到2030年，将有4000万糖尿病患者无胰岛素可用
一项新研究预测，随着糖尿病患者的数量持续增加，胰岛素将会无法满足日益增长的需求而短缺。
By 2030, 79 million adults with type 2 diabetes are expected to need insulin to manage their condition and if current levels of access remain, only half of them will be able to be able to get an adequate supply, according to a modeling study published Wednesday in the journal Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology.
根据一项于本周三发表在《柳叶刀：内分泌代谢杂志》上的建模研究，到了2030年，据推测将有7900万成年二型糖尿病患者需要使用胰岛素来控制病情，如果按照现在的胰岛素获取水平来看，只有一半的患者能有足够的胰岛素。
Access to the drug must be significantly improved, the researchers warn, particularly in the African, Asian and Oceania regions, which will be most affected.
研究人员警示道，胰岛素的获取必须大幅度改进，尤其是在非洲、亚洲和大洋洲区域，这些地区将会受到最严重的影响。
"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are highly inadequate compared to projected need, particularly in Africa and Asia, and more efforts should be devoted to overcoming this looming health challenge," said Dr. Sanjay Basu, assistant professor of medicine at Stanford University in the US, who led the research.
“这些预测表明，和预期的需求比起来，目前的胰岛素获取水平严重不足，特别是在亚洲和非洲，需要更多的努力来克服这一不断逼近的健康挑战，”本研究的带头人，来自美国斯坦福大学的医学助理教授Sanjay Basu博士说。
"Despite the UN's commitment to treat non-communicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult for patients to access."
“尽管联合国承诺了会治疗非传染疾病，并保证全球的患者都能获得治疗糖尿病的药物，但是世界大多数地方，胰岛素都很稀缺，患者获取起来非常困难。”
Insulin is needed to treat all people with type 1 diabetes and some people with type 2 diabetes. The latter form of the disease is strongly linked to lifestyle factors such as obesity, poor diet and physical inactivity.
全部的一型糖尿病患者和部分二型糖尿病患者都需要使用胰岛素来治疗。后者这种糖尿病和生活方式因素之间有着很强的关联，比如说肥胖、饮食不良以及缺乏运动。
Basu's team set out to explore how rates of diabetes will change over the next 12 years, namely by how much numbers will rise, in order to predict the amount of insulin that will be needed and whether everyone who needs it will have access.
Basu的团队着手探索糖尿病的发病率在接下来的12年中会如何改变，也就说患者人数将会上升多少，借此来预测届时所需的胰岛素量，以及是否每个患者都能接受胰岛素治疗。
Using data from the International Diabetes Federation and 14 studies to get a picture of type 2 diabetes numbers across 221 countries, the team modeled the burden of type 2 diabetes from 2018 to 2030.
研究团队使用了国际糖尿病联盟的数据，并通过14个研究大致了解了221个国家中二型糖尿病患者的人数，然后制作了2018年至2030年二型糖尿病趋势的模型。
They predicted that, worldwide, the number of adults with type 2 diabetes will rise from 406 million in 2018 to 511 million in 2030. The United States will have the third highest numbers globally, with 32 million people predicted to be living with the condition in 2030.
他们预测在全球范围内，成年二型糖尿病患者的数量将从2018年的4.06亿上升到2030年的5.11亿。而美国的患者数量位列全球第三，据预测截至2030年将会有3200万人患上二型糖尿病。
"The number of adults with type 2 diabetes is expected to rise over the next 12 years due to aging, urbanization and associated changes in diet and physical activity," said Basu.
“由于年龄增加、城市化以及饮食和运动方面的变化，在接下来的12年中，据预测成年二型糖尿病的患者数量会上升，”Basu说。
However, not all people with diabetes require insulin. Of that global total of 511 million, 79 million were predicted to be in need of insulin to manage their diabetes -- a 20% rise in the demand for insulin -- and only 38 million are likely to have access to it based on current resources.
不过，不是所有糖尿病患者都需要胰岛素。根据预测全球5.11亿的患者中，有7900万需要接受胰岛素治疗来控制病情，也就是说胰岛素的需求量上升了20%，而根据目前的资源分配，到时候只有3800万人能拿到胰岛素。
Insulin treatment is expensive and the market is currently dominated by three manufacturers, according to the study.
根据此研究，胰岛素治疗价格高昂，而且目前的市场是被三家生产商分割垄断。
"Unless governments begin initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, then its use is always going to be far from optimal," said Basu.
“除非各国政府开始积极的让胰岛素更普及并且更廉价，那么胰岛素则一直没有物尽其用，”Basu表示。
