委内瑞拉还能撑多久？

After years of decline, the situation in Venezuela is becoming desperate. Could the latest fall in the oil prices provide the tipping point that finally brings to an end the unhappy period of Marxist rule begun by Hugo Chavez in 1999?

经历多年衰落后，委内瑞拉的形势正变得令人绝望。最新一轮石油价格下跌会成为转折点、最终结束乌戈•查韦斯(Hugo Chávez) 1999年开启的马克思主义统治不幸时期吗?

In the last two months the oil price has fallen by 20 per cent, ending the hopes of producers around the world that the downward slide of the last two years is over and that prices will soon return to a level that they used to regard as “normal”. For many, the latest fall will be the last straw. Numerous companies have maintained their dividend payments through borrowing. With prices falling again that looks unsustainable. Many, including the state companies, also face hard investment decisions on projects that need higher prices to be viable. With capex requirements outstripping revenue and little prospect of raising more money through rights issues more projects will be postponed or abandoned.

过去两个月，油价下跌了20%，浇灭了世界各地生产者的希望——他们原本期待过去两年的下跌势头已经结束，油价很快就会回归他们过去视为“正常”的水平。对许多生产商而言，最新一轮油价下跌将成为压垮他们的最后一根稻草。多家石油公司近期通过借款维持股息。随着油价再度下跌，这种做法看起来难以为继。在一些需要较高油价支撑才可行的项目上，很多石油公司(包括国有企业)还面临艰难的投资决策。由于资本支出需求超过营收、且通过配售新股筹得更多资金的前景渺茫，更多项目将被推迟或放弃。

But perhaps the harshest effects of the fall in prices will be felt in countries that are utterly dependent on oil revenue. There the result will be economic decline, rising unemployment and potentially serious social unrest as expectations in terms of living standards and welfare payments are forced down. That is true across much of Opec but nowhere are the problems greater than in Venezuela.

但受油价下跌影响最严重的或许就是那些完全依赖石油收入的国家。在这些国家，油价下跌造成的结果是经济衰退、失业率上升，而且由于民众对生活标准、福利支出的期望值被迫降低，还有可能造成严重的社会动荡。欧佩克(OPEC)大多数国家都是如此，但没有哪个国家比委内瑞拉面临的问题更严重。

For years, the situation in the country has been deteriorating. Political decisions have undermined the independence and capability of the state-owned PDVSA, which was once one of the world’s great energy companies. Oil provides 95 per cent of export revenue and Venezuela has never succeeded in diversifying the economy. Falling prices have compounded the problem of falling production. The result is a deep recession with gross domestic product predicted to fall by 10 per cent this year. Unemployment is officially 20 per cent, and probably much more in reality. Inflation is 700 per cent and rising, according to the International Monetary Fund. There are desperate shortages of imports, including of basic foods and medicine.

多年来，委内瑞拉的形势一直在恶化。各种政治决定削弱了国有的委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)——曾经是不错的能源公司之一——的独立性及经营能力。石油提供了该国95%的出口收入，而委内瑞拉在实现经济多样化方面从未取得成功。不断下降的油价加剧了产量下滑问题。结果是经济深度衰退，今年国内生产总值(GDP)预计将收缩10%。官方统计的失业率为20%，但实际可能要高得多。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，委内瑞拉的通胀率达到了700%，而且还在上升。进口商品极度短缺，包括基本食品和药品。

In recent months the situation has worsened – with the latest price decline hitting oil revenue yet again. Volumes are also down – to 2.1m barrels a day in June with the prospect of a further fall by the end of the year to perhaps as little as 1.7mbd. That would represent a 30-year low. The fall is the result of lack of investment, the chronic shortage of electricity that affects the whole of Venezuela and, most recently, the decision of some of the major international service companies such as Schlumberger and Halliburton to reduce activity in the face of accumulating unpaid debts running into billions of dollars.

最近几个月，委内瑞拉的形势进一步恶化——最新一轮油价下跌再次打击了石油收入。石油产量也在下滑——6月的产量为210万桶/天，预计到今年底可能进一步下滑至仅170万桶/天。那将是30年来的最低水平。导致石油产量下降的原因包括投资不足、影响整个委内瑞拉的长期电力短缺，以及最近一些大型国际石油服务企业——如斯伦贝谢(Schlumberger)和哈利伯顿(Halliburton)——在面临累计高达数十亿美元的未偿债务之际决定削减业务。

This should be a recipe for the long-predicted change of government. President Nicolas Maduro , who succeeded Hugo Chavez in 2013, is clearly well dug in, reinforced by oppressive legislation and corruption and by residual support among sections of Venezuelan society, including some of the military. The defence minister, General Vladimir Padrino López, was recently given powers that come close to martial law but it is not clear how he can turn the economy around. In the end something must give and the point at which the regime will collapse under the weight of economic failure now feels closer than ever.

