FT社评：美国政坛笼罩着“反乌托邦”情绪

　　Anyone watching the first presidential debate would be forgiven for thinking the US was on the brink of collapse. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, insisted the US was a third-world country suffering an almost biblical flight of jobs to China and beyond. Violence was out of control and parts of the country were now in open warfare.

　　如果你观看美国总统候选人首场电视辩论后得出美国危在旦夕的印象，那是可以理解的。共和党总统候选人唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)坚称，美国是第三世界国家，承受着工作机会大规模流失到中国和其他地区的苦果。国内暴力活动已经失控，部分地区如今陷于公开的冲突之中。

　　Hillary Clinton’s language may have been rather less melodramatic. But she shared Mr Trump’s premise about the threat posed to the US by an open global economy. She declined the chance to re-embrace the Trans-Pacific Partnership that she once labelled a gold standard of trade deals. She also failed to spell out what kind of America the world should expect if she were to succeed Barack Obama. Their message to Americans was: “Be afraid. Be very afraid.” The rest of the world should take note.

　　希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的措辞或许没那么耸人听闻，但她也赞同特朗普关于开放的全球经济对美国造成威胁的观点。她排除了重新支持《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)的可能性，她曾经称这份协定为贸易协定的黄金标准。希拉里也未能阐明，如果她接替了巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)之位，世界将会看到一个怎样的美国。这两位都向美国人传达了这样的信息：“要小心，要十分小心。”世界其他地区应该注意这一点。

　　The big puzzle is the gap between the relatively healthy reality of the American economy, particularly compared with Europe and Japan, and the dystopia gripping its politics. Contrary to Mr Trump’s depiction of a jobless America, the US unemployment rate is just 4.9 per cent, which is less than half that of parts of Europe.

　　美国经济状况实际上是比较健康的，特别是与欧洲和日本相比的话，然而美国政坛却笼罩着一种“反乌托邦”情绪，这是让人颇为费解的地方。按照特朗普的描述，美国到处充斥着无业人员，而实际上美国失业率仅为4.9%，不到欧洲部分国家的一半。

　　Even in rust belt states such as Michigan and Ohio, joblessness has fallen far and reasonably fast since the Great Recession of 2008. Moreover, immigrants, illegal or otherwise, are not taking all the jobs — or suppressing workers’ wages. The rate of illegal entries into the US mostly from Mexico has gone into reverse. After a drought lasting more than a decade, US median incomes last year finally began to grow again. It is one thing to scapegoat trade and foreigners in the midst of a depression. It is quite another to do so when recovery is finally bearing some fruit.

　　就算是在密歇根州和俄亥俄州等“锈带”地区，自2008年大衰退(Great Recession)以来，失业率也以相当快的速度有了大幅度的下降。另外，移民——不管是非法移民还是合法移民——并没有抢走所有的工作岗位，也没有拉低工资水平。主要来自墨西哥的非法移民数量已经在减少。在经历了长达10多年的停滞后，美国收入中值去年终于开始再次增长。在经济萧条时把贸易和外国人当成替罪羊是一回事。在经济复苏终于取得一些成果时这么嫁祸于人就是另一回事了。

　　That said, there is method in America’s frustration, even if the blame for it is misdirected. Middle-class incomes have finally started to advance again. But they remain considerably below where they were at the start of the century. If annual income growth had tracked normal patterns, they would now be almost a third higher than they are.

　　话虽如此，美国的失望情绪自有其道理，即便个中原因受到了误导。中产阶级收入终于开始再次增长，但依然远低于本世纪初的水平。如果年度收入增长遵循正常形态，它们现在的收入将会高出近三分之一。

　　The distribution of US aggregate growth has also skewed more sharply towards the top 10 per cent, particularly the top 1 per cent. Meanwhile, US productivity growth, and trend annual growth in gross domestic product, have both slowed sharply in recent years.

　　美国总体增长的分配向收入最高的10%人群——尤其是1%人群——倾斜得更厉害了。与此同时，美国生产率增速以及国内生产总值(GDP)趋势年度增长率在最近几年都大幅放缓了。

　　There is little reason to suppose that there is another 1990s productivity miracle just around the corner. The outlook for blue-collar men in particular is bleak. One in eight prime-aged males is no longer in the job market, according to a report from the Council of Economic Advisers. In the absence of a dramatic turnround in skills training, that number is set to rise further. So too, will the politics of irate venting that has fuelled Mr Trump’s candidacy.

　　几乎没有理由认为，上世纪90年代那种生产率增长奇迹即将重现。蓝领男性的前景尤其黯淡。白宫经济顾问委员会(US Council of Economic Advisers)的报告显示，八分之一的壮年男性退出了就业市场。在技能培训没有显著改善的情况下，这一比例势必进一步上升。发泄愤怒的政治策略——特朗普凭借这种策略获得候选人资格——也将更有用武之地。

　　What can be done? The responsibility of a leader is to be straight with the people. Neither trade, nor technology, should be blamed for Washington’s failure to equip its workforce for the 21st century.

　　怎么做呢?领导人有责任向民众说清实情。政府未能帮助其劳动人口掌握应对21世纪所需的知识技能，这不应该怪贸易，也不应该怪技术。

　　Both Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton pander to the idea that comfortable mid-20th century factory-floor jobs can simply be willed back into existence. It is a myth. The blame for America’s labour force woes and the increasingly skewed distribution of the fruits of growth are to be found at home. It is Washington, not Beijing, which sets US tax rates. The answer to most of America’s challenges are to be found in the booming cities and technological hubs of 21st century America. Blaming it on foreigners may be good tactics. But it could result in terrible policies that will only deepen the malaise.

　　特朗普和希拉里都附和有关20世纪中叶那种安逸的工厂工作还会回来的观点。这简直是神话。美国劳动力困境和增长果实分配日益不公平的问题应该从国内找原因。是华盛顿、而非北京制定了美国税率。解决美国大部分挑战的答案可以在21世纪美国那些欣欣向荣的城市和科技中心找到。怪罪在外国人身上可能是好策略，但可能导致糟糕的政策，从而加剧困境。