再见，山姆大叔
依赖美国保护和领导的国家遍布世界各地。但可靠的山姆大叔(Uncle Sam)似乎度长假去了——而他邪恶的孪生兄弟“唐纳德大叔”(Uncle Donald)已在白宫住了下来。结果是，一些与美国关系最紧密的盟友产生了困惑、开始了反思。
Three countries — Britain, Australia and Japan — exemplify the problem. All three pride themselves on their close relationships with the US. All three are currently led by centre-right governments that would normally expect good relations with a Republican president.
三个国家——英国、澳大利亚和日本——最能说明这一问题。三国都为本国与美国的紧密关系感到自豪。三国目前都由通常与共和党美国总统相处融洽的中右翼政府领导。
And yet all three have seen their prime ministers humiliated or put in excruciatingly awkward situations by Mr Trump. The most recent example came with the president’s retweeting of anti-Muslim videos from a far-right group in Britain. The result has been an unseemly, unprecedented and wholly unnecessary row between the US president and the British prime minister. Mr Trump’s much-deferred “state visit” to Britain is now disappearing into the dim-and-distant future.
然而，三国的首相或总理都受到了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的羞辱或是被他置于极为尴尬的境地。最近的事例是，特朗普在Twitter上转发了英国一个极右组织发布的反穆斯林视频。结果在美国总统与英国首相之间引发了一场不顾体面、前所未有且完全没有必要的口水仗。特朗普推迟已久的对英“国事访问”如今变得遥遥无期。
Theresa May is simply going through the kind of bruising encounter, already experienced by Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian prime minister. His first phone call with Mr Trump degenerated into a row after Mr Turnbull asked the president to uphold a US-Australian agreement on resettling refugees.
特里萨•梅(Theresa May)只是在经历澳大利亚总理马尔科姆•特恩布尔(Malcolm Turnbull)早已经历过的那种痛苦遭遇。特恩布尔与特朗普的第一次通话，在他要求特朗普维持一份帮助难民定居的美澳协议之后，也演变成了一场争吵。
Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, has skilfully avoided embarrassing showdowns with Mr Trump. But no amount of bonhomie on the golf course can disguise the fact that Mr Trump’s election led to a calamity for the Abe government. On his very first day in office, the new US president repudiated the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a multi-nation trade deal that Mr Abe had made the centrepiece of his economic and security policies.
日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)巧妙地避免了与特朗普撕破脸的尴尬场面。但高尔夫球场上再多的友情也无法掩饰特朗普当选为安倍政府带来灾难的事实。上任首日，特朗普就宣布退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)——一项被安倍置于他经济和安全政策核心的多国贸易协议。
Despite these humiliating rebuffs, the British, Australian and Japanese governments have all gritted their teeth — and attempted to humour Uncle Donald. All three countries face challenges that make them more anxious than ever to cling to the US. The rise of China has made both Japan and Australia determined to bolster the American presence in the Pacific. Britain is struggling with Brexit and dreams of a new trade deal with the US.
尽管遭遇侮辱性冷遇，英澳日三国政府都还是打掉门牙往肚子里咽——并尝试迁就“唐纳德大叔”。三国面临的种种挑战使它们比以往任何时候都更急于抱住美国。中国的崛起使得日澳两国都决心支持美国在太平洋地区的存在。英国正艰难地应对退欧事宜，且渴望与美国达成新的贸易协议。
Dependence on the US is also deeply embedded in the foreign and security policies of the three nations. So they are all holding on to the hope that Uncle Donald’s advisers will keep America roughly on course, until reliable old Uncle Sam reappears once again.
对美国的依赖也深深植根于这三国的外交和安全政策之中。因此，它们都继续寄望于“唐纳德大叔”的顾问们能让美国大致保持不偏航，直至可靠的老山姆大叔再次出现。
The pliant attitudes of Britain, Japan and Australia might lead Mr Trump to conclude that dishing out the occasional humiliation to close allies is a cost-free exercise. But that would be excessively complacent. For while official policy remains unaltered, Britain, Japan and Australia are all now having public debates about their relationship with the US that highlight the possibility of radical changes in the future.
