人民币贬值的双刃剑让中国企业好为难
中国佛山——鉴于中国控制货币的方式，广东志高空调有限公司乍一看似乎是个赢家。
For the past three years, China has allowed its currency, the renminbi, to weaken in value compared with the American dollar. On paper, that should bolster Chigo’s profits. Half of its $1.2 billion in annual sales come from abroad, mostly in dollars, and a weaker renminbi gives Chinese companies an advantage when they sell their products in other countries.
过去三年里，中国让自己的货币人民币相较美元贬值。理论上，这应该提高志高的利润。其12亿美元(约合80亿元人民币)的年销售额中，有一半来自国外，且主要是以美元结算;人民币贬值让中国的企业在其他国家销售产品时占据优势。
Yet the renminbi’s slide has provided only a marginal benefit, said Li Xinghao, the company’s founder and chairman. Big Western department store chains have learned to pit manufacturers against one another — and China is full of air-conditioner manufacturers. When the renminbi weakens, the chains simply tell factory bosses to cut their prices or lose the business to another Chinese factory.
但该公司的创始人、董事局主席李兴浩表示，人民币贬值只带来了边际收益。西方大的连锁百货公司已经学会让制造商相互竞争，而在中国，空调制造商遍地都是。人民币贬值时，那些连锁公司只是简单地让工厂老板降价，否则生意就会流向另一家中国工厂。
“It only brings benefits for the first month,” Mr. Li said. “For the next month, clients are recalculating what they’ll pay. The supply is much greater than demand, so profits can’t go up.”
“只是第一个月带来了好处，”李兴浩说。“第二个月，客户就在重新计算要付的价钱了。供远大于求，所以利润上不去。”
The renminbi is likely to be a major topic behind closed doors as Chinese lawmakers gather beginning on Sunday for the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the top lawmaking body in the country. President Trump had heavily criticized China during the campaign, saying that Beijing for many years used an artificially weak currency to unfairly help its businesses and steal American jobs.
本周日，中国立法者开始聚集起来，召开中国最高立法机构全国人民代表大会的年度会议时，人民币可能会是闭门讨论的一个重要话题。特朗普总统在竞选期间严厉指责中国，称多年来，北京利用被人为压低汇率的货币不公平地帮助中国企业，并窃取美国的就业岗位。
Mr. Trump has not acted on a campaign promise to label China a currency manipulator, and Steven Mnuchin, the new Treasury secretary, has said the administration is conducting a standard review of China’s currency policy. Still, Mr. Trump has kept up his rhetoric.
特朗普尚未兑现竞选时的承诺，将中国列为汇率操纵国，新任财政部长史蒂文·努钦(Steven Mnuchin)则表示，联邦政府正在对中国的汇率政策进行标准评估。但特朗普的口风并没有变。
Investors and economists widely expect market forces to push the renminbi to weaken even more. And that leaves China with some tough choices. If Beijing lets its currency slide, it will risk worsening relations with Washington.
投资者和经济专家普遍预计，市场力量会推动人民币进一步贬值。这会让中国面临棘手的选择。如果北京放任人民币贬值，就可能会导致与华盛顿的关系恶化。
On the other hand, a weaker currency would help its factories. But economists and business executives are increasingly throwing cold water on that thinking, saying the dynamic has changed: These days, they say, a weaker currency may hurt China and its companies more than it helps.
另一方面，货币贬值可能会有助于中国的工厂。但经济专家和企业高管越来越多地向这种想法泼冷水，称形势变了：他们说，如今货币贬值对中国和中国公司的伤害也许比帮助大。
Chinese officials, who keep a tight grip on the currency’s value, appear to be aware of that. In recent months, they have kept the value from falling to 7 renminbi to the dollar, a level the currency has not seen since May 2008. Currently, it is hovering at about 6.9 renminbi to the dollar. That support is expensive — China has drawn nearly $1 trillion from its huge stash of foreign money to hold its currency steady.
严格控制人民币价值的中国官员似乎也意识到了这一点。最近几个月，他们防止人民币汇率跌至自2008年5月以来从未出现过的7元人民币兑1美元。目前，人民币与美元之间的汇率在6.9元人民币兑1美元左右徘徊。这种支持代价昂贵：中国已从其庞大的外汇储备中抽出近1万亿美元，以维持人民币汇率稳定。
The currency is under pressure to depreciate for a number of reasons. Among them: Families and companies are sending their money out of China, looking for safer places to store it as the country’s growth cools.
