莫迪：一场豪赌

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, rode to power in 2014 with promises to revive economic growth, create jobs for unemployed youth, and find and repatriate money that rich Indians had hidden abroad. Yet change had been incremental.

2014年，印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)带着对恢复经济增长、为失业青年创造就业、以及找到并追回印度富人藏在海外的资金的承诺上台。不过，改变一直是渐进发生的。

But on November 8, Mr Modi set off a “big bang” that caught most Indians totally off-guard. In a televised speech, he declared an immediate ban on the use of Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes — 86 per cent of India’s circulating cash supply — in a highly cash-driven economy and ordered that they be returned to banks by the end of the year.

但在11月8日，莫迪引发了一场“大爆炸”，让大多数印度人完全措手不及。在电视讲话中，他宣布立即禁止在高度现金驱动的印度经济中使用面值为500和1000卢比的纸币——占印度流通中现金供应量的86%——并且下令在今年年底前把这些纸币存入银行。

India’s stunned public was told the radical measure would help New Delhi unearth or destroy the illicit wealth that corrupt officials, powerful politicians and tax-dodging businessmen are popularly believed to stash in the form of cash. Indians are now grappling with an unprecedented and highly disruptive experiment, whose outcome will undoubtedly be studied by economists for years to come.

不知所措的印度民众被告知，这项激进措施将有助于政府发现或毁掉那些腐化官员、有权政客、以及逃税商人被普遍认为以现金形式藏匿的非法财富。印度人目前正在努力应对这场史无前例、极具颠覆性的实验，经济学家无疑将在未来多年研究其结果。

It is a big political gamble for Mr Modi, who apparently decided on the sweeping step after limited consultations and with minimal preparation. He is betting the political pay-off for demonstrating tough resolve on black money — and, incidentally, wiping out the cash reserves of his political rivals — will outweigh the economic costs of the acute cash scarcity. Several large state elections early next year will indicate whether he is right.

对莫迪来说，这是一场政治大赌博，他显然是在有限的磋商和几乎毫无准备的情况下决定了这项影响极为广泛的措施。他在赌，展现自己对打击黑钱——并顺带清洗掉政治对手的现金储备——的坚定决心所带来的政治收益，将超过严重现金短缺所带来的经济成本。明年年初举行的多个大邦选举将表明他是否押对了。

The writer is the FT’s South Asia Bureau Chief

本文作者为英国《金融时报》南亚分社社长