金融业应迎接科技革命

Over the past year, I have come across several caseswhere the forces of financial democratisation areredefining the outer edges of the financial serviceindustry. Enabled by disruptive technologies andpost-crisis mindsets, they also have the potential toimprove the broader intermediation process thatbrings together sources and uses of productivecapital. It is part of a broader phenomenon that hasdominated the technology sector and is playing outin media and elsewhere. It is one that requiresadjustments on the part of traditional institutionsand the authorities that regulate them.

过去一年中，我遇到过几次这样的情形：金融民主化的力量正在重新界定金融服务业的外部边缘。在颠覆性技术和后危机思维模式的帮助下，这一力量也有潜力改善更广泛的金融中介流程，将可产生效益的资本的提供者和使用者集合到一起。这是一种更广泛现象的一部分，这一现象已经主导了科技领域，而且正在媒体及其他领域展开。这一现象需要传统机构以及监管当局做出调整。

The democratisation of finance comes in many forms. A notable one is the use of “peer-to-peer” and direct lending platforms to bypass costly intermediaries. These link borrowers andlenders in cost efficient ways. and are among the changes that are reshaping interactions andempowering individuals. Driven by the digital revolution, the y encourage entrants withgreater cognitive diversity, including a tilt in favour of technological disruption.

金融民主化有多种形式。一种值得关注的形式，是使用个人对个人(peer-to-peer，简称P2P)和直接贷款平台，绕开费用昂贵的中介机构。这些平台以低成本的方式为借款人和贷款人牵线搭桥。这些变化正在重塑人们的互动方式，并增强个人赋权。在数字革命的推动下，它们使参与者的认知更具多样性，包括支持技术性颠覆。

No wonder more tech entrepreneurs are taking an interest in the financial sector, which criesout for disruption given its slow adoption of technologies, its profitability, and the difficulties ithas had in enabling superior client outcomes. Outside forces also play a role. Banks still face atrust deficit. Regulators, prompted by consumer protection approaches, favour the delivery offinancial services that are better aligned with client success.

难怪越来越多的科技企业家对金融行业感兴趣。鉴于金融业对技术的缓慢应用、盈利现状以及在帮助优质客户实现目标上的困难，这一行业迫切需要颠覆。外部力量也发挥了作用。银行仍然面临信任赤字。监管机构在消费者保护政策的推动下，偏爱那些更能助力客户成功的金融服务活动。

The upside is considerable; and it is powerful when it comes to delivering better financialservices to vulnerable segments of the population. Lowering entry barriers widens thesources and uses of loanable funds; and by reducing costs, improves the terms offered tousers. The influx of greater cognitive diversity makes the industry more dynamic.Institutions that choose to align their products and services with their client’s success becomebetter positioned for commercial gain.

有利因素很可观;在向人口中脆弱的人群提供更好的金融服务方面，这些因素的作用很强大。进入门槛的降低扩大了可贷资金的来源和用途;通过降低成本，可以改善提供给用户的服务条款。人们的认知更具多样性，使得这一行业更有活力。将自己的产品和服务与客户的成功协调一致的机构更能获得商业回报。

Through the incorporation of behavioural finance and data analytics, the disruptive forces alsohelp to wean the industry off its obsession with FICO scores in favour of analytical modelsmore calibrated with financial health. Though these models have yet to be tested through adownturn, more complete pictures of financial mindset and behaviour are emerging.

通过将行为金融学和数据分析结合起来，这股颠覆性力量也可以帮助金融业摆脱对FICO评分的依赖。FICO评分偏向于主要以财务状况来校准的分析模型。尽管这些模型还没有经历经济衰退的检验，但关于金融思维模式和行为的更多全貌正在显现。

The disruptions will be embraced by the more progressive institutions but opposed by manytraditional incumbents. They require regulatory catch-up. Finance will be following a pathalready trodden by technology and media. In both cases, technological change has madeactivities more accessible to broader segments of society. Like these predecessors, the key willbe the success that participants have in combining content with platforms.

这些颠覆力量将被更为进步的机构接受，但也会遭到许多传统机构的反对。监管必须赶上来。金融业将追随科技和媒体业已经开辟的道路。在这两个行业，技术变革都使服务惠及更广泛的社会阶层。像科技和媒体业一样，关键是参与者能成功将内容与平台结合起来。

If finance breaks the content-platform code, the “win-win-win” of financial democratisation willaccrue to consumers, the innovative providers, and a system that can deliver better services.

如果金融业能破解内容-平台的密码，那么消费者、创新的服务提供者、以及可以提供更好服务的金融系统，将获得金融民主化带来的“三赢”。

If it fails to do so, the developments will be contained to the outer edges of an industry thatstruggles to regain its credibility and contributions to growth.

如果做不到这些，金融民主化的发展将被限定在金融业的外部边缘，而金融业仍在为恢复信誉以及贡献经济增长而苦苦挣扎。

The writer is chief economic adviser to Allianz. He recently took an equity stake in Payoff, a USpeer-to-peer lender.

本文作者是安联集团(Allianz)首席经济顾问。他最近获得了美国P2P贷款机构Payoff的部分股权。