人民币面临贬值压力的原因有很多，其中包括：随着中国经济的增长降温，家庭和公司正在把资产转移至国外，寻找更安全的存放地点。
China keeps a tight rein on the amount of money that flows over its borders. But between the semiautonomous Chinese city of Hong Kong, which has a separate currency and legal system, and its neighbor on the mainland, Shenzhen, “there are thousands and thousands of smugglers, and they just bring billions of dollars” out of China, said Kevin Lai, the chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets. A weaker currency could push more Chinese people and companies to send their money abroad, for fear of further losses if they continue to hold renminbi.
中国严格控制流出国境的资金金额。但大和资本市场(Daiwa Capital Markets)负责除日本外亚洲市场的首席经济学家赖志文(Kevin Lai)说，在有着单独货币和法律制度的中国半自治城市香港及其位于中国大陆的邻居深圳之间，“有千千万万的走私者，把数十亿美元”带出中国。人民币贬值可能会促使更多的中国民众和公司把资金转移到国外，因为他们如果担心继续持有人民币，会蒙受进一步的损失。
That isn’t all. The weaker currency makes it harder for many of China’s heavily indebted companies to pay off what they owe overseas or to raise more money. A weaker currency also does not pack the same competitive punch because so much of the world’s manufacturing base is now in China; four-fifths of the world’s window-mounted air-conditioners are made in the country, for example. Basically, a weaker currency is not as much help if a company’s competitors all use the same currency.
这还不是全部。人民币贬值会增加很多债台高筑的中国公司还清海外债务或筹集更多资金的难度。人民币贬值也并不会增强竞争力，因为全球制造业基地中很大部分都在中国。比如，全球五分之四的窗式空调是中国制造。总的来说，如果一家公司的竞争对手用的都是同一种货币，货币贬值就不会起太多作用。
Today’s dynamic signals a big shift from a decade ago. Back then, Beijing kept the currency artificially weak compared with the dollar — and Chinese businesses benefited. A cheap and stable currency was one of a number of reasons that companies like General Electric, Mattel and Samsonite shifted production there. The shift gave China tens of millions of manufacturing jobs, stoked its economy and helped create a world power.
今天的态势与十年前相比已经发生了很大的变化。那时，北京人为压低人民币相较于美元的价值，中国企业获益。低廉、稳定的货币是通用电气(General Electric)、美泰(Mattel)和新秀丽(Samsonite)等公司把生产转移到中国的众多原因之一。这种转移给中国提供了数千万个制造业工作岗位，刺激了中国经济，并帮助中国成为世界大国。
In time, it also helped nurture homegrown competitors. The Carrier Corporation — which has partly reversed plans to move some production from the United States to Mexico after coming under pressure from Mr. Trump — built seven air-conditioner factories in China more than a decade ago. But in 2008, Carrier put them into a joint venture with Midea, one of Chigo’s main rivals in the Chinese air-conditioner industry. Carrier said it still held 40 percent of the joint venture but declined to comment further.
最后，它还帮助培养了本土竞争对手。目前，在特朗普的压力下，开利公司(Carrier Corporation)已经部分改变了把一些生产从美国转移到墨西哥的计划。但十多年前，开利在中国建了七座空调厂。不过2008年，该公司把它们并入了与美的成立的一家合资企业。美的是志高在中国空调行业的主要竞争对手之一。开利自称仍持有该合资企业40%的股份，但拒绝进一步置评。
The weaker currency still helps a number of companies, especially a small but growing group of Chinese companies that export specialized or high-quality products and compete with Western companies. One such Chinese company is Broad Air Conditioning, a maker of specialized central air-conditioning systems that are more energy-efficient but also considerably more expensive than most central air-conditioning systems.
人民币贬值依然会帮到很多公司，特别是一批出口专业产品或高质量产品，同西方企业竞争的中国公司。它们数量虽小，却在不断增加中。远大空调有限公司就是这样一家中国公司。该公司生产的专业中央空调系统比大部分中央空调系统更节能，但也贵得多。
“However much the U.S. dollar rises, our profits rise the same,” said Wu Zheng, general manager of Broad’s international operations.
“美元升值多少，我们的利润就涨多少，”远大国际公司总经理吴正说。
But for most companies, other issues dwarf the currency. Wages have risen to the point where global manufacturers of low-cost items like shoes and clothing are shifting work outside China. Economic growth is slowing. Global trade has weakened. And in many industries, like window-mounted air-conditioners, a surplus of Chinese factories has undermined pricing and wiped out profits.
