世界经济论坛：警惕中国经济硬着陆风险

A hard economic landing for China, fiscal crises in developed countries and broad asset-price collapses are the biggest risks to global stability this year and beyond, according to the World Economic Forum, which meets in Davos this month.
世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)表示，中国经济的硬着陆、发达国家的财政危机、广泛的资产价格崩溃，是今年及未来几年全球稳定面临的最大风险。该论坛将于本月在达沃斯(Davos)拉开帷幕。

China is one of the biggest concerns in this year's Global Risk report, partly because of the way it has responded to the global financial crisis and partly because it is one of the only risks yet to be realised from those consistently identified in the report's five-year history.
中国是今年《全球风险报告》(Global Risk report)的最大担忧之一，部分原因在于该国应对全球金融危机的方式，还有一部分是因为在该报告5年的历史中，它是少数几个一直得到识别、但迄今尚未发生的风险之一。

The report has been successful in identifying the big risks in the past few years, having flagged up in 2006-2008 asset-price overvaluations, consumer over-indebtedness, oil and food price jumps and the destabilising effects of the US current account deficit.
该报告在过去几年内成功识别了一些重大风险：在2006-2008年，它识别出了资产价格过高、消费者过度负债、石油和粮食价格飙升，以及美国经常账户赤字的破坏稳定作用。

However, its impact is somewhat muted by the fact that it pointedly has never attempted to forecast how or when these risks would materialise.
不过，该报告从未尝试预测这些风险何时及如何成为现实，这在某种程度上削弱了它的影响力。

This year's report says the chances of a serious economic slowdown in China are above 20 per cent and would lead to economic losses of between $250bn and $1,000bn. The repercussions would be greater than this because of the country's central role in areas such as funding developed country deficits and consuming the majority of exports from its south-east Asian neighbours.
今年的报告指出，中国经济严重放缓的可能性大于20%，并将会导致2500亿至1万亿美元的经济损失。考虑到该国在资助发达国家赤字、消费东南亚邻国大部分出口等方面扮演的中心角色，其连带影响将会更大。

The authors of the report said that while China appeared to have navigated the global financial crisis well, it had relied on especially high credit growth to do this, which risked mimicking the asset price bubbles and unbalanced growth of the west before the crisis.
报告作者表示，尽管中国似乎顺利度过了金融危机，但它主要是依靠极高的信贷增长来实现这一点的，这可能让它重蹈危机之前西方资产价格泡沫和不平衡增长的覆辙。

Commercial lending by Chinese banks grew more than 45 per cent between July 2008 and July 2009, according to data from Swiss Re.
瑞士再保险(Swiss Re)的数据显示，在2008年7月到2009年7月间，中国银行的商业贷款增长了45%以上。

“China is on a very unbalanced path of economic growth,” said Daniel Hofmann, group chief economist at Zurich Financial Services, the global insurance group.
“中国正走上一条非常不均衡的经济增长道路，”全球保险集团苏黎世金融服务集团(Zurich Financial Services)集团首席经济学家丹尼尔•霍夫曼(Daniel Hofmann)表示。

This helped to explain why asset price collapses were still high on the agenda, in spite of the pain that the US and western Europe have been through in the past two years. The likelihood of another collapse is also above 20 per cent, according to the report, and would cause global economic losses of more than $1,000bn.
这帮助解释了，为何美国与西欧尽管在过去两年经历了那么多痛苦，但资产价格崩溃在日程表上仍如此靠前。报告称，另一场资产价格崩溃的可能性也在20%之上，且将会导致全球遭受逾1万亿美元的经济损失。

Raj Singh, chief risk officer at Swiss Re, said another significant risk that was gaining importance as countries' fiscal positions worsened was the need to address chronic under-investment in infrastructure.
瑞再首席风险官拉吉•辛格(Raj Singh)表示，在各国财政状况恶化之际，另一个日益突显的重要风险是：我们亟需解决基础设施长期投资不足的问题。

“This is not just about the risk to airports or other existing structures in the developed world, but is particularly acute for agriculture and food security,” he said.
他表示：“这不仅仅是发达国家机场或其它现有设施面临风险这么简单，而且包括农业和粮食安全方面的迫切风险。”

He said the last fiscal crises of the 1980s and 1990s resulted in a big drop in agricultural investment, which has never been replaced – and the world had now reached a point where it needed to increase food production by 70 per cent to feed an expected population of 9.1bn by 2020.
他指出，发生于上世纪80、90年代的上一场财政危机，使得农业投资出现了严重下滑，直到现在都没有恢复，而世界已经走到了这样一个时点：到2020年，它需要将粮食产量提高70%，以养活预计的91亿人口。

Mr Hofmann added that the risks of fiscal crises faced by western countries particularly were not based mainly on “exploding budget deficits” but about the current models for health, education and unemployment protection, which in the US and UK especially “are clearly not sustainable”.
霍夫曼补充表示，尤其是在西方国家，财政危机并非主要因为“预算赤字爆炸”，而是因为当前的医疗、教育和失业保护模式，特别是在英美“明显是不可持续的”。