“70岁”的印度仍在经历“成长的烦恼”
印度是一个年轻的国家。该国独立于70年前，比大多数主要大国更年轻：巴西195岁;美国上个月庆祝独立241周年;南非已独立107年。
Demographically, India has one of the world’s youngest populations with a median age of 28. By contrast, China’s is 37, Russia’s 39, Canada’s 42, and Germany’s 47. India’s diplomatic disposition is, to quote the academic Kishore Mahbubani, “petulant”. Its relative immaturity in international relations is a function of its youth. Independent India is fewer than four generations old and its responses have been those of a young country still finding its place in the world.
从人口结构上说，印度拥有世界上最年轻的人口之一，年龄中位数只有28岁。相比之下，中国人的年龄中位数是37岁，俄罗斯是39岁，加拿大是42岁，德国是47岁。援引新加坡学者马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)的话，印度的外交气质是“任性的”。印度在国际关系中的相对不成熟，是其年轻的产物。印度独立还不到四代人的时间，其国际回应符合一个正在寻找自己在世界上位置的年轻国家的特点。
It was not inevitable that the country would get to where it is today. At birth, many reckoned that India’s size and diversity would make it ungovernable. Others feared that it would be swept by the wave of communism and authoritarian regimes then stalking Asia. Economists wondered whether India would be able to feed its large population.
印度发展成今天的样子，并不是必然的。建国之初，许多人认为，印度幅员辽阔，多样性程度太高，将使其无法治理。也有人担心，印度将被当时在亚洲蔓延的共产党和威权政权席卷。经济学家们则揣测，印度能否养活本国的庞大人口。
Given that backdrop, India has actually ended up in a pretty good place. The “Hindu rate of growth” — of 3.5 per cent — that persisted until the liberalisations of the early 1990s has improved to an energetic 6.5 per cent. The savings rate, which was less than 10 per cent of gross domestic product at independence, now stands at about 30 per cent, as the ratio of dependants to workers in the population has decreased. Much of India’s economic dynamism is a result of savings being channelled into productive use.
在这样的背景下，印度实际上发展得相当不错。“印度式增长率”——到1990年代初经济自由化之前一直为3.5%——如今已加快至强劲的6.5%。储蓄率——在独立时不及国内生产总值(GDP)的10%——如今已达到约30%，印度人口中受赡养者与劳动者之比有所降低。印度经济活力的很大一部分源于储蓄被引导至生产性使用。
While some of these changes have been significant, judged against India’s potential they are underwhelming. After a big spurt in manufacturing output in the 1980s, it has stagnated at 16.5 per cent of GDP. Much of this is due to infrastructure bottlenecks and inflexible labour policies. Yet, unemployment is stubbornly high. India needs to create a million new jobs a month; in the best of times it has managed to do half that. Paradoxically, surveys show that 60 per cent of Indian employers report difficulty in filling jobs.
尽管这些变化中有一些是显著的，但从印度的潜能来衡量，它们还不到位。在1980年代的一次大幅增长之后，印度制造业产值占GDP的比重停滞在16.5%。很大一部分原因在于基础设施瓶颈和僵化的劳动力市场政策。然而，失业率居高不下。印度需要每月创造100万个新工作岗位;在最好的时候，印度也只达到了这个目标的一半。矛盾之处在于，调查显示，60%的印度雇主表示遇到招工困难。
On the political front, while India has what political scientists call “input democracy”, for all practical purposes, it is weak in “output democracy”. A good test of this is the outcome when a minority or a poor or a backward caste person approaches a local police station for help. That is to say, public confidence in the machinery of government is low. This is manifested in falling turnout and tax evasion. State capacity is feeble, so reconfiguring institutions is an urgent priority.
在政治方面，尽管印度拥有政治学家所称的“输入民主”，但就所有实际目的而言，印度在“输出民主”方面较为薄弱。考验这点的一个很好的例子是，少数族裔、穷人或者低种姓的人找当地警察局求助的结果。也就是说，公众对于政府机构的信任度很低。这表现在投票人数不断减少以及逃税方面。政府能力虚弱，因此重建制度是一项迫切的优先任务。
Indian governments need stronger mechanisms for dealing with so-called wicked problems — those that are hard to describe and difficult to solve because they have multiple interdependencies.
印度政府需要更强有力的体制来应对所谓的棘手问题，这些问题很难描述，也很难解决，因为它们交织在一起相互依赖。
Implementing policy is often like walking on a tightrope. Consider the most significant initiative of Narendra Modi’s government, the goods and services tax designed to unify India into a single market. Its short-term impact will be inflationary, and it will shift business from the unorganised part of the economy to the organised sector, with implications for jobs. If it is not handled carefully, the risk is that it will be dismissed as a pro-rich measure.
实施政策往往像是走钢丝。例如纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)政府出台的最重大举措：商品和服务税(GST)，目的是将印度整合为一个单一市场。其短期影响将是通胀性的，并将把商业活动从经济中无组织的领域转向有组织的行业，这对就业有潜在影响。如果不谨慎处理的话，这可能被批评为一项有利于富人的措施。
Art and literature are leading indicators of significant social and economic change. And India’s buzzing film industry has captured the shifts in the national narrative very well. The big hits of the 1950s and 1960s tended to be about social issues and the thirst for change. In the 1970s and 1980s, we had the angry young man let down by the “system” whose disappointment was expressed through revolution. In the 1990s, popular aspirations were reflected in films about the lives of the urban middle class and the expatriate Indian community.
艺术和文学是重大社会和经济变化的先行指标。印度蓬勃发展的电影行业很好地捕捉到民族叙事的变化。上世纪50年代和60年代的大片往往与社会问题和人民对改变的渴望有关。上世纪70年代和80年代，我们看到愤怒的年轻人对“体制”感到失望，他们的失望之情通过革命表达了出来。上世纪90年代，民众的抱负反映在有关城市中产阶级和印度外籍人士生活的电影中。
Today’s mega hits tell tales of optimism amid India’s complexity. Bollywood is recording India’s metamorphosis. To quote the 2007 blockbuster Om Shanti Om: “The movie is still unfolding, my friend!”
如今的热门大片讲述的是在印度的复杂环境下保持乐观的故事。宝莱坞(Bollywood)正在记录印度的蜕变。援引2007年的大片《再生缘》(Om Shanti Om)中的台词：“电影还没有结束，我的朋友!”
