美联储可能超预期加息

Many officials of the US Federal Reserve said the central bank could be forced to lift rates higher than expected if Congress passed conomy-boosting tax cuts next year, according to minutes of the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2016.

根据美联储(Fed) 2016年最后一次政策会议的纪要，许多美联储官员表示，如果明年国会通过提振经济的减税方案，这家央行可能被迫把利息升高至超出预期的程度。

Almost all Fed officials meeting on December 13-14 said the risks of growth surpassing their forecasts had grown because of the possibility of more “expansionary” fiscal policy under president-elect Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress.

几乎所有参加12月13日至14日会议的美联储官员表示，增长超过预期的风险有所加大，因为当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和共和党控制的国会可能推出更具“扩张性”的财政政策。

However policymakers also stressed that it was too soon to jump to firm conclusions about what fiscal policy would actually look like. “Participants agreed that it was too early to know what changes in these policies would be implemented and how such changes might affect the economic outlook,” the minutes to the meeting said.

然而，这些政策制定者们还强调，至于未来财政政策究竟会是什么样子，要得出明确结论还为时过早。会议纪要称， “与会者一致认为，要了解何种政策变化将得到实施，以及这些变化可能如何影响经济前景，还为时过早。”

The Fed on December 14 raised short-term rates for only the second time in a decade and predicted a quicker speed of tightening this year compared with the one-a-year pace in 2015 and 2016. Speaking after the meeting, Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, said the Fed was existing in a “cloud of uncertainty” as it weighs the possibility of tax and spending changes under the new Congress and administration.

去年12月14日，美联储上调短期利率，这是10年来美联储第二次加息。同时，与2015年和2016年每年加息一次的速度相比，预计今年的加息速度将加快。美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)在会后表示，美联储在权衡新一届国会和新一届行政当局领导下税收和支出变化的可能性，它目前正被“不确定性阴云”笼罩。

Minutes of the meeting revealed on Wednesday show just how unclear the path of monetary policy is given Fed officials do not know what details will emerge from negotiations in Congress over the coming months. The possibility of a further surge in the dollar also re-emerged as an important risk factor.

周三公布的会议纪要显示，在美联储官员不知道未来数月国会谈判将得出什么具体结果的情况下，货币政策的路径是多么不清晰。美元进一步飙涨的可能性也再次成为一个重要的风险因素。