熊猫债券吃掉了点心债券？
熊猫不会冬眠，但点心债券市场就可能冬眠。
Bankers’ penchant for catchy names for Asian bonds, from pandas and dim sum to kangas and masala, can invite some strained metaphors.
银行家喜欢为亚洲债券起上各种好记的名字，从熊猫和点心到袋鼠(kangas)和马萨拉(masala)，这种嗜好可能导致一些不那么恰当的比喻。
Untangling this one into a more popular form produces this question: is China’s fast-growing panda bond market eating its counterpart, and Hong Kong delicacy, for breakfast?
比如：中国内地快速增长的熊猫债券市场是不是正在将精致小巧的香港点心债券市场当早餐吃?
The rapid opening up of China’s enormous onshore bond markets has put the once-vibrant dim sum market — renminbi-denominated bonds sold in Hong Kong — into the shade.
中国迅速开放规模庞大的在岸债券市场，让一度生气勃勃的点心债券市场黯然失色——点心债券是指在香港发行的人民币计价债券。
Already this year, $5.6bn of pandas have been sold, more than three times the rate of dim sum bond issuance.
今年已经有56亿美元的熊猫债券发行，是点心债券发行量的三倍多。
The only significant borrower via the dim sum market this year has been the Chinese government, and the bulk of the issuance has been in the form of certificates of deposit sold by banks. HSBC recently slashed its predictions for dim sum issuance this year by at least a third, to between Rmb145bn and Rmb155bn.
今年只有中国政府通过点心债券市场大规模举债，而一大部分点心债券发行是以银行发行的存款证形式进行的。汇丰(HSBC)最近将今年的点心债券发行量预测削减了至少三分之一，预计发行量在1450亿元人民币至1550亿元人民币之间。
The situation also partly reflects Bond Connect, a new trading link between Hong Kong and the mainland markets which, since July, allows international investors to trade onshore bonds more easily.
这种状况也部分归咎于“债券通”(Bond Connect)。“债券通”是一种新的香港和内地市场债券交易互联互通机制，它自今年7月以来让国际投资者能够更容易交易内地债券。
Recently, Ford’s China operations sold Rmb3.5bn ($536m) in panda bonds backed by car finance loans through the new pipeline.
最近，福特汽车金融(中国)有限公司通过这一新渠道发行了35亿元人民币(合5.36亿美元)由汽车贷款支持的熊猫债券。
That comes after Hungary became the latest country to support the panda market, selling a Rmb1bn three-year bond in July.
在此之前，匈牙利成为支持熊猫债券市场的最新国家，它在今年7月发售了10亿元人民币的三年期债券。
It also became the first to have borrowed in renminbi onshore as well as offshore, adding to the impression that a dim sum famine was only worsening.
它也是第一个在离岸和在岸市场都发行了以人民币计价债券的国家，这更加让人觉得，点心债券的发行只会越来越少。
Yet bankers remain reluctant to endorse a full panda-ate-the-dim-sum view, pointing instead to factors behind the Hong Kong market’s decline other than simply the growing attraction of mainland opportunities. That could mean that the dim sum market is in a form of hibernation not terminal decline.
然而，银行家们依然不愿认可“熊猫吃掉点心”的观点，而是指出除了内地机遇越来越具吸引力以外，香港市场低迷背后的其他因素。这可能意味着点心债券市场进入了某种冬眠，而非无可挽回的没落。
“Short term, the offshore market may be struggling, but long term there are advantages to having both onshore and offshore renminbi bond markets,” said Linan Liu, Greater China macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)大中华区宏观策略师刘立男表示：“短期而言，离岸市场可能萎靡不振，但从长期来说，同时拥有在岸和离岸人民币债券市场是有利的。”
“For example, the onshore panda market is bigger but the offshore dim sum market is aligned legally to other investment centres, rating agencies are active and there’s established settlement and payment standards.”
