美国民主迎来严峻大考

Fair enough, there was the US civil war. Amid all the carnage the Yankees still went ahead with the 1862 and 1864 elections on schedule. Other than then, there is little in US history to compare with what is at stake on Tuesday.

的确，美国有过内战。北方佬一面杀得昏天暗地，一面仍在1862年和1864年如期举行了选举。除此之外，美国历史上没有多少危急时刻能与本周二相比。

Donald Trump, one of the possible next presidents, forecasts that the vote will be rigged. A Trump victory could still happen, which makes it so odd that he plays the sore loser before actually losing. Hillary Clinton, the other candidate, believes the US system is working fine except for the threat posed by Mr Trump. In its way, Mrs Clinton’s outlook is almost as deluded as her opponent’s. America’s system of democracy is teetering, whether or not Mr Trump wins on Tuesday.

下届美国总统候选人之一唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)预言选举将受到操控。特朗普仍可能获胜，因此他在真的落选前摆出输不起的样子就显得十分奇怪。另一位候选人希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)认为除了特朗普构成的威胁之外，美国的制度运作良好。希拉里的前景几乎与她对手的一样令人迷惑。无论周二特朗普获胜与否，美国的民主制度都岌岌可危。

Imagine two kinds of threat: one where a bear breaks into your cabin, the other where termites eat it from within. Mr Trump is the bear. The upside to a Trump victory is that he would be unable to claim the election was stolen. Far from it. The 2016 vote count would be the cleanest in world history. America would be great again! That aside, it would be a disaster.

请想象有两种威胁，一种是有头熊闯入你的小屋，另一种是白蚁从内部蛀空你的屋子。特朗普就是那头熊。特朗普获胜的好处是他无法宣称此次大选有人做了手脚，相反，他会宣称2016年大选计票是史上最干净的。美国将再次伟大!但除此之外，他的获胜将是一场灾难。

Many serenely predict US democracy would emerge intact from a Trump presidency. Their reassurance comes in two parts. The first is that Mr Trump would surround himself with experienced advisers who would curb his worst instincts. The second is that even if Mr Trump’s team were crackpots, the US constitution would correct any over-reach.

许多人都淡定地预测美国民主将毫发无损地渡过特朗普任期。他们的信心来自两方面。首先是特朗普身边将环绕着经验丰富的顾问，他们会遏制他那些最糟糕的本能反应。其次是就算特朗普团队是群疯子，美国宪法也会纠正任何逾矩之举。

They are too complacent. Most of those advising Mr Trump are as unsettling as he is. First among these is Mr Trump. “My primary foreign policy adviser is myself and I have a good instinct for this stuff,” he says. Bear in mind he has questioned the point of nuclear weapons unless they are used. He has also recommended China’s neighbours acquire their own. The decision to play the nuclear card is the president’s alone. The Pentagon can only advise. Virtually every Republican with national security experience signed a letter in August warning that Mr Trump would be “the most reckless president in history”.

这些人太自满了。给特朗普提建议的绝大部分人都跟他一样不靠谱，而最不靠谱的就是特朗普本人。他说：“我的首席外交政策顾问就是我自己，我在这种事上有很好的天赋。”别忘了他曾质疑核武器除非被使用，否则毫无意义。他还建议中国的诸邻国自己去发展核武器。只有总统能决定要不要打核武器这张牌，五角大楼只能提出建议。几乎每一位拥有国家安全相关经验的共和党人都在八月签署了一封公开信，警告特朗普将是“史上最鲁莽的总统。”

Then there is his political team. We need go no further than Stephen Bannon, his campaign chief, who is former head of the hard right website, Breitbart News. Anyone who cherishes America’s first amendment rights should be very afraid. Mr Bannon would be in line to become Mr Trump’s White House’s ideological director.

再来说他的政治团队。我们只要看看他的竞选活动执行总裁斯蒂芬•班农(Stephen Bannon)就够了，此人之前是极右翼网站Breitbart News的负责人。所有珍视美国宪法第一修正案所赋权利的人都应感到恐惧。特朗普若当选，班农将成为特朗普政府的意识形态主管。

Second, America’s system of checks and balances relies on those upholding it. Leaving aside his character, Mr Trump has no respect for constitutional boundaries. The last president to breach their limits was Richard Nixon. He was forced from office in 1974 for covering up his administration’s complicity in the burglary of the offices of the Democratic National Committee. The system worked, but it took two years.

