崛起的中国，伴随着与西方的经济冲突

News Analysis - As China Rises, Economic Conflict With West Rises Too - NYTimes.com

Davos 2010

As China Rises, Economic Conflict With West Rises Too

By KATRIN BENNHOLD

Published: January 26, 2010

DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — As recently as 2008, when China was still an emerging economy eager to put its best  forward for Western consumers, it lifted censorship on several Web sites before the Beijing Olympics. At the same time, it responded to entreaties from U.S. and European politicians, allowing its currency to appreciate against the dollar.
发自瑞士达沃斯——就在不久以前的2008年，中国依然是一个尽可能满足西方消费者的新兴经济体，为了北京奥运会的召开而放松了对许多网站的审查。也就在那时，中国回应了美国和欧洲的政治家的要求，放宽了对人民币的限制和对美元的汇率。

    China is no longer emerging. It has emerged — sooner and more assertively than had been expected before the wrenching global financial crisis, which badly damaged all the established industrial powers, from the United States to Europe and Japan.
中国已经不再是一个新兴经济体了。在严重损害了老牌工业国家如美国、欧洲和日本的金融危机发生之前，比预想中更为迅速和果断的成为了一个不可忽视的力量。

    These days, the renminbi is frozen at an undervalued level, and Internet controls are stricter than ever — even as Google, one of America’s most prominent companies, threatens to leave.
最近这些日子，人民币的汇率被冻结在一个被低估的状态，并且因特网正处于一个前所未有的严格监管当中。即使是如GOOGLE这样的著名公司威胁离开都无济于事

     “China is the West’s greatest hope and greatest fear,” said Kristin Forbes, a former member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and one of hundreds of top officials and executives flocking to this winter resort for the annual World Economic Forum, which is taking place Wednesday through Sunday.
白宫经济顾问委员会前任顾问，Kristin Forbes是这样评价的“中国是西方最大的希望，也是西方最严重的威胁”。现在他正在与其他数以百计的官员和首席执行官们一起涌向达沃斯经济论坛的冬季会场，参加将于周三至周日举行的峰会。

    “No one was quite ready for how fast China has emerged,” said Ms. Forbes, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Now everyone is trying to understand what sort of China they will be dealing with.”
“没有人为中国如此快速的崛起做好了充分的准备” 作为麻省理工的教授，Forbes女士认为“现在所有人都在尝试着去了解他们将处理怎样程度的中国。”

    For the first time, economists point to Chinese spending — not the U.S. consumer — as the key to a global recovery. China’s gross domestic product could overtake that of the United States within a decade, one report predicted this month, while others speculated about when the renminbi might start to challenge the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
经济学家们第一次指出中国人的花费，而不是美国的消费者，是全球经济复苏的关键。有一个研究报告在本月指出中国庞大的国内生产可能将会在未来的十年内取代美国。与此同时，其他人还在着预测什么时候人民币将会开始挑战美元，成为新的全球储备货币。

    And as developing countries everywhere look for a recipe for faster growth and greater stability than that offered by the now-tattered “Washington consensus” of open markets, floating currencies and free elections, there is growing talk about a “Beijing consensus.”
与此同时，全世界的发展中国家都在寻找使自己快速增长和更加稳定的药方。他们开始放弃破烂的“华盛顿共识”中所叙述的开放市场，流通货币和自由选举。而是讨论更加美好的“北京共识”。

    China’s rise will be on prominent display in Davos this week, with the biggest Chinese delegation in the World Economic Forum’s history. The local Chinese restaurant has been fully booked since early January. The 54 Chinese officials and executives — including the presidents of the country’s sovereign wealth fund and export-import bank — were expected not only to rub shoulders here but also, as one put it bluntly, to “go shopping.”
中国的崛起将与中国有史以来最大的代表团一道，在本周的达沃斯峰会上得到凸显。当地的中国餐厅早在一月初就已经订满。54名中国官员和企业家的庞大阵容，包括了中国主权基金和中国进出口银行的总裁。他们不仅仅被期望着出席，更被渴望着直接去投资。