但对大部分企业来说，其他问题盖过了人民币问题。工资水平上涨，导致服装和鞋履等低成本物品的跨国制造商正在把生产从中国转移出去。经济增长放缓。国际贸易疲软。并且在很多行业，比如窗式空调行业，中国工厂的过量影响了定价，吞噬了利润。
Chigo — which is headquartered in Foshan, on the outskirts of the city of Guangzhou — lost money from operations in 2014 and 2015. In the first half of last year, Chigo eked out a tiny profit as the renminbi began to tumble. It was briefly able to capture some gains from the currency’s depreciation before foreign retailers demanded price discounts.
总部设在广州附近佛山的志高空调，2014年和2015年连续亏损。去年上半年，随着人民币开始暴跌，志高勉强小幅盈利。在外国零售商提出折扣要求之前，它能在短时间内从人民币的贬值中获得一些好处。
Chigo sells air-conditioners in 180 countries, including outlets in the United States like Menards, a Midwest chain of home-improvement centers.
志高的空调在180个国家有售，包括美国的卖场，如中西部的家装连锁梅纳兹(Menards)。
Three years ago, Chigo experimented with its own shift overseas. With wages rising at home, it chose two countries with even lower wages as well as steep barriers to imports: Nigeria and India.
三年前，志高尝试向国外转移。鉴于国内工资水平上涨，志高选择了两个工资水平更低且进口壁垒颇高的国家：尼日利亚和印度。
Chigo found that in both countries, worker productivity was much lower while government corruption was a problem. In Africa, security was also an issue. A car carrying Chigo sales managers in Ghana was approached in broad daylight by two armed robbers who demanded the managers’ wallets and pistol-whipped their driver. Now its Indian and Nigerian operations have nearly shut down.
志高在这两个国家发现，工人的生产效率要低很多，同时政府腐败也是一个问题。在非洲，还有安全问题。在加纳，曾有两名武装劫匪在光天化日之下走到志高的销售经理们乘坐的车前，要求他们交出钱包，还用手枪柄打了司机。现在，志高在印度和尼日利亚的工厂几乎都停工了。
“In China, companies feel a sense of safety, which is already a huge support” for business, said Jackie Cheng, the vice president of Chigo and general manager for its overseas marketing. China’s high-speed rail network and its world-class network of new expressways also make it easy to do business, he added.
“在中国，公司有安全感，这已经是对生意的大力支持了，”志高副总裁、海外营销本部总经理成剑说。他接着表示，中国的高铁网络和世界级的新高速公路网络也让做生意变得容易。
Persuading Chinese managers to live overseas is also difficult, Chigo found. “That’s serious,” Mr. Cheng said. “We can’t get used to the food outside, and many Chinese can’t really speak English.”
志高发现，说服中国管理人员在国外生活也很难。“这个问题很严重，”成剑说。“我们不习惯国外的饮食，很多中国人真的不会说英语。”
The factory in Foshan ran only four days a week late last year because of weak orders and overcapacity in the Chinese air-conditioning manufacturing sector. In interviews, some Chigo workers expressed irritation that this meant they earned less money.
去年年底，因为订单少和中国空调制造业产能过剩，佛山的工厂一周只生产四天。在采访中，志高的一些工人表示了恼火，因为这意味着他们挣的钱少了。
But Mr. Cheng said that the company’s sprawling, 23-year-old factory had become busier in recent weeks as orders have risen. He attributed this mainly to an acceleration in the American and Chinese economies but also to the fall of the renminbi, which makes air-conditioners slightly cheaper and more affordable around the world and results in slightly greater demand.
但成剑说，最近几周，随着订单增加，该公司规模庞大且已有23年历史的工厂已经忙起来了。他把这种情况主要归因于美国和中国经济加速，同时也有人民币贬值的原因。后者让空调在全世界变得稍微便宜一些，更实惠，导致需求小幅增加。
Yet if the renminbi weakens further this year, as many economists expect, Mr. Cheng expects further demands from overseas retailers for discounts, coupled with threats to move orders to other Chinese air-conditioning manufacturers if Chigo does not comply. Frowning, he added, “Our clients have already told me, ‘The renminbi will reach 7.1. Please reduce your prices.’”
但如果人民币今年像很多经济专家预计的那样进一步贬值，成剑估计海外零售商会进一步提出折扣要求，威胁如果志高不照办，它们就把订单交给其他中国空调制造商。他皱着眉补充说，“我们的客户已经和我说了，‘人民币汇率会跌到7.1。请降价吧。’”
