谁将入主唐宁街?

Britain’s Strange Election

谁将入主唐宁街?

LONDON — This is a curious election for anyone who cares about Britain. If David Cameron, the Conservative prime minister, is returned to office, the country will face a referendum in 2017 that could take the United Kingdom out of the European Union and into strategic irrelevance. Two years will be lost to a paralyzing debate in which the worst of anti-European British bigotry will have free rein.

伦敦——对于心系英国的人而言，此次选举真是非比寻常。假如来自保守党的现任首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)得以连任，那么英国将面临2017年公决的前景，而这次的公决可能会让联合王国退出欧盟，沦落到在战略上无关紧要的境地。两年的时间也将被浪费到毫无成效的辩论上，其间会任由最为极端的英式反欧偏执情绪肆虐泛滥。

If Ed Miliband, the Labour Party leader, becomes prime minister, he will have in some form to rely on the support of the surging Scottish National Party (S.N.P.), which wants to break up Britain. Miliband vows that he will not succumb to the whims of Nicola Sturgeon, the S.N.P. leader, but this is a man whose determination to reach Downing Street has already seen the political equivalent of fratricide. His promises should be viewed in that cold light.

假如工党党魁埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband)成为新首相，他将不得不在一定程度上依靠人气急升的苏格兰民族党(Scottish National Party)的支持，而后者希望英国分裂。米利班德发誓，自己不会屈从于苏格兰民族党党魁尼古拉·斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)的奇想。不过，为了入主唐宁街，他可是在政治上不啻于跨过了兄弟的尸体。此人的承诺，当以冷眼观之。

Pay your money and take your pick: a Britain outside Europe or a rump Britain. Of course, it’s not that simple. Cameron could prevail in his muddled attempt to keep the country in Europe while “repatriating” greater, as yet unspecified powers from Brussels. He may control the malign little-England genie he’s let out of the bottle to appease the right of his Tory party. Miliband may be able to make use of the S.N.P. without becoming its hostage. The worst is not inevitable.

纳了税的人们，可要好好选：是要一个游离于欧洲之外的不列颠，还是要一个四分五裂的不列颠?当然，现实并没有这么简单。或许，卡梅伦能够从他的混乱尝试中成功地理出头绪，把英国留在欧洲的同时，从布鲁塞尔手中“拿回”更大的权力——尽管其具体含义并不明朗。或许，他也能够将邪恶的小英格兰恶魔再收回瓶中，虽然这是他亲手放出来的，以安抚旗下的保守党右翼。或许，米利班德能够在不被苏格兰民族党挟持的情况下好好对其加以利用。最糟糕的情形并非不可避免。

Still, these unhappy choices point to an uneasy and divided Britain. Cameron has overseen an economic recovery that is the envy of continental Europe. Unemployment is at its lowest rate in several years. Jobless French and Spanish youths flock to Britain to find work. The prime minister has steadied the ship.

虽说如此，这些令人不快的选择揭示出了英国的不安与分裂。卡梅伦治下，英国经济复苏，令欧洲大陆国家艳羡。它目前的失业率处于几年来的最低点，吸引了法国和西班牙的待业青年纷纷前去寻找工作。卡梅伦稳住了这艘大船。

Very few, however, are partying aboard. The recovery has not translated into a sense of well-being or confidence. Income disparity is growing. Booming, purring London, with its glittering central districts full of bivouacked billionaires excavating ever deeper basements for their staff, has left the rest of the country behind and become a resented symbol of division. The S.N.P. has done very well out of its portrayal, however skewed, of a Tory anti-European England given over to ruthless free enterprise and Mammon.

不过，可没什么人在船上狂欢。经济复苏并未转变成民众的富足感或自信心。收入差距在持续拉大。欣欣向荣、滚滚前行的伦敦有着光鲜照人的中心区，遍地都是暂居此地的亿万富豪，他们纷纷把地下室挖得更深，供自家的服务人员使用。这样的伦敦将英国的其他地方甩在了身后，成为了令人厌恶的社会分裂象征。苏格兰民族党塑造的英格兰的形象，是在保守党领导下屈服于无情的自由经济与拜金主义的反欧洲的英格兰。尽管这种描述扭曲了事实，却令该党十分成功。

The election on Thursday will be close. A hung parliament, as in 2010, appears likely, with no single party able to command a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. British politics are taking an Israeli turn. The vote itself is a mere prelude to the real business of coalition building.

