误判可能导致朝鲜半岛开战

The great wars of the 20th century were often preceded by a catastrophic miscalculation. The Germans failed to anticipate that Britain would fight over Belgium in 1914. Stalin failed to anticipate Hitler’s invasion of Russia. Japan and America repeatedly misunderstood each other’s motives and reactions in the run-up to Pearl Harbor. In 1950, the US failed to anticipate that China would enter the Korean war.

20世纪的重大战争在爆发之前通常都出现过灾难性的误判。德国人未能预测到英国会在1914年因比利时加入大战。斯大林(Stalin)未能预料到希特勒(Hitler)会入侵苏联。日本和美国在珍珠港事件之前曾多次误会对方的动机和反应。1950年，美国未能料到中国会参加朝鲜战争。

A similar threat — that miscalculation could lead to war — hangs over the Korean peninsula today. The two key leaders, Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Donald Trump of the US, are unpredictable. The dangers that they will miscalculate each other’s actions, with catastrophic consequences, are real.

类似的威胁如今也萦绕着朝鲜半岛，这个威胁就是误判可能导致战争。两位关键领导人——朝鲜的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)和美国的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)——都是不可预测的。他们会误判对方的行动从而导致灾难性后果的危险，是切实存在的。

North Korea is such a closed society that even academic specialists struggle to interpret its behaviour. The mainstream view is that Mr Kim’s pursuit of advanced nuclear weapons is motivated by a search for security. The North Korean leader has seen what happened to other dictators who failed to acquire these weapons — Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammer Gaddafi of Libya — and concluded that only nukes can guarantee his survival.

朝鲜是一个十分封闭的社会，甚至连学术专家都难以解读它的行为。主流观点认为，金正恩坚持不懈发展先进核武器是为了寻求安全感。这位朝鲜领导人目睹了其他未能获得核武器的独裁者的命运，例如伊拉克的萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)和利比亚的穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)，他认为只有核武器才能保证他的生存。

This view is relatively reassuring because it suggests that Mr Kim is unlikely to use nuclear weapons first. But there are aspects of the North Korean leader’s behaviour that may not fit this relatively comforting picture. If deterrence is his only concern, why is Mr Kim apparently going out of his way to provoke the US, Japan, even China?

这种观点相对让人放心，因为这表明，金正恩不太可能首先动用核武器。但金正恩的行为有着可能与这种相对令人安心的画面不太相符的特点。如果他关心的只有威慑，那么他为何还在明显故意挑衅美国、日本甚至中国呢?

This week, North Korea staged its largest-ever nuclear test. Last week, it sent a ballistic missile over Japan. It may be that these actions are necessary steps on the way to achieving the ultimate form of deterrence: a nuclear missile that could hit the US. But the rapid succession of nuclear provocations also makes it much more likely that the Americans will conclude that Mr Kim really is an irrational actor, the proverbial “madman with nukes”. That, in turn, makes it easier to make the case inside the White House for a pre-emptive strike.

本周，朝鲜展开了有史以来规模最大的核试验。上周，朝鲜发射的弹道导弹飞越日本上空。或许这些行动是实现最终威慑形式(能够打击美国的核导弹)的必要步骤。但一次紧接一次的核挑衅还更有可能让美国人认为，金正恩真的是一个不理性的人，即俗话说的“拥有核武器的疯子”。这进而更容易让美国政府觉得有理由发动先发制人的打击。

The risk that Mr Kim is miscalculating, by potentially provoking an American attack, is raised by the unpredictability of Mr Trump. He has vowed that North Korea will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons that can threaten the US. He has also repeatedly suggested that he is prepared to stage a pre-emptive military strike, at one point threatening Mr Kim with “fire and fury”. But the US president’s efforts to use brinkmanship to force North Korea to back down are undermined by doubts about the credibility of his threats.

特朗普的不可预测性提升了金正恩误判形势、可能招致美国打击的风险。特朗普发誓说，不会允许朝鲜发展出能够威胁美国的核武器。他还多次表示，他愿意发动先发制人的军事打击，还一度威胁要让金正恩见识“怒与火”。但外界对特朗普威胁的可信度的质疑，减损了这位美国总统利用边缘政策迫使朝鲜后退的努力的作用。

Steve Bannon, formerly the president’s chief strategist, has stated that the US cannot attack North Korea because of the risk of massive retaliation against South Korea that could kill millions.

