Dick Cheney, the former vice-president, captured this when he said “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” As a highly leveraged property developer, Mr Trump has often described himself as “a low interest rate” guy. He will want to be a low interest president. If Ms Yellen upset that, Mr Trump could always revive his support for the “audit the Fed” legislation on Capitol Hill.

至于特朗普任命更鹰派的人物替换耶伦的承诺，不要太放在心上。在野时谴责宽松货币政策、执政时却奉行这一政策，这是共和党人一贯的传统。同样的规律也适用于财政赤字问题。美国前副总统迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)曾说：“里根证明了赤字无关紧要。”这句话点中了要害。身为高度依赖杠杆的房地产开发商，特朗普经常称自己是喜欢“低利率”的那种人。他将会想要成为一位喜欢低利率的总统。如果耶伦搅局，特朗普随时可以在国会山重新支持“对美联储进行审计”(audit the Fed)的法案。

The second big downside is the effect on the US dollar. When you combine fiscal loosening with monetary tightening the currency will inevitably appreciate. That will further reduce the costs of imports and raise the price of exports. The US trade deficit — including that with China, which alone stands at almost $400bn last year — will rise. Mounting current account deficits are another feature of Reaganism. The big difference is that Mr Trump has vowed to reduce them. Reversing globalism and repatriating US manufacturing was at the core of Mr Trump’s campaign. Can he afford to abandon that? How would that affect poll numbers?

第二个重大不利之处是对美元的影响。在“宽财政”的同时“紧货币”，美元会不可避免地升值。这会进一步降低进口成本，提高出口价格。美国的贸易赤字将会上升——包括对华贸易赤字在内，去年美国仅对该国的贸易赤字就达到了近4000亿美元的水平。不断积累的经常项目赤字是里根主义的又一特色。有很大不同的地方在于，特朗普已发誓要降低贸易赤字。逆转全球化进程和让美国的制造业回流，是特朗普竞选纲领的核心。他有没有放弃这一核心主张的资本?这么做会如何影响民意支持率?

This is where the bad Trump campaign vows come back into the picture. The US markets are wise to bet that Mr Trump will shelve his threats of global trade wars in the short term in favour of an expansive Reaganite boom. His nomination of investment bankers to the key economic roles — mostly from Goldman Sachs — has reassured Wall Street. The first phase of Mr Trump’s presidency will be “Government Sachs” as normal. But that will change when things turn difficult.

正是考虑到这种情况，我们现在还不能认定特朗普竞选承诺中坏的事情不会发生。美国市场把筹码押在了特朗普会在短期内搁置有关全球贸易战的威胁、选择扩张性里根式繁荣上面，这是明智的。他任命投行人士(大多来自高盛(Goldman Sachs))担任关键经济职位，令华尔街放宽了心。特朗普总统任期的第一阶段将是和往常一样的“高盛政府”(Government Sachs)。不过，当事情变得困难时，情况会发生变化。

The temptation to undermine the Fed’s independence, make a scapegoat of China, revive talk of deporting immigrants and slap tariffs on Mexico will grow with the trade deficit. At which point the markets will recall what it was they originally feared about Mr Trump.

随着贸易赤字的增长，削弱美联储独立性、把中国当替罪羊、重提驱逐移民以及对墨西哥征收关税的诱惑也会加大。届时，市场会想起来，自己最初对特朗普的担忧是什么。

But that is still some way off. For the past 18 months Mr Trump has led an anti-elitist presidential campaign without peer. Over the next few months, America’s elites can expect to receive their largest tax cut and asset-price boosting windfall in years. Little wonder the markets are so giddy.

不过，距离出现这种局面还有一段路程。过去18个月里，特朗普领导了一场无可匹敌的反精英主义总统竞选。今后几个月，美国精英可以预计的是，他们会迎来数年来最大幅度的减税和天降资产价格暴涨。难怪市场如此兴奋。