英日澳三国逆来顺受的态度可能会让特朗普认定，让亲密盟友偶尔蒙受羞辱是一种无成本行为。但这样想就太自我感觉良好了。因为虽然官方政策未变，但英日澳国内如今都出现了围绕与美国的关系的公开辩论，突显出未来发生激进变化的可能性。
The Turnbull government has just issued a white paper which asserts that “Australia will continue strongly to support US global leadership”. But some prominent Australians argue that basing their nation’s foreign policy on an alliance with the US is not a sustainable long-term option. Hugh White, a former senior official who is now an academic, has long argued that China will displace America as the dominant power in the Pacific. Mr White believes that the election of Mr Trump is a “massive additional blow” to Australia’s traditional reliance on the US.
特恩布尔政府刚刚发布一份白皮书，宣称“澳大利亚将继续大力支持美国的全球领导”。但一些澳大利亚知名人士认为，基于美澳联盟制定本国的外交政策并非一项可持续的长远选择。澳大利亚学者、前高级官员休•怀特(Hugh White)一直称，中国将取代美国成为太平洋地区的主导力量。怀特认为，特朗普当选让澳大利亚对美国的传统依赖遭受了“又一次沉重打击”。
The crisis over North Korea could bring Australian doubts about Mr Trump to a head. Mr Turnbull has said that Australia would join a war on the Korean peninsula “if there is an attack on the US”. But Australian officials warn that the situation would be very different if a Korean war is initiated by a US pre-emptive strike. In that case, Australia would not fight alongside America — breaking with the precedent established in two world wars, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq.
朝鲜危机可能会让澳大利亚民众对特朗普的疑虑达到顶点。特恩布尔曾表示，“如果美国遭到攻击”，澳大利亚将加入朝鲜半岛的战争。但澳大利亚官员警告称，如果是美国先发制人的打击导致朝鲜半岛爆发战争，形势将截然不同。在这种情况下，澳大利亚不会与美国并肩作战——打破在两次世界大战、朝鲜战争、越南战争和伊拉克战争中形成的惯例。
The Korean crisis and the erratic nature of the Trump administration are also causing soul-searching in Japan. Mr Abe remains determined to hug the Americans close. But only 24 per cent of Japanese say they trust Mr Trump to “do the right thing” in world affairs — compared with 78 per cent who trusted former president Barack Obama. These plummeting levels of faith in US leadership mean that hitherto taboo ideas are entering the public debate in Japan — with the left pushing for a rapprochement with China, and the right advocating much faster rearmament.
朝鲜危机和无法预测的特朗普政府也促使日本开始反思。安倍仍然坚定地拥抱美国。但只有24%的日本民众表示，相信特朗普会在世界事务中“做正确的事”——相比之下，信任美国前总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的这个比例为78%。对美国领导层信心的急剧下降，意味着迄今一直为禁忌的一些想法正进入日本的公众辩论——左派试图推动与中国修好，右翼则主张更快速地重新武装起来。
Britain’s options seem even narrower than Japan’s, because the UK is locked into longstanding relationships with the US over intelligence and nuclear weapons. But Brexit has demonstrated that the British public is willing to consider policy shifts that seem inconceivable to the establishment. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour party, has a long record of anti-Americanism — and may now find the British public much more in tune with his own deep suspicion of Washington.
英国的选择似乎比日本还少，因为与美国在情报和核武器领域形成的长期关系束缚着它。但英国退欧表明，英国公众愿意考虑在建制派看来难以想象的政策转变。反对党工党(Labour party)领袖杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)的反美主义由来已久，如今他或许会发现，英国公众越来越像他一样对华盛顿抱以深刻的怀疑。
Given his disdain for US allies, Mr Trump probably does not worry too much about the views of the UK, Japan and Australia. But America’s network of alliances — such as the US-Japan security treaty, Nato and the Anzus treaty — are bedrocks of US power. If those alliances are allowed to crumble, America’s global power would crumble with them.
鉴于对美国盟友的轻蔑，特朗普大概不会太担心英日澳三国的看法。但是，美国的联盟网络——如美日安保条约、北约(Nato)和澳新美安全条约(Anzus)——是美国实力的基石。如果任由这些联盟解体，美国的全球实力将随之崩塌。
gideon.rachman@ft.com 译者/申凯