周四举行的选举将难分伯仲。看形势，可能会像2010年那样形成悬浮议会，也就是没有单一政党能在拥有650个席位的议会下院掌握多数。英国政坛在往以色列模式转变：选举本身不过是前奏，组建联盟才是重头戏。

Most polls show the Conservatives with a slight lead, gaining about 35 percent of the vote and perhaps 275 seats, with Labour at 34 percent and about 267 seats. The phenomenon of the election seems certain to be a big S.N.P. jump to as many as 50 seats from the party’s current six, as if the rejection in last year’s referendum on Scottish independence merely freed the Scots to vote their heart without suffering the consequences.

多数民调显示，保守党略微领先，可能赢得35%左右的选票和275个席位，而工党则可能赢得34%左右的选票和267个席位。看起来，此次选举中的大事必然要归到苏格兰民族党的大幅蹿升之上。它目前占据6席，这次也许能夺得至多50席。苏格兰独立一事去年在公投中遭到的否决，似乎反而让苏格兰人敞开心扉地投票，而不去计较什么后果。

Because the S.N.P. might cooperate with Labour but not with the Tories, Miliband may be in a stronger position than Cameron to form a government. The far-right U.K. Independence Party, whose influence on Cameron’s politics has been significant, will not, it seems, get more than four or five seats. The Liberal Democrats, who have governed with the Conservatives without their allegiance becoming irreversible, will take most of the rest, but many fewer than in 2010.

由于苏格兰民族党愿与工党而非保守党合作，在组阁问题上，米利班德也许占据了比卡梅伦更有利的位置。极右翼的英国独立党 (U.K.Independence Party)对卡梅伦的政治影响力一直不容小觑，但这次似乎不会得到比四五席更好的成绩。目前与保守党联合组阁的自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)并未让这一联盟变得不可逆转，预计将拿下剩余席位中的大多数，不过成绩要比2010年的时候大为逊色。

Cameron has led an odd campaign, so lusterless and absent at times that he could not even remember the name of his own football team. When he has found his voice, it has been in the name of free enterprise, as when he told a gathering of chartered accountants his was the party of the “techies, the roof tilers, the retailers, the plumbers, the builders” and vowed that what pumped him up was “taking a risk, having a punt!”

卡梅伦的竞选活动相当奇怪，不时陷入沉闷至极、心不在焉的状况，就连他自己喜欢的足球队的名字都会想不起来。他焕发生机的时候，总是为自由经济正名的时候。比方说，他告诉一群注册会计师，自己领导的政党为“技术人员、砖瓦工、零售商、水管工和建筑工人”代言，并且誓言称让自己鼓足干劲的是“承担风险，放手一搏”的思维。

Beyond that, however, it’s anyone’s guess what Cameron really believes in. His gamble with European Union membership has been reckless and unpardonable. As yet, he has not given a single credible account of what it is he wants from Europe or why he has promised a referendum. In so doing, he has put Britain’s future at risk.

不过，除此之外，谁也说不准卡梅伦到底相信些什么。他在英国的欧盟成员国身份上玩的把戏实属鲁莽，不可原谅。到目前为止，他没有给出哪怕是一次可信的说法，阐明自己到底想从欧洲得到些什么，或是他承诺要进行公投的具体理由。这种做法，是拿英国的未来赌博。

Miliband is a work in progress but his instincts are right. He will not hold a referendum on Europe. Beginning with his determination to abolish the non-domicile rule that, after the payment of an annual fee, permits many of Britain’s richest permanent residents to avoid paying U.K. tax on their worldwide income, he has shown an understanding that something must change to rebalance British society.

米利班德的政见尚未成型，不过他的直觉是正确的。他不会在脱欧问题上推动公投。他的起点是下决心废除“领外税收法令”。根据这一规则，只要交上一笔年费，英国最富裕的永久居民中的许多人，便无需就世界范围内的收入向英国缴纳所得税。通过这样的议程，米利班德显示出，他明白，为了让英国社会重新取得平衡，必须进行变革。

He has lambasted the “idea that says anything goes for those at the top, that what is good for the very rich is always good for Britain.” This disquiet over a money-driven culture is shared by a majority of the still-united British people. Miliband may prove the unlikely standard-bearer of that sentiment, all the way to Downing Street.

对于“声称一切归于最上层、有利于大富豪就总是有利于英国的观点”，他大加鞭挞。这种对金钱驱动的文化的不安，引发了仍团结在一起的英国民众中的大多数人的共鸣。也许事实将证明，尽管出人意料，但米利班德会是引领这种情绪的旗手，最终入主唐宁街。