前白宫首席战略师史蒂夫•班农(Steve Bannon)表示，美国不能打击朝鲜，因为这可能导致韩国遭到可能导致无数人死亡的大规模报复。

Mr Trump’s reaction to the latest and most powerful North Korean nuclear test has increased the dangerous confusion about US policy. Rather than stressing American unity with South Korea, the president chose to criticise Seoul for its “appeasement” of Pyongyang. This, combined with the news that Mr Trump is actively considering scrapping the US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, risks encouraging North Korea to believe its nuclear provocations are working, by splitting the alliance between Seoul and Washington.

特朗普对朝鲜这次最新、而且威力最大的核试验的反应，加剧了外界对美国政策的困惑，这是危险的。特朗普没有强调美国与韩国的团结，而是选择批评韩国“姑息”朝鲜。再加上特朗普正积极考虑退出美韩自由贸易协定(US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement)的消息，这可能会促使朝鲜认为其核挑衅正在发挥作用——离间了美韩同盟。

The president has also damaged US credibility, at a crucial moment, by tweeting that America is considering “stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea”. Read literally, this would involve ending trade between the US and China, the two largest economies in the world; an action that would throw the global economy into chaos. Mr Trump’s threat underlines his naivety about both trade and international relations. It also suggests the president remains buffeted by competing instincts, with his instinctive protectionism potentially overriding his desire to combat the North Korean nuclear threat.

特朗普还在关键时刻破坏了美国的可信度，他在Twitter上称，美国正在考虑“停止与任何跟朝鲜做生意的国家的一切贸易往来”。从字面上看，这将导致美中这两个世界最大经济体之间贸易的终止;此举将令全球经济陷入混乱。特朗普发出的威胁表明了他对贸易和国际关系的认识十分幼稚。这一威胁还表明他仍受困于相互竞争的两种本能，其天生的保护主义倾向可能压倒抗击朝鲜核威胁的意愿。

The confusing signals from the White House increase the dangers of miscalculation, not just in Pyongyang, but in Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo. With the North Korean threat mounting, the normal reaction for South Korea would be to move in lockstep with its American protector. But if the government of Moon Jae-in concludes the biggest danger is not that North Korea will attack but that Mr Trump will stage a pre-emptive strike, then the South’s incentives change. At that point, it might become rational to break publicly with Washington.

白宫发出的混乱信号增加了误判的危险，不仅是在平壤，在首尔、北京和东京亦然。随着朝鲜威胁与日俱增，韩国的正常反应是与其保护国美国保持一致步调。但如果文在寅政府认为，最大的危险不是朝鲜发动袭击，而是特朗普发动先发制人的打击，那么韩国的行为动机就会发生变化。届时，首尔与华盛顿公开决裂或许会成为合理选择。

The Chinese government faces a similarly complex set of calculations. Mr Trump has repeatedly tried to persuade Beijing to exert more economic pressure on North Korea, threatening that the US will take unilateral military action if China fails to force Mr Kim into line. China has sought to placate Mr Trump by toughening sanctions on Pyongyang. But the Chinese also have to consider how Mr Kim might react if he is forced into a corner. The risk that the North Korean leader will use nuclear weapons first will surely rise if he is faced with the prospect of the collapse of his own regime — and his own certain death.

中国政府也面临着同样复杂的一系列计算。特朗普多次试图说服北京方面向朝鲜施加更大的经济压力，并威胁称，如果中国不能迫使金正恩弃核，美国将采取单方面军事行动。中国一直试图通过加强对朝鲜的制裁来安抚特朗普。但中国也不得不考虑，如果被逼入绝境，金正恩可能做出怎样的反应。如果金正恩面临政权垮台(而且自己性命不保)的可能性，这位朝鲜领导人首先使用核武器的风险肯定会上升。

These risks would be difficult to manage even with rational, experienced leaders in power. But the key decision makers are a 71-year-old businessman with a volcanic temper and no relevant experience, and a 33-year-old dictator, surrounded by frightened sycophants.

即便掌权的是理性、经验丰富的领导人，这些风险都将很难应对。但如今，关键的决策者是一位脾气火爆、没有相关经验的71岁商人，外加一位身边围绕着满心恐惧的马屁精的33岁的独裁者。