    When the United States was snapping at the heels of the British empire, the global hegemon of the early 20th century, the situation caused plenty of friction, even though both countries spoke the same language, shared similar cultures and were liberal democracies.
当美国在20世纪初，急切的接管日不落帝国的霸权地位中，出现了一系列的摩擦。即使他们两国是使用同一种语言，共享着相似的文化，并且都是自由民主国家都不能避免。

    China, in contrast, is a Confucian- Communist-capitalist hybrid under the umbrella of a one-party state that has so far resisted giving greater political freedom to a growing middle class. Now its ascendancy is about to set off what many officials and experts see as a backlash on both sides of the Pacific.
与英美两国情况所不同的中国，是一个在中国共产党的领导下，由儒学，共产主义，中央集权融汇而成的国家so far resisted giving greater political freedom to a growing middle class。如今，许多官员和专家认为，中国的优势将会使太平洋两岸的对抗一触即发。

    “It’s not surprising that China’s remarkable economic rise would be unsettling to some,” said Pascal Lamy, the director general of the World Trade Organization.
WTO的总干事Pascal Lamy认为“中国的突然崛起，将会毫不令人惊讶的让某些人不安。

    So far, the backlash against China has been largely rhetorical. Stephen Roach, the Asia chairman of Morgan Stanley, counts 45 anti-China legislative measures introduced in the U.S. Congress between 2005 and 2007. None passed.
截止目前为止，与中国的对抗只是停留在口头上。Morgan Stanley 亚洲区总裁Stephen Roach指出在2005年到2007年期间，总共有45条反对中国的法律措施被提出，但都未在美国众议院通过。

    That could change, as tricky midterm elections loom in the United States and politicians there and in Europe become more outspoken in blaming China’s currency peg to the dollar, which gives its industries a competitive edge, for rising joblessness at home.
这种情况可能会被改变，随着微妙的中期选举的临近。美国和欧洲的政客们由于国内不断攀升的失业率，开始撕破脸皮，更直接的责备人民币对美元的汇率，认为汇率衰弱了国内的工业实力。

    Some targeted tariffs have been imposed in recent months. Washington has penalized imports of Chinese tires and coated paper products. Both the United States and the European Union are restricting Chinese steel.
最近几月，一些定向的关税制度被采纳。华盛顿开始惩罚从中国进口的轮胎和某些纸制品（coated paper products）。美国和欧盟都限制了中国的钢铁。

    But none of those measures go as far as climate change proposals in France and the United States, which call for border taxes on products from countries — China in particular — that do not accept higher costs for carbon emissions in producing energy and making goods. If “the U.S. opts for friction,” Mr. Roach said, “the Chinese can be expected to respond in kind.”
但是，这些措施都没有在法国和美国提出的环境改变倡议后果严重。他们号召增加对那些不愿接受高昂的因生产商品和能源的而产生的碳征收的排放费用，而中国将受此影响极其严重。Roach先生认为，“如果美国选择摩擦，那么中国应该会在某种程度上作出反应。”

    China has its own version of political jockeying. Several foreign companies already complain that doing business in China has become more difficult. Lured until a few years ago by tax rates less than half of those applying to Chinese companies, executives now cite an increase in red tape and a growing number of “buy China” mandates from government procurement offices.
中国有自己的政治发展观。一些外国公司已经开始抱怨在中国做生意开始变得困难。在几年前，外企总裁们还受着中国对外企征收相当于中国本土企业一半税收的诱惑，如今，他们却指出官僚气氛的日益浓重和不断增长的来自政府采购部门的“购买中国”任务。

    The standoff with Google has illustrated the difficulties foreign business faces in China. It has also starkly raised the question of who will have the upper hand in future negotiations.
中国开始对Google的冷淡表明了外资企业在中国的面临的困难。并且赤裸裸的提出了谁将在未来的谈判中获得先机。

