美联储对何时开始缩表意见不一
美联储(Fed)的数名政策制定者本来有意在上月宣布开始“解除”金融危机中出台的经济刺激计划的时间，但倾向于继续等待的人更多。
Minutes of the Fed’s July rate-setting meeting revealed differences of opinion on when to begin the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet, together with growing concern among some policymakers over low inflation, which bolsters the case against quick tightening.
美联储7月议息会议纪要表明，政策制定者对于何时开始收缩美联储资产负债表存在意见分歧，同时部分政策制定者对通胀偏低感到更加担心了，这让不宜迅速收紧货币政策的理由更加充分了。
Fed chair Janet Yellen has spent the year preparing for the landmark moment when the Fed puts its quantitative easing programme into reverse and the minutes said “several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the [unwind] program at the current meeting”.
美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)今年以来一直在准备迎接将量化宽松计划逆转的里程碑时刻。会议纪要上写道：“数名与会者已准备好在本次会议上宣布(缩表)计划的起始日期。”
Any such announcement could have jolted markets as investors have been betting that the process could begin as soon as September.
假如美联储在会议结束后宣布了这样的消息，很可能使金融市场受到震动，因为投资者一直猜测美联储会从9月开始缩表。
In the end, however, “most [policymakers] preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets”, according to the record of the July 25-26 meeting.
不过，7月25-26日会议的纪要显示，最后“多数(政策制定者)更倾向于推迟到下次会议再做出这个决定，同时收集更多关于经济前景和可能影响金融市场的动向的信息”。
The Fed stuck to its previous language in saying that policymakers “generally agreed” that implementation of the balance sheet unwind should begin “relatively soon”, barring adverse developments in the economy or financial markets.
美联储沿用之前的说法，即政策制定者“普遍认为”应该“相对较快地”开始缩表，除非经济或金融市场出现不利发展。
The minutes also pointed to rising concern about “softness” in inflation among some policymakers, who argued it meant the Fed should not rush into its next interest rate increase following two already this year.
会议纪要还指出，部分政策制定者越来越担心通胀“疲软”，他们认为这意味着美联储在今年两次加息后不应该仓促进行下一次加息。
The minutes said “some participants . . . observed that the [monetary policy] committee could afford to be patient under current circumstances in deciding when to increase the federal funds rate further and argued against additional adjustments until incoming information confirmed that the recent low readings on inflation were not likely to persist”.
会议纪要中写道：“部分与会者……评论说，(货币政策)委员会在当前环境下等得起，可以在决定何时进一步上调联邦基金利率这件事上保持耐心。他们认为，在新的信息证实近期的低通胀读数不可能持续之前，不应进一步调整利率。”
Others, however, took an opposing view, cautioning that “a delay in gradually removing policy accommodation could result in an overshooting of the committee’s inflation objective that would likely be costly to reverse”.
然而，其他人则持相反观点，他们警告称，“推迟逐步消除政策宽松度的步伐，可能导致通胀水平超过委员会的目标值，这可能需要付出很大代价才能逆转”。
The Fed scooped up trillions of dollars of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities during the crisis and has been reinvesting the proceeds of securities as they mature, maintaining its balance sheet at about $4.5tn. Unwinding its balance sheet would entail ceasing reinvesting the proceeds of securities as they mature.
在金融危机期间，美联储购买了数万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并且在这些证券到期后将收益用于再投资，使其资产负债表规模维持在约4.5万亿美元的水平。缩减资产负债表意味着要在证券到期后停止把收益用于再投资。
Fresh domestic political turmoil on Wednesday, coupled with relatively dovish Fed minutes sent US bond yields and the dollar sharply lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond – which moves inversely to price – fell 5.3 basis points to 2.22 per cent on the low inflation concerns expressed by some Fed members.
美国国内周三发生新的政治动荡，加上美联储会议纪要偏于鸽派立场，使得美国债券收益率和美元汇率大幅下跌。由于部分美联储官员对低通胀表示担忧，基准10年期美国国债收益率(与价格走向相反)下跌5.3个基点，至2.22%。