这应当成为人们预计已久的政府更迭的契机。2013年接替查韦斯出任总统的尼古拉斯•马杜罗(Nicolas Maduro)显然想要坚守权力宝座，高压立法、腐败以及委内瑞拉社会某些部分(包括军方的一些势力)残存的支持强化了他的地位。委内瑞拉国防部长弗拉基米尔•帕德里诺•洛佩斯(Vladimir Padrino López)将军最近被授予近乎军管的大权，但看不出他有什么办法扭转经济局面。最终，总会出现变化，在经济失败的重压下，委内瑞拉政权似乎比以往任何时候都更加接近崩溃。

At current oil prices, a full-scale default cannot be far away. Until there is a new government both lenders and investors will turn away, adding to the economic problems. The crucial question is what the Chinese will do. They have lent Venezuela about $125bn over the last 15 years but Beijing may well decide enough is enough and that it does not need to lend more to get the access to oil that it wants. At current prices the repayments in kind absorb around 800,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude exports.

在当前油价下，委内瑞拉距离全面违约不可能很远。除非产生新的政府，否则贷款机构和投资者将对该国敬而远之，进一步加剧经济困难。关键问题在于中国会怎样做。过去15年间，中国已经贷给委内瑞拉约1250亿美元，但北京方面很可能决定是时候止损了，再说中国不再需要为获得想要的石油而发放更多贷款。按当前油价计算，委内瑞拉原油出口中，每天约80万桶要用于偿还欠中国的债务。

The service companies could withdraw altogether or reduce their activity to an absolute minimum and that, in turn, could lead to a collapse in oil output. The Venezuelan military is trying to put together its own oil services company but the effort is laughable.

石油服务公司可能完全撤出委内瑞拉，或是将业务削减至绝对最低限度，这进而可能导致石油产量暴跌。委内瑞拉军方试图拼凑自己的石油服务公司，但他们的努力成为了笑柄。

Behind the immediate flow of events a reassessment of Venezuela’s real potential is taking place. The country claims to have the world’s largest oil reserves – some 298bn barrels. This is not only a suspiciously precise number. It is also grossly inflated. Only a decade ago Venezuelan reserves were just 80bn barrels. The increase is the product of politics and the period of high prices that lasted until 2014. Genuine reserves as opposed to resources should be capable of being developed both technically and commercially. As the oil price sinks towards $40, the amount that is capable of being developed commercially will inevitably fall . Venezuela isn’t the only country facing the challenge but it is probably the most vulnerable to a very sharp downward revision.

在这些当前的事件流背后，各方正在重新评估委内瑞拉的真实潜力。委内瑞拉宣称拥有世界最大规模的石油储量——约2980亿桶。这一数字不仅精确得令人怀疑，还存在严重夸大。就在10年前，委内瑞拉的石油储量还只有800亿桶。如此大幅的提升是政治以及持续至2014年的高价周期的产物。真实的石油储量(而非资源)应该在技术上和商业上能够被开发。随着油价跌向40美元，商业上能够被开发的石油储量将不可避免地下降。委内瑞拉并非唯一面临这种挑战的国家，但它很可能是最易受储量大幅下调冲击的国家。

Is political change possible? I have always thought so. Venezuela is an open society with great skills and strengths, even if many of the people now with the greatest skills are expatriates. Even if oil volumes are downgraded, the country has a strong untapped base of natural resources and easy access to the markets of North America. Chavez and his successors have damaged Venezuela but they have not completely destroyed the potential of a country that should be one of the most successful in Latin America.

政治变化可能吗?我一直认为答案是肯定的。委内瑞拉是一个开放的社会，拥有很多人才和优势——即使很多最优秀人才现在都外流了。即使石油储量遭到下调，委内瑞拉仍拥有大量尚未开发的自然资源和进入北美市场的便利条件。查韦斯及其继任者对委内瑞拉造成了破坏，但是他们并没有完全摧毁这个本应是拉美最成功国家之一的潜力。

If ever a nation needs and deserves a revolution it is Venezuela.

古往今来，如果有哪个国家需要而且应该爆发一场革命的话，那就是当下的委内瑞拉。