希拉里，太出名未必是件好事

　　Hillary Clinton May Not Need a Second Chance to Make a First Impression

　　希拉里，太出名未必是件好事

　　Jeb Bush has his famous last name as a calling card, for better or worse. But Scott Walker’s name does not ring many bells outside Wisconsin.

　　无论是好是坏，杰布·布什(Jeb Bush)都有一个响亮的姓氏作为名片。但斯科特·沃克(Scott Walker)在威斯康星州以外少为人知。

　　Ted Cruz is not even well known in Texas.

　　特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)更是在德克萨斯州也声名不著。

　　Republican presidential hopefuls will spend millions of dollars trying to get voters to remember their names and something that sets them apart. But the one White House contender who needs no introduction faces a different sort of problem:

　　共和党总统候选人将花费数以百万计的美元，努力让选民记住他们的名字，记住他们的与众不同之处。但是，有一个家喻户晓的白宫角逐者却面临着截然不同的问题：

　　Everybody knows Hillary Rodham Clinton.

　　每个人都知道希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿(Hillary Rodham Clinton)是谁。

　　She did not just co-star in a national soap opera during her husband’s eight-year presidency: She reinvented herself as a senator from the nation’s biggest media market, New York; reintroduced herself again, this time to the nation, as a presidential candidate in 2008 and then remade herself into the country’s chief diplomat.

　　她不仅仅在丈夫担任美国总统的八年任期中，联合主演了一出国家肥皂剧，她还重塑自己，当上了全国最大的媒体市场纽约州的联邦参议员;然后再次登场，成为2008年的美国总统候选人，之后，她又成为了美国的首席外交官。

　　She never left the stage.

　　她从来没有离开过舞台。

　　Not since Richard M. Nixon mounted a comeback in 1968, historians and pollsters say, has a candidate entered a presidential contest with so low a bar for name recognition or so high a bar for changing voters’ opinions.

　　历史学家和民意调查者说，事实上，自从1968年理查德·M·尼克松(Richard M. Nixon)尝试东山再起之后，就没有哪个总统候选人像她这样，在刚进入竞赛场的时候知名度就如此之高，在影响选民看法方面又如此不易。

　　Their specific challenges are hardly similar: Nixon needed to recover from a crushing defeat that sent him into the political wilderness. Mrs. Clinton merely needs to rekindle interest in her as a candidate after a short hiatus from politics and a four-year tenure as President Obama’s emissary on the world stage.

　　两人面临的具体挑战罕有相似之处：尼克松需要从令他陷入政治荒野的惨败中恢复过来。而希拉里·克林顿在世界舞台上为奥巴马担任了四年的使者之后，经历了短暂的政治沉寂，她仅仅需要重新点燃人们对她作为总统候选人的兴趣。

　　But the campaign playbooks of Nixon and Mrs. Clinton seem to share some pages.

　　但是，尼克松和希拉里的竞选剧本也有一些共通点。

　　Nixon strove to show a more casual side by bypassing journalists and staging town-hall-style events — orchestrated by his media consultant, Roger Ailes — at theaters across the country packed with friendly audiences. Taking softball questions, he kept to his talking points and struck television viewers as more relaxed than the sweaty man they remembered from his debates against John F. Kennedy in 1960.

　　尼克松力图展现自己更随意的一面，在媒体顾问罗杰·艾尔斯(Roger Ailes)的策划安排下，他避开了记者，前往全国各地的影剧院，参加市政厅大会类型的活动，那里挤满了友好的观众。他回答那些容易回答的问题，并一直紧紧围绕自己的谈话要点。在电视观众眼中，他显得更加轻松自如了，与他们记忆中那个在1960年与约翰·F·肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)辩论时满头是汗的尼克松不一样。

　　“A lot of people who thought they’d made up their minds about him saw a different version,” said Kenneth L. Khachigian, a speechwriter for Nixon and later for Ronald Reagan. “That’s a prime example of someone who had a lot of perceived political baggage and who remade himself.”

　　“很多人自以为对他的看法已经定型，但他们看到了一个不同的形象，”肯尼斯·L·哈契金(Kenneth L. Khachigian)说，他曾先后为尼克松和罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)撰写过演讲稿。“这是一个绝佳的例子：一个在许多人眼里背负着诸多政治包袱的人，重塑了自身的形象。”

　　Mrs. Clinton, too, has been ducking reporters and instead holding round-table discussions with carefully chosen voters in early voting states. (Aides say the questions those voters ask are not screened.) She has used the sessions to share lesser-known vignettes from her past: her mother’s impoverished upbringing; her middle-class childhood in Chicago; her work in the 1970s as an advocate for children; her juggling work and child rearing as a young lawyer in Arkansas.

　　希拉里也一样，她一边回避记者，一边在可以提前投票的州与精心挑选的选民召开圆桌讨论会。(助手们说，这些选民提出的问题没有经过筛选。)她利用这些讨论，分享自己鲜为人知的点滴往事：她母亲在贫困中长大的状况;她在芝加哥过的中产阶级童年生活;她在上世纪70年代做的儿童权益倡导工作;年轻时在阿肯色州当律师期间，她如何兼顾工作和孩子。

　　On Tuesday, she spoke to small-business owners in Cedar Falls, Iowa, part of her second swing through the state.