其次，美国的制衡制度依赖于那些维护这一制度的人。且不说特朗普的个性，他还毫不尊敬宪法的边界。上一任突破宪法边界的总统是理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)。1974年，因在民主党全国委员会(DNC)办公室遭窃听案中掩盖他的政府参与此事，尼克松被迫辞职。制衡制度虽起了作用，但花了两年时间。

Nixon had an expansive view of the president’s powers. “When the president does it, that means it is not illegal,” he said. That is also Mr Trump’s view.

尼克松对总统权力抱着一种膨胀的心理。他说：“当总统做一件事时，意味着这件事并不违法。”这也是特朗普的观点。

But Nixon’s secret lawbreaking pales against what Mr Trump openly vows to do. He has publicly urged Russia to burgle Democratic databases. He has also threatened to jail Mrs Clinton, reinstate torture, cancel treaties and start a global trade war. Some of this is illegal. Some of it is legal.

但与特朗普公开发誓要做的事情相比，尼克松的秘密违法行为也相形见绌。特朗普公开敦促俄罗斯入侵民主党数据库。他还威胁要让希拉里坐牢，恢复酷刑，取消种种协定，发动全球贸易战争。这里面有些是非法的，有些是合法的。

Much of what Mr Trump promises lies in between. Either way, it could take the US courts months or years to rule on his actions. By then much of the damage would be done.

特朗普的许多承诺介于两者之间。无论合法与否，都需要美国法庭花费数月乃至数年时间才能做出裁决。届时许多破坏已经造成。

How could a Clinton victory possibly compare? If she won by a landslide — and the Democrats regained control of Congress — all bets would be off. But that is not going to happen. No poll has put her close to 50 per cent since the election began. The dangers of a Clinton presidency are no less troubling for their subtlety.

希拉里获胜的结果与此怎能相比呢?如果她获得压倒性胜利——而且民主党重获国会控制权——一切都将变化莫测。但这种情况不会发生。自开始竞选以来，她在所有民调中的胜选几率从未接近50%。希拉里当选总统的危险之处虽然难以名状，却同样令人不安。

Before Mrs Clinton is elected, Republicans are vowing to block whatever she tries. John McCain, her closest Republican friend, says he will oppose any Supreme Court nominee she submits. Others have threatened impeachment hearings.

希拉里还没当选，共和党人就已誓言要阻挠她做事。共和党人中与希拉里关系最好的朋友约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)表示，他将反对希拉里提名的任何最高法院法官人选。其他人则威胁要举行弹劾听证会。

The Republican party is hopelessly divided. It spans pro-globalisation multiculturalists and nativist protectionists. In most other democracies, it would have split into different parties. The one glue keeping Republicans together is abhorrence of Mrs Clinton.

共和党无可救药地陷入分裂之中。它既有支持全球化的多元文化主义者，也有奉行本土主义的保护主义者。在其他大多数民主国家里，这样的政党早就分裂为不同的党派了，唯一让共和党人凝聚在一起的是对希拉里的厌恶。

This is without mentioning Mr Trump’s threat to cry foul if he loses. Either way, Republicans aim to make a desert of Mrs Clinton’s presidency and call it democracy. They have the means to do so. Four more years of gridlock would only deepen America’s popular frustration.

这还不算特朗普如果输掉的话还要叫屈。无论哪种方式，共和党人的目的都是要让希拉里在总统任内一事无成，并将此称为民主。他们有办法做到这点。再来4年的僵局只会加剧美国民众的挫败感。

The good thing about a bear is that you can see it coming. Termites are invisible. It is hard to pinpoint when they began to eat away at the foundations. When and why did Americans lose faith in their system? There is no consensus on this either. Some point to rising inequality. Others blame the growth of government. It does not mean Americans cannot regain the trust they have lost.

熊来了，至少你能看到。而白蚁是看不见的。很难确定它们什么时候开始侵蚀根基。美国人什么时候以及为何对他们的体制失去信心?这方面同样没有共识。一些人认为是不平等现象日益加剧造成的。其他人则归咎于政府角色的扩大。这并不意味着美国人无法重拾信心。

But for the time being the US is becoming steadily harder to govern. As Abraham Lincoln said, a house divided cannot stand. Though he faced far deadlier challenges, Lincoln’s observation is as true today as when he said it. The basis of US democracy is co-operation. Whatever happens after Tuesday is unlikely to fit that description.

但就目前而言，美国正变得越来越难以治理。正如亚伯拉罕•林肯(Abraham Lincoln)所言，分裂之家不能持久。尽管他当年面临艰巨得多的挑战，但林肯的话放至今日仍有道理。美国民主的基础是合作。本周二之后无论发生什么情况都不太可能符合这种描述。