三季度美国经济增长强劲

US growth heated up more than initially thought in the third quarter, while a key measure of housing prices surpassed its pre-recession peak, in the latest sign that Donald Trump will inherit a brightening economy.

今年第三季度，美国的增长超出了最初预期，而一项关键房价指标超过了衰退前的峰值。这一最新迹象表明，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将要继承一个前景光明的经济。

The world’s biggest developed market grew at an annualised rate of 3.2 per cent in the third quarter, according to a second reading of gross domestic product from the commerce department. That compares with Wall Street estimates of 3 per cent and an initial reading of 2.9 per cent.

根据美国商务部第二次给出的美国国内生产总值(GDP)数据，这个全球最大发达国家第三季度的年化增长率为3.2%。这一数字超过了华尔街3%的估计，也超过了2.9%的初值。

The data released yesterday confirm that the economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest rate in two years, representing a sharp pick-up from the 0.8 per cent and 1.4 per cent pace logged in the first and second quarters.

这一在昨天发布的数据，确认了美国经济在第三季度出现了两年内最快增长速度，相对一季度的0.8%和二季度的1.4%出现大幅上扬。

Consumption growth, a key element of US economic output, was revised higher to a 2.8 per cent pace, from the previous reading of 2.1 per cent. As opposed to the initial GDP reading, which was “boosted by unseasonably large soyabean exports and inventory rebuilding”, the “composition of growth is now much stronger”, according to Andrew Hollenhorst, a Citigroup strategist. “In particular, strength in consumption bodes well for growth in coming quarters.”

作为美国经济产出关键元素的消费增长速度，也从此前的2.1%调高至2.8%。花旗集团(Citigroup)策略师安德鲁•霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)表示，与“受到反季节性大规模大豆出口和重建库存推高”的GDP初值不同，“现在增长的构成要强劲得多”，“特别是，消费强劲对未来几个季度的增长是个好兆头”。

Separately, a closely-watched measure of US home prices in September shot past a peak set at the height of the housing boom in 2006, as home prices across the nation continued to post steady gains that could signal the post-recession housing market has turned a critical corner. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national price index reported a 5.5 per cent annual gain in September, surpassing a high notched in July 2006 amid the housing boom.

另外，一项受到密切关注的美国房价衡量指标，在9月份超过了2006年楼市繁荣时期创下的峰值。与此同时，美国全国房价继续录得稳步增长，这或许预示着后衰退时代的楼市已出现关键转机。9月份标准普尔CoreLogic Case-Shiller全国房价指数录得5.5%的同比增长率，超过了2006年7月楼市繁荣期间录得的最高值。

The signs of strength in the US economy as Mr Trump prepares to assume the presidency are in stark contrast to those inherited by his predecessor, Barack Obama, who took office at the depths of the financial crisis. Mr Trump has vowed to further ramp up US economic growth to about 3.5 per cent a year on average through “the most pro-growth, pro-jobs, pro-family plan put forth perhaps in the history of our country”. The billionaire property developer plans to boost the economy through a mixture of government spending, lower taxes and looser regulations.

在特朗普准备就任美国总统之际，美国经济势头强劲的种种迹象，与其前任巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)上任时形成了鲜明对比。后者上任时美国正处于金融危机的水深火热之中。特朗普已承诺要通过“也许是美国历史上实施的最支持增长、支持就业、支持家庭的计划”，将美国经济增速进一步提升至平均每年约3.5%的水平。这位身家亿万的房地产开发商计划通过扩大政府开支、减税和放松监管等多种手段的配合，提振美国经济。

“The US economy was on track to continue to grow and had generated some momentum for faster growth before the November election. If enacted, Donald Trump’s fiscal proposals will shift the economy to a higher gear,” noted Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

“在11月大选前，美国经济就处于继续增长的轨道上，并已出现了一些增长加快的势头。唐纳德•特朗普的财政提案如果实行，将把美国经济增速调至更高档位，”杰富瑞(Jefferies)首席金融经济学家沃德•麦卡锡(Ward McCarthy)指出。

While Wall Street economists have marked up their estimates for growth since the November 8 election, they still remain well below Mr Trump’s targets, at 2.2 per cent for both 2017 and 2018, a Bloomberg survey shows. Economists have also warned that Mr Trump’s protectionist trade and immigration stances could dim those positive effects.

彭博(Bloomberg)的一份调查显示，虽然在11月8日的选举以来，华尔街的经济学家已经调高他们对增长的估测，预计美国2017年和2018年均增长2.2%，但这些数值仍远低于特朗普的目标。经济学家还警告称，特朗普的保护主义贸易和移民立场可能削弱那些积极作用。