马琳•勒庞不再是黑马政治家
目前为止，此次法国总统大选最与众不同的特征，是它给法国建制派带来的巨大挑战。前保守派领导人尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)和阿兰•朱佩(Alain Juppé)在法国共和党(Republican)初选中彻底落败，而极不受欢迎的弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)被迫退出角逐——现任总统弱势到不竞选连任的地步，这是头一次。让建制派的溃败成为定局的是，前总理曼努埃尔•瓦尔斯(Manuel Valls)在社会党(Socialist)初选中败给了更激进的伯努瓦•阿蒙(Benoît Hamon)。
This anti-incumbent surge echoes the Anglo-American insurgencies that recently produced the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump. But it also expresses a widespread French distrust of political parties, itself part of an older anti-establishment populist tradition. “Sortez les sortants” (“Kick the bums out”), the slogan of the 1950s populist politician Pierre Poujade, could well serve as the motto of the 2017 campaign.
这股反现任浪潮呼应了在英美出现的反叛——最近造就了英国退欧的公投结果以及唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统。但这也反映了在法国普遍存在的对政治党派的不信任——这种不信任本身是过去反建制派民粹主义传统的一部分。上世纪50年代民粹主义政客皮埃尔•布热德(Pierre Poujade)的口号——“把混子踢出局”(Sortez les sortants)，同样很适合作为2017年大选的座右铭。
Turbulence has now become the defining feature of the campaign. The Republicans’ candidate, François Fillon, who at the end of 2016 looked like he was coasting to an easy victory, has become mired in a scandal after the satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné uncovered how he allegedly turned his parliamentary allowances into family benefits over a period of more than two decades.
如今动荡已经成了此次大选的决定性特征。在2016年底时看似会轻松取胜的法国共和党候选人弗朗索瓦•菲永(François Fillon)，在讽刺性报道见长的报纸《鸭鸣报》(Le Canard Enchaîné)曝光其涉嫌在长达20多年的时间里，把议会津贴转为家庭福利后，陷入丑闻之中。
Although Mr Fillon survived the revelations, and offered a (grudging) apology, the scandal has damaged his position in the polls. The affair also revealed the underlying frailty of his campaign, widely perceived as unimaginative, lacking a presidential grand narrative and incoherent: for all his claims to represent fundamental change, Mr Fillon was, after all, Mr Sarkozy’s prime minister for five years.
尽管菲永挺过了那次曝光并(勉强)作了道歉，但这一丑闻损害了他在民调中的地位。此次事件也暴露了他的竞选的潜在弱点：尽管他声称自己代表着彻底改革，但毕竟他给萨科齐当了5年的总理。菲永的竞选也被普遍认为缺乏想象力、缺少总统应该具备的宏大叙事并且前后不连贯。
The immediate beneficiary of Mr Fillon’s misfortunes was Emmanuel Macron, Mr Hollande’s former economy minister, who is running as an independent centrist. Mr Macron’s appeal lies in his youthful energy, intelligence, cosmopolitan outlook and his belief that the French people are tired of the hackneyed debates between left and right.
菲永丑闻的直接受益者是奥朗德的前经济部长埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)——目前以独立的中间派身份参加竞选。马克龙的吸引力在于他的朝气蓬勃、才智、国际化的视野、以及他相信法国民众已经厌倦了左右翼之间陈腐的辩论。
Borrowing from the Poujadiste playbook and pitching himself as an outsider, he saw his ratings surge as he briefly overtook Mr Fillon in the polls. But Mr Macron, too, has now become embroiled in controversy: his description of the French colonial era in Algeria as a “crime against humanity” provoked an outcry among conservatives.
马克龙借鉴了布热德主义(Poujadiste)的剧本，把自己定位成局外人，从而支持率飙升，曾在民调中短暂超越了菲永。但眼下马克龙也陷入了争议之中：他把法国在阿尔及利亚的殖民时期形容为“反人类罪行”，这引发了保守派的强烈抗议。
Interesting in itself as a measure of the continuing incapacity of French elites to address France’s colonial legacy, the row also underscores Mr Macron’s greatest frailty: his vulnerability to attack as soon as he offers specific pronouncements (so far, his campaign has been decidedly thin on detail). More fundamentally, as a graduate of the École Nationale d’Administration, the cocoon for the French elite, a former banker at Rothschild’s and close adviser to the president, his claims to represent renewal are unsustainable.
这场反映了法国精英持续无法应对法国殖民遗产的争论本身很有意思，同时也突显了马克龙最大的弱点：他一提出具体声明，就容易受到攻击(目前为止，他的竞选在细节上明显十分薄弱)。更根本的是，作为法国国家行政学院(École Nationale d'Administration)——法国精英的孵化器——的毕业生、洛希尔银行(Rothschild & Cie Banque)的前银行家、以及法国总统的亲密顾问，他声称自己代表革新的说法站不住脚。
The misfortunes of Messrs Fillon and Macron should have provided a perfect opportunity for the two main candidates of the left, Mr Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who both espouse a form of progressive populism. Their programmes overlap in a number of significant respects — notably on the need for a new constitutional settlement in the form of a “Sixth Republic”, the abolition of controversial labour laws and higher taxes on the wealthy.
菲永和马克龙二人的霉运本应该为剩下的两名主要左翼候选人带来天赐良机——伯努瓦•阿蒙和让-吕克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)，两人都支持某种进步民粹主义。阿蒙和梅朗雄的方针在很多重要方面都存在重合——特别是主张需要代表“第六共和国”(Sixth Republic)的新的宪法，废除具有争议的劳工法并对富人增税。
These convergences could have provided the basis for a common platform, thereby energising the leftwing rank and file who have been in a catatonic state during the Hollande presidency. But it appears that negotiations between the two men have broken down, with the abrasive Mr Mélenchon declaring that he had “no intention of going and hitching myself to a hearse”.
这些共通点本可以为建立共同的政治纲领奠定基础，从而促使那些在奥朗德任期内死气沉沉的左翼普通成员活跃起来。但二人之间的谈判似乎破裂了，梅朗雄不客气地宣称，他“无意搭上一辆灵车”。
With a neutered right, a flaky centre and a divided left, the only beneficiary has been Marine Le Pen — fittingly, as her far-right National Front is the inheritor of the Poujadiste tradition. She is now clearly the frontrunner, and though the polls predict that she would lose to any mainstream candidate in the second round of the presidential election, the margins of her projected defeats are getting thinner.
在右翼没戏、中间派地位不稳、左翼存在内部分歧的情况下，唯一的受益者是马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)——她领导的极右翼党派国民阵线(National Front)继承了布热德主义传统的衣钵。眼下她明显成了领跑者，尽管民调预测她会在第二轮总统竞选中输给主流候选人，但对于她会以多大差距落败的预测值正变得越来越小。
Until now, the prevailing view has been that it is inconceivable that France could elect a National Front president. Yet we have heard that before, closer to home. If French political elites do not get their act together soon, a Poujadiste “Frexiter” and admirer of Mr Trump could well find herself in the Elysée Palace in May.
目前为止，普遍观点是法国选出一位国民阵线领导人担任总统是一件不可思议的事。不过我们之前听到过同样的话，就在我们自己的国家。如果法国政治精英不快点采取有效行动的话，一位崇拜特朗普的布热德主义“法国退欧派”可能会在5月发现自己已经入主爱丽舍宫(Elysée Palace)了。
The writer is a lecturer in politics at Balliol College, Oxford and author of ‘How the French Think’
本文作者为牛津大学贝利奥尔学院(Balliol College, Oxford)政治学讲师，著有《法国人如何思考》(How the French Think)一书