    “The operating environment is tougher than ever for Western companies,” said James McGregor, head of the government relations committee of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. “But unlike Google, most Western companies also need China more than ever.”
美国中国商会政府关系委员会主席James McGregor指出“中国的运营环境得到西方企业前所未有的关注，但大多数西方企业，不像Google，也开始对中国市场有前所未有的依赖”。

    China is the biggest recipient of foreign direct investment in the world: 450 of the Fortune 500 companies have business presences there, and many of those still reeling at home are doing brisk business in China. “G.M. is hurting anywhere else, but here things are quite profitable,” Mr. McGregor said.
中国作为最大的吸引外国投资国，世界500强中的450家在中国开展业务，并且许多在自己国家增长缓慢的，却在中国获得了快速增长。McGregor说“GM在世界各处经营，但在这里，利润是出奇的多。”

    Business interests in China could make it harder for Western politicians to lash out. “It’s a situation the U.S. was in for a long time,” said Ms. Forbes, the M.I.T. professor. “Many people didn’t like U.S. policy, but you had to be in the U.S. market.”
商业上在中国获取的利润让西方政治家们更加难以敲打中国。麻省理工教授Forbes女士认为“美国支持了一种事态很长时间了，那就是很多人可以不喜欢美国的政策，但是你必须在美国的市场中。”

    If business executives are looking to China for its low manufacturing costs and sizable market, political leaders are studying a state perceived to have found a recipe for lifting millions out of poverty with fast growth, even if that means a stiff measure of domestic repression. “You hear more and more people talking about a Beijing consensus,” Ms. Forbes said.
随着商人们在中国寻找到廉价的劳动力和上规模的市场，政治领袖们研究着通过快速增长让百万人脱贫，即使意味着忍受国内僵硬的约束，“你听到了越来越多的人在讨论北京共识”， Forbes说。

    But what exactly is the Beijing consensus? Some see it as a form of economic management with greater government involvement that is on the rise across the world. Others interpret it to mean more strictly controlled capital markets, which have made a re-appearance even in previously open countries like Brazil. Policy makers in Malaysia and Dubai focus on replicating China’s special economic zones, which afford generous terms to foreign investors in manageable geographic areas.
但什么是北京共识？有些人认为它是一种在有政府广泛的参与其中的经济管理，并且这种方式开始在世界流行。其他人解释它为更加严格控制的“计划经济”，是先前开放国家如巴西采用方式的重现。马来西亚和迪拜的政策制定者们关注于重建中国经济特区，为外国投资者在一定地理范围内提供慷慨的条件。

    Some suggest that China’s lack of democracy is an advantage in making unpopular but necessary changes. “It is more challenging for democratic systems because every day they come under public pressure and every short period they have to go back to the polls,” said Victor Chu, chairman of First Eastern Investment Group in Hong Kong, the largest direct investment firm in China. “China is lucky to have the ability to make long-term strategic decisions and then execute them clinically.”
有些人认为中国缺乏民主帮助其易于做一些不受民众支持却必要地变革。“民主社会正在经历越来越多的挑战，因为每天，他们都要承受公众意见的压力，每一个短时期，他们都要重新面对投票。” 中国最大直接投资公司第一东方投资的董事局主席Victor Chu说道，“中国幸运的有能力去指定长远的规划并且冷静的去实施。”

    With China’s rising clout, the West has less leverage over Beijing. When China was seeking to join the World Trade Organization a decade ago, it accepted compromises to U.S. and European demands. At climate talks last month in Copenhagen, however, China blocked a comprehensive deal and refused to go beyond its earlier promises. Portrayed as a deal breaker in the Western media, at home it was celebrated as the country that stopped the West from imposing its terms on developing countries, Mr. Chu said.
随着中国的迅速崛起，西方对中国的影响力在日益减少。当十年前，中国尝试着加入WTO时，中国对美国和西方的要求做出了妥协。然而，上个月在哥本哈根的气候论坛，中国阻止了全面协议，并且拒绝做出超过以前做出的承诺。当他在西方被媒体描述为协议破坏者的时候，在国内却庆祝着阻止了西方强压给发展中国家的条款。楚先生说道。

