中国遏制资本外流之举波及万达

Has China’s crackdown on capital flight claimed its biggest name to date?

中国对资本外逃的打击是否已命中迄今最重头的目标?

The fate of a $1bn deal struck in November by Dalian Wanda, the Chinese real estate and entertainment giant, is in doubt. Sources with knowledge of Wanda’s buyout of the US’s Dick Clark Productions, the company behind the Golden Globe Awards, said last week that it was struggling to get approval to move money offshore, putting the transaction at risk.

中国房地产及娱乐业巨头大连万达(Dalian Wanda)去年11月达成一宗10亿美元的交易，如今该交易的命运却打上了问号。对于这宗万达收购美国迪克•克拉克制片公司(Dick Clark Productions)的交易，了解情况的消息人士在上周表示，由于万达难以获得将资金转往境外的相关批准，这宗交易面临着风险。迪克•克拉克制片公司是金球奖(Golden Globe Award)颁奖典礼的制作公司。

Wanda’s deal could survive if approvals come in time, people close to the matter said. But the delay highlights a shift in Beijing’s economic priorities.

知情人士表示，只要及时获得批准，万达的交易就有可能进行下去。不过，这一拖延凸显出中国政府经济政策重心的转移。

For more than a decade, the government has pushed its companies to go abroad and buy up foreign assets — specifically technologies and brand names that could be brought home and deployed in the local market. Deals — from iconic football teams in Europe to some of the largest chemical manufacturers in the world — have also signalled the global rise of China and the prowess of its corporate sector.

在逾10年的时间里，中国政府一直鼓励企业赴海外收购外国资产——尤其是可以带回国内、运用于国内市场的技术和品牌。这些交易涵盖了从欧洲大牌足球队到一些全球最大化工制造商在内的各种企业，它们也标志着中国在全球的崛起以及中国企业的强大。

But China’s massive dollar reserves, long a critical tool for propping up the value of the renminbi as companies sought dollars, have fallen below $3tn for the first time in six years. And the country’s forex regulator has indicated that halting capital outflows will trump company growth overseas. “China has become much more sensitive as foreign reserves pass below $3tn . . . Even state-owned enterprises are having trouble getting money offshore,” said Hong Hao, head of research and strategy at Bank of Communications International Securities. “The reach of Chinese companies is getting limited.”

然而，中国外汇储备6年来首次跌至3万亿美元以下——长期以来，在中企寻求美元的时候，中国海量外汇储备一直是支撑人民币汇率的关键工具。中国的外汇监管机构已暗示，遏制资本外流的重要性将大过企业海外增长。交银国际证券(Bank of Communications International Securities)研究与策略部门主管洪灏表示：“随着外储跌破3万亿美元，中国变得敏感多了……即使是国有企业也很难把资金转往境外。中企的投资触手正在受到限制。”

Wanda, controlled by Wang Jianlin, one of China’s richest men, has deep connections to the country’s top leadership but bankers familiar with the company said it was not surprising to find the group running into problems. “Even [state-owned enterprises] are getting stuck,” said one banker who deals with cross-border acquisitions at a Chinese bank. “Wanda’s problems are normal now.”

万达由中国巨富王健林(见文首图)控股，与中国最高领导层有着深层次联系。不过，熟悉该公司的银行业人士表示，万达遇到问题并不让人吃惊。一位在中资银行处理跨境并购的银行业人士表示：“(连国企)都堵上了。万达遇到的问题现在很常见。”

About $220bn in outbound acquisitions were announced by Chinese companies in 2016, more than double the figure of the year before. When the crackdown was announced late last year, bankers initially believed that smaller companies might face difficulties getting approval for moving cash offshore but deals strategic in nature — rather than speculative capital flight — would make it out of the gate. But the impact has been much bigger than anticipated.

2016年中企公布的境外并购规模约为2200亿美元，超过此前一年的两倍。打击资本外流的举措去年底公布时，银行业人士起初认为，规模较小的公司也许会难以获得将现金转往境外的相关批准，而战略性质的交易(而不是投机性的资本外逃)或许会过关。然而，这轮打击的影响大大超出了之前的预期。

The majority of live transactions have been delayed or even stopped in their tracks, bankers and lawyers say. At the same time, pending buyouts that have already received approval are being “re-evaluated” .

多名银行业人士和律师表示，绝大多数等待批准的交易都已被延迟甚至胎死腹中。与此同时，已经获批但尚未完成的并购交易正被“重新评估”。

“Not only is this halting live deals, it’s forcing companies to go back and review acquisitions that have already been approved,” Owen Chan, managing partner at Hogan Lovells in Hong Kong said. “That means there’s a risk to approved deals.”

霍金路伟律师事务所(Hogan Lovells)驻香港的管理合伙人陈爱民(Owen Chan)表示：“这不仅中断了正在等待批准的交易，还迫使企业回去审查已经获批的并购。也就是说，已经批准的交易也有风险。”

Few if any deals have been outrightly rejected by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China’s gatekeeper for capital outflows from the country.

不过，被中国国家外汇管理局直接驳回的交易就算有也少之又少。外管局是中国阻止资本外流的守门人。

Instead, the strategy taken up by Safe has been to delay deals by requiring re-evaluation by other regulators such as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) or the Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom), bankers familiar with the process said. Even after other regulators have re-evaluated the deal, Safe can make new requests for information, according to a senior M&A adviser at a global bank. Safe did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.

熟悉整个流程的银行业人士表示，事实上，外管局采取的策略，是通过要求中国国家发展和改革委员会以及中国商务部等其他监管机构开展重新评估，来拖延交易。一家全球性银行的一名资深并购顾问称，即使其他监管机构已经重新评估过该交易，外管局也还可提出对上报信息的新要求。对于有关此事的置评请求，外管局未予回应。

The volume of buyouts in January and February this year was still higher than in 2015 — Chinese companies have announced 14 cross-border transactions worth more than $100m a piece since the start of the year — showing that Chinese companies continued to pursue acquisitions overseas despite the risks.

今年1月和2月，收购交易规模仍然高于2015年——自年初以来，中企已公布14宗规模在1亿美元以上的跨境交易。这显示，尽管存在上述风险，中企仍在继续寻求海外并购。

Regulators such as Safe, NDRC and Mofcom have met recently to discuss how to co-ordinate the cross-border investment policy, said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist at ANZ — an acknowledgment that Beijing has sent mixed guidelines for overseas corporate expansion.

澳新银行(ANZ)大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆(Raymond Yeung)表示，外管局、国家发改委和商务部等监管机构最近已开会讨论如何协调跨境投资政策——此举等于是承认了中国政府在企业海外扩张方面传达了混乱的指示。

“The official stance is that they still support the ‘going out’ policy,” Mr Yeung said. “But I think regulators have seen how much money has been moved overseas and this has become their main focus for now.”

杨宇霆表示：“官方立场是他们仍支持‘走出去’的政策。不过我认为，监管机构已认识到资金转往海外的规模之大，现阶段这已成为他们的主要关注点。”