　　本周二，她在爱荷华州锡达福尔斯向一些小企业主发言，这是她在该州各处的第二轮拉选票活动的一个环节。

　　At one event in Las Vegas, she sat with high school students whose parents are undocumented immigrants. It was a canny move: Young people and Latinos are two demographic groups whose opinions Mrs. Clinton may still be able to shape, Democratic pollsters say.

　　在拉斯维加斯一个活动中，她与一些父母是非法移民的高中生座谈。此举相当精明：据民主党的民调专家说，对于年轻人和拉美裔这两个群体，希拉里仍然有可能影响他们的意见。

　　There are not many others.

　　目前，这样的群体并不多了。

　　Only 1 percent of voters have never heard of Mrs. Clinton, a CNN poll found in March (suggesting the network’s pollsters managed to reach a few people living in caves).

　　CNN今年3月的民调发现，只有1%的选民从来没有听说过希拉里(说明该台的民调联系到了几个住在洞里的人)。

　　A larger number, but still just 11 percent of all voters, said they did not know enough about her to form an opinion, according to a New York Times-CBS poll published this month. By contrast, 43 percent said they did not know enough about Mr. Bush, the best-known Republican contender.

　　表示对希拉里了解不多、不足以对她形成看法的选民人数虽然多一些，但也只有11%，《纽约时报》和CBS的本月初公布的一项民意调查显示。相比之下，43%的人表示他们对最出名的共和党竞争者布什的了解还不够多。

　　On the bright side for Mrs. Clinton, she enters the race with a devoted base of supporters, mostly women, who appear solidly in her corner. Women in big states like Ohio and Pennsylvania heavily favored Mrs. Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries, driving her defeat of Mr. Obama in those states.

　　对于希拉里，有利的一面是，她在进入这场角逐时，就有忠心耿耿的支持者，其中大部分是坚定地站在她这边的女性。在俄亥俄和宾夕法尼亚等重要州，女性选民在2008年民主党初选中大力支持希拉里，帮助她在这些州击败了奥巴马。

　　Mrs. Clinton remains highly popular with African-Americans, college-educated women and single women, said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster.

　　在非裔美国人、拥有大学学历的女性，以及单身女性中，希拉里仍然有非常高的人气，民主党民意调查专家塞琳达·莱克(Celinda Lake)说。

　　Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center, said Mrs. Clinton’s profile in the polls was like that of an incumbent facing re-election.

　　皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)主任斯科特·克特尔(Scott Keeter)说，希拉里在民调中的状况，类似于现任官员在争取连任。

　　“We know from political science that a significant majority of the electorate, upward of 90 percent, know how they’ll vote,” he said. “You’re talking about 10 to 15 percent of the electorate who are in play, and then you have to factor in enthusiasm and turnout.”

　　“我们从政治学中知道，绝大多数的选民都知道自己会投谁的票，这个比例可以高达90%，”他说。“你要关注的是大约10%到15%的选民如何投票，然后你必须考虑到积极性和投票率的因素。”

　　The slivers of swing voters Mrs. Clinton’s campaign hopes she can sway include married women in the suburbs. “They love her experience,” Ms. Lake said, “and they like the idea of having a woman president.”

　　希拉里的竞选活动想争取一些摇摆不定的选民群体，其中包括郊区的已婚妇女。“她们喜爱她的经历，”莱克说，“她们乐意有一个女总统。”

　　The unknown “wild card” is whether Mrs. Clinton’s chance to make history as the first female president will motivate voters who may be less inclined to support her, Mr. Keeter said.

　　未知的“万能牌”是：希拉里创造历史、成为美国首位女总统的机会，是否会激发那些可能不太倾向于支持她的选民的热情，克特尔说。

　　Similarly, voters under 30 years old were far more likely to be undecided or to say they did not have an opinion of Mrs. Clinton, according to the Times-CBS poll.

　　同样，据《纽约时报》和CBS的民调显示，30岁以下的选民有远远更大的可能尚未决定如何投票，或者尚未形成对希拉里的看法。

　　“Even though she’s so well known, there’s an aspect of a slate that can be written upon,” said Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan, who is co-chairwoman of Priorities USA Action, a pro-Clinton “super PAC.” “Young people may need to be reminded about her.”

　　“即使她已经如此知名，但仍然可能在某个方面进一步给人留下印象，”密歇根州前州长、“优先美国行动”(Priorities USA Action)的联合主席詹妮弗·格兰霍姆(Jennifer Granholm)说，“可能需要就她向年轻人做出提醒。”“优先美国行动”是亲希拉里的“超级政治行动委员会”(super PAC)。

　　The 2016 campaign is still in its early days, making this the prime time for the candidates to try to shape what the voters think of them. The later it gets, the harder that can be.

　　2016年的竞选活动仍处于初期阶段，因此现在正是黄金时间，候选人可以尝试影响选民对自己的看法。这件事越到后面就会越困难。

　　In 2004, the Democratic nominee, John Kerry, who battled an image of being effete, took a well-publicized hunting trip dressed in camouflage, hoping to show he could relate to voters who drive pickup trucks with gun racks.

　　2004年，人们觉得民主党总统候选人约翰·克里(John Kerry)看上去疲惫不堪，为了消除这种印象，克里做了一次广为人知的狩猎之旅，他身着迷彩服，希望展示自己可以与那些配备枪架的皮卡车车主选民有相通之处。