西方应该如何遏制俄罗斯？

Relations between the US and Russia have reached their lowest point in 30 years. Not since Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev began the effort to end the cold war have relations between the two been this bad.

美国与俄罗斯的关系已跌落至30年来最低点。自从罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)和米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)启动结束冷战的努力以来，两国关系从未像现在这么糟糕过。

On October 7, the US intelligence chief General James Clapper announced that the Kremlin’s “senior-most officials” had authorised hacks into the emails of US individuals and institutions to interfere in the election process. This followed a decision by John Kerry, secretary of state, to end a bilateral effort to negotiate an end to the brutal fighting in Syria and his accusation that Russian military actions in Aleppo amounted to war crimes.

10月7日，美国国家情报总监(DNI)詹姆斯•克拉珀(James Clapper)宣布，克里姆林宫的“最高级官员”授权黑客入侵美国个人和机构的电邮，以干扰美国的大选进程。此前，美国国务卿约翰•克里(John Kerry)决定叫停旨在结束叙利亚血腥战斗的双边努力，并指责俄罗斯在阿勒颇的军事行动构成战争犯罪。

In turn, President Vladimir Putin ended participation in an agreement with the US to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium. And then Moscow shipped nuclear-capable missile systems to Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and the Baltic states, posing an immediate threat to America’s most exposed Nato allies.

对此，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)退出了与美国的武器级钚处理协议。接着，莫斯科方面将能够搭载核弹头的导弹系统运至夹在波兰与波罗的海国家之间的加里宁格勒(Kaliningrad)，对处在最大风险位置的美国在北约的盟友构成直接威胁。

This shows how badly relations have deteriorated since the illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine in early 2014. So far, neither Washington nor its European allies have produced a coherent response to Russia’s increasingly dangerous behaviour.

这表明，自2014年初俄罗斯非法吞并克里米亚并入侵乌克兰以来，美俄关系已恶化到非常严重的程度。迄今为止，美国及其欧洲盟友都没有对俄罗斯日益危险的行为做出一致回应。

Nato has taken some steps to bolster the defence of its allies in the east, and European members have begun to reverse the decade-long slide in defence spending and capabilities. The US and Canada joined the EU in imposing sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the downing of a Malaysian airliner in July 2014.

北约已采取一些措施加强对其东翼盟友的防御，欧盟成员国已开始逆转国防开支和军事实力长达10年的滑坡。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及马来西亚一架民航客机在2014年7月被击落以后，美国和加拿大加入欧盟的行列，一起对俄罗斯实施了制裁。

But none of this adds up to a coherent strategy. Too many, in Europe especially, believe that political and economic engagement, coupled with military forbearance, will eventually bring Moscow around to a more constructive attitude. While the attempt to integrate Russia into the western system was a worthwhile experiment, it failed. Integration is Mr Putin’s greatest fear, because it would undermine his control of the Russian system. Like his Soviet predecessors, he needs the antagonism of the west to protect his standing at home.

但所有这些都算不上一致的战略。太多人(特别是在欧洲)认为，政治和经济上的接触，加上军事上的克制，最终将让俄罗斯拿出更建设性的态度。让俄罗斯加入西方体系的尝试是有意义的，但失败了。融合是普京最担心的，因为这将削弱他对俄罗斯体制的控制。与他在苏联时代的前任一样，他需要西方的敌对来保护自己在国内的地位。

What, then, would be an effective response to Russia’s behaviour? The answer is a strategy of containment.

那么，什么才是针对俄罗斯行为的有效回应呢?答案是遏制战略。

In 1946, the American diplomat George Kennan argued that containment was the necessary response to a Soviet system that was driving towards external expansion because of internal weaknesses. Bringing Moscow into the family of nations, as Franklin Roosevelt had attempted to do, was bound to fail. Outside pressure would lead to the internal change necessary to modify external Soviet behaviour, Kennan said.

1946年，美国外交家乔治•凯南(George Kennan)主张，遏制是对苏联体制的必要回应，当时苏联正因国内虚弱转向对外扩张。像富兰克林•罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)那样试图把俄罗斯纳入国际大家庭的努力注定要失败。凯南表示，外部压力将促成改变苏联对外行为所必需的国内改革。

During the cold war, the big question for the US and its allies was whether to oppose expansion whenever and wherever it occurred, or to isolate Moscow diplomatically and economically while bolstering the protection of American interests in Europe and Asia.

在冷战时期，美国及其盟友面临的一个重大问题是，应该在扩张发生的任何时间和任何地方作出反制，还是在外交和经济上孤立俄罗斯、同时增强对美国在欧洲和亚洲利益的保护?

The debate is much the same today. Some maintain that we need to oppose Russia everywhere it manifests its power — in Ukraine, in Syria and in cyber space. Others that we need to strengthen Nato and exploit Russia’s deteriorating economy and lack of ideological appeal abroad.

如今的辩论大致相同。一些人坚称，我们需要在俄罗斯炫耀实力的所有地方(乌克兰、叙利亚和网络空间)跟俄罗斯作对。还有一些人声称，我们需要加强北约的实力，同时利用俄罗斯的弱点，包括经济日益恶化和在国外缺乏意识形态影响力。

Now, as then, containment must be a long-term strategy, best sustained by emphasising western strengths and Russian weaknesses. The core of our strength is western unity. That is why President Barack Obama and other Nato leaders were right to respond to the invasion of Ukraine by boosting the alliance’s defences. Russia’s greatest vulnerability is its economy, dependent as it is on resource extraction; a strong regime of sanctions will hurt Moscow.

如今，与过去一样，遏制必须是一项长期战略，强调西方优势和俄罗斯劣势将最有利于维持这一战略。我们的力量核心是西方阵营的团结。正因如此，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和其他北约领导人通过增强同盟防御来回应俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的做法是正确的。俄罗斯的最大脆弱性在于国内经济依赖资源开采;强大的制裁机制将触到莫斯科方面的痛处。

We need to recognise Russia is an insecure power driven by internal weakness. Containment took 40 years to bring about a change in Soviet behaviour and ultimately the collapse of the USSR. Russia is far weaker now than the Soviet Union was then, but it will still take years to change the way it behaves. Like then, containment requires patience and firmness to succeed.

我们需要认识到，俄罗斯是一个缺乏安全感的大国，其推动力是内部虚弱。遏制战略用了40年时间让苏联的行为发生改变，最终导致苏联解体。现在的俄罗斯比当年的苏联虚弱得多，但仍需坚持多年才能改变其行为方式。与那时一样，遏制战略需要耐心和坚定才能成功。