    Western diplomats complain about the way Beijing is dragging its feet more than Moscow on sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program and is propping up unsavory regimes across the world in its hunt for the natural resources to power its growth.
西方外交家抱怨着北京在拖延西方制裁伊朗核设施的计划，甚至超过了莫斯科。并且认为北京为了获得自然资源以增长经济，在资助世界上那些有着坏名声的制度。

    Some say Chinese officials are using their country’s $2.4 trillion in foreign currency reserves as a bargaining chip, knowing that any hint of reducing those reserves would rattle currency markets.
一些人说中国官员在运用它们国家240亿的外资储备作为讨价还价的筹码，中国被认为任何缩减储备的暗示都会震动货币市场。
 

    “As China is emerging on the global stage with unprecedented power and influence,” said David Shambaugh, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University who is in China as a Fulbright scholar, “it is not proving to be the global partner the United States and E.U. seek.”
乔治华盛顿大学国际政治系教授，目前在中国作为福布莱特法案基金的受赞助学者， David Shambaugh认为：“鉴于中国正以前所未有的力量和影响力登上国际舞台，它并不是在尝试要成为美国和欧洲所寻求的那种世界合作伙伴。”
 

    In the world of power politics, that is not particularly surprising. Like many Western countries, China will act only when it is in its interest.
这点并不是非常令人惊讶，考虑到这个世界是强权政治。就像其他所有的西方国家一样，中国将会只在关系到它切身利益的时候才采取行动。

    Mr. Chu of First Eastern Investment said he expected China to resume a gradual appreciation of the renminbi later this year, not because Washington was lobbying for it but because signs of inflationary pressure and bubbles in the Chinese credit and housing markets were mounting. This month, the Chinese authorities raised interest rates and moved to curtail bank loans.
第一东方投资的楚（音译）先生说，他认为中国将在今年晚些时候开始重新浮动人民币汇率，并不是为了应付华盛顿的游说，而是由于通货膨胀的压力和中国信用体系和房屋市场升温的泡沫。这个月，中国官方提升了利率和存款准备金率。

    Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University who just spent two weeks in China, warns that the country will face its share of economic troubles in the years ahead. But that will not change the underlying trend, he said.
哈佛大学经济学教授Kenneth Rogoff就在不久前在中国度过了两周，他警告道中国将会在未来的几年中面对基本经济问题，但这不会改变潜在的中国崛起的趋势。

    While China remains much poorer than the advanced industrial powers of the West on a per-capita basis, its rapid growth should enable it to pass Japan this year as the world’s second-largest economy.
当中国仍然在人均资本上穷于发达国家的时候，它的快速经济增长将使他在今年超越日本，成为世界第二大经济体。

    A new report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers predicts that China could overtake the United States as the largest economy as early as 2020. In 2003, Goldman Sachs made waves by suggesting that the Chinese G.D.P. might match that of the United States by 2041. Five years later, the forecast was revised to 2027.
普华永道最近的一份报告预测中国最快将在2020年接替美国，成为最大的经济体。在2003年，高盛建议称中国GDP将在2041年追上美国。仅仅五年后，这个预测就被修订为2027年。

    According to Mr. Rogoff, over the next four decades or so, the Chinese renminbi will gradually come to rival the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency, making China’s response to its increasingly central role in the global economy critical.
根据Mr. Rogoff的预测，在未来的40年或更久中，人民币将会渐渐的成为美元的对手，威胁美国在世界储备货币上的领先地位。这逼迫中国应对作为在全球经济的关键环节中的中心角色所要做出的贡献和责任。

    The risk, Mr. Shambaugh of George Washington University said, is that “the world will be asking more and more of China but getting less and less in return.”
    乔治华盛顿的Shambaugh先生认为，这种风险，是由于“世界将会越来越多的向中国发问而越来越少的获得回复。”