“例如，在岸熊猫债券市场规模更大，但离岸点心市场在法律上与其他投资中心一致，评级机构活跃，而且还有成熟的结算和支付标准。”
Arguably the biggest factor in the dim sum market’s decline has been not Beijing’s Panda bond push, but its crackdown on capital outflows.
可以说，点心债券市场低迷的最大原因不是中国政府对熊猫债券的推动，而是其对资本外流的打击。
Amid the country’s efforts to stop renminbi being exchanged for dollars, it also stopped banks shifting renminbi across the border between their units and at one point, restricted international payments in its local currency.
中国政府在努力阻止人们将人民币换成美元的同时，也阻止银行各机构间跨境转移人民币，一度还限制用人民币进行国际支付。
The result has been a sharp fall in the amount of renminbi available offshore to invest in products such as bonds. While renminbi deposits in Hong Kong, by far the biggest centre, have stabilised at about Rmb520bn, they are still only about half their 2014 peak levels.
结果是离岸可投资于债券等产品的人民币数量急剧下降。尽管香港人民币存款稳定在5200亿元人民币左右，但仍然只有2014年峰值的约一半。香港是遥遥领先的最大人民币离岸中心。
Shallower liquidity has raised renminbi borrowing costs in Hong Kong. Beijing’s sale of Rmb7bn in three- and five-year notes in June was its smallest in five years — and also its most expensive.
流动性不足提升了香港的人民币借款成本。中国政府今年6月在香港发行了共70亿元人民币的3年期和5年期债券，这是5年来规模最小的，也是成本最高的。
The notes carried coupons of 3.99 per cent and 4.1 per cent, respectively, compared with onshore borrowing costs of 3.59 per cent and 3.63 per cent.
两种期限的利率分别是3.99%和4.1%，而在岸借债成本分别是3.59%和3.63%。
But bankers also point to the recent stabilisation of the renminbi, both onshore and off, to suggest that the groundwork is being laid for a dim sum revival.
但银行家也指出，人民币在岸和离岸汇率最近企稳，为点心债券复苏奠定了基础。
Dollar weakness has pushed the Chinese currency to its strongest levels in a year. Analysts have revised forecasts for a sharp weakening by the end of the year to predict that the currency will remain roughly flat, a sharp contrast following two years of depreciation fears and volatility.
美元疲弱推动人民币汇率升至一年来的最高水平。分析师修正了人民币到今年年底急剧贬值的预测，转而预测人民币汇率将会基本持平，这与两年来担忧贬值和波动的观点形成鲜明对比。
“Renminbi had been crazy and that scared a lot of people,” said one banker. “If it stays like this, like now, for long enough it will change sentiment.”
一位银行家表示：“人民币一直很疯狂，这让许多人感到害怕。如果它就像现在这样保持足够长时间的稳定，那就会改变情绪。”
Borrowers’ access to the panda market is not straightforward either. Companies can only present accounts under either Chinese, Hong Kong or EU accounting standards — US rules are not accepted.
借款者进入熊猫市场并不简单。公司只能根据中国内地、香港或者欧盟会计准则提供账目——不接受美国会计准则。
China has not made it clear either whether funds raised can be moved offshore, meaning that borrowers will need a local use for the funds. And approval for panda issues is also still granted on a case-by-case basis.
中国也没有明确表示筹集的资金能否被转移到境外，这意味着借款者将需要在中国内地使用这些资金。而且熊猫债券发行的批准仍然需要“一事一议”。
“For as long as there are two markets, issuers will pick and choose based on their attractiveness,” said Justin Chan, co-head of Asia-Pacific markets at HSBC.
汇丰亚太市场联席主管陈绍宗(Justin Chan)表示：“只要存在两个市场，发行者就会基于它们的吸引力进行挑选。”
“Some multinationals will be thinking about establishing an early panda presence for strategic reasons. But for many, it will be about which one is cheaper and also which is easier in terms of administration and process.”
“一些跨国公司将会出于战略原因考虑尽早进入熊猫债券市场，但对许多公司来说，考虑的是哪一个成本更低，以及哪一个在管理和程序方面更便利。”
