特朗普获得重塑美联储的大好机会
一个重塑美国央行的绝佳机会摆在了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的、面前。美联储(Fed)副主席斯坦利•费希尔(Stanley Fischer)决定在其任期结束前8个月辞去其在美联储权力强大的理事会中的职务，这将使美国总统得以更早地在美联储打上他的印记。
The Fed vice-chair’s departure next month opens a fourth vacancy on the board of governors, depending on how soon incoming governor Randal Quarles can clinch confirmation in the Senate. On top of that, Janet Yellen may well fail to win a second term as Fed chair when her current stint expires in February.
费希尔下月离开美联储之际，美联储理事会将出现第4个职位空缺，具体情况还要取决于即将进入理事会的兰德尔•夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)的提名能够多快得到参议院确认。此外，美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的任期将在明年2月结束，她可能无法获得连任。
By early next year there may be only two governors left who can count their service at the Fed in years rather than weeks or months. Sarah Binder of George Washington University says in modern times no president has had more potential Fed board positions to fill at one time.
到明年初，美联储理事会中可能只有两位理事能够以年(而不是周或者月)为单位来计算他们余下的任期。乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)的萨拉•宾德(Sarah Binder)表示，在当代，还没有哪位总统有机会一次填补这么多美联储理事会席位空缺。
The question is how Mr Trump wants to exploit his big moment to reshape the bank. Those in the process are finding his intentions characteristically unpredictable, and sluggish progress on White House appointments risks leaving the Fed thinly staffed for some time, to the dismay of former Fed officials.
问题在于特朗普想要如何利用他的重大机会来重塑美国的央行。参与这一进程的人发现特朗普的意图一如既往不可预测，使美联储的前官员感到不安的是，白宫任命流程的缓慢有可能使美联储在一段时间内人员不足。
“There are just huge question marks for the future of the Fed right now — we don’t have a good sense of where Trump is headed,” said Ms Binder. “The White House appointments process is achingly slow, as is the Senate confirmation process.”
“现在，巨大的问号打在美联储的前景之上——我们弄不清特朗普的前进方向，”宾德说，“白宫任命流程极为缓慢，参议院确认提名的流程同样如此。”
Gary Cohn, who emerged as a frontrunner to be the next Fed chair during the summer, has more recently soured his prospects by publicly attacking Mr Trump’s response to the Charlottesville violence in the pages of the Financial Times.
今年夏天，加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)一度是下一任美联储主席的热门人选，但最近这一前景变得暗淡，原因是他在英国《金融时报》上公开批评特朗普对夏洛茨威尔(Charlottesville)暴力事件的回应。
At the margin, Mr Cohn’s reduced standing could boost Ms Yellen’s chances of retaining the position of chair. But while the president admires her willingness to pursue a low interest rate policy, the administration’s appetite for slacker financial regulation may prove equally pressing, while Mr Cohn could yet restore his standing with the president with a big win on tax reform.
此消彼长，科恩失宠或许能提高耶伦保住美联储主席之位的机会。但尽管特朗普总统欣赏耶伦推行低息政策的意愿，特朗普政府对放松金融监管的渴望可能同样迫切，而科恩也可能通过在税改上取得一场大胜来重新赢得特朗普的欢心。
Ms Yellen has made clear her opposition to anything other than incremental adjustments to financial regulation; her recent comment to the Senate Banking Committee that some Treasury proposals would increase the risk of a new crisis were poorly received.
耶伦明确表示，除非是逐步调整金融监管，否则她一概反对;她最近对参议院银行业委员会(Senate banking committee)提出，美国财政部的一些提案可能会加大爆发一场新危机的风险，但并未得到多少理会。
Among the other key candidates for chair is Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who enjoys good White House connections and who has been vigorously campaigning for the job. In July, he co-wrote a markedly Trump-friendly paper with fellow Stanford professor John Taylor and Glenn Hubbard of Columbia Business School, who, like Mr Warsh, are potential Fed chairs.
其他主要的美联储主席候选人还包括前美联储理事凯文•沃什(Kevin Warsh)，沃什与白宫的关系不错，同时也一直在积极争取这个职位。今年7月，他与斯坦福大学(Stanford)教授约翰•泰勒(John Taylor)及哥伦比亚商学院(Columbia Business School)的格伦•哈伯德(Glenn Hubbard)，联合撰写了一篇引人注目的示好特朗普的文章，与沃伦一样，泰勒和哈伯德也都有望出任美联储主席。
They enthusiastically endorsed the president’s growth goals — in contrast to Ms Yellen, who has publicly doubted the administration’s 3 per cent growth target. Other possible candidates include Larry Lindsey, a former governor, and current Fed governor Jay Powell.
他们热烈拥护总统提出的经济增长目标——这与耶伦相反，耶伦曾公开质疑特朗普政府提出的3%的增长目标。其他可能出任美联储主席的人选还有前美联储理事拉里•林塞(Larry Lindsey)，以及现任美联储理事杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)。
Jon Faust, who was an adviser to Ms Yellen at the Fed and is now at Johns Hopkins University, does not believe the drafters of the Fed’s legislation envisaged a president appointing such a large chunk of the Board of Governors all at once. He has concerns about who will emerge from the White House pipeline. “One president doing five [appointments] at once is not good thing — and with this president is more worrisome,” he said.
现任约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)教授的乔恩•福斯特(Jon Faust)，曾在美联储担任耶伦的顾问，他认为美联储法案的起草者们不曾设想一位总统能一次性任命这么多位理事。对于白宫准备任命谁，他忧心忡忡。他说：“一个总统一次作出五个任命并非一件好事——而且现在这位总统更令人担忧。”
That said, Mr Quarles, whose candidacy was being considered on the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, has won praise from the banking world as a highly experienced hand, even if Democrats expressed dismay over his willingness to loosen post-crisis regulation. Marvin Goodfriend, a former Richmond Fed economist, is another likely Trump appointee to the board, and he enjoys the respect of monetary economists.
尽管如此，9月7日参议院银行业委员会已经开始考虑夸尔斯的理事候选人资格，尽管民主党对夸尔斯赞成放松危机后实施的监管表示失望，但作为一位经验丰富的老手，夸尔斯还是赢得了银行界的好评。马尔文•古德弗兰德(Marvin Goodfriend)是另一位特朗普可能会任命的理事，古德弗兰德曾是里士满联储银行(Richmond Fed)的经济学家，深受货币经济学家尊敬。
Both of those individuals have advocated the use of stricter rules governing monetary policy, while Mr Warsh has advocated a smaller footprint for the central bank. None represents a radical break from monetary policy orthodoxy, however.
这两名候选人都主张采用更加严格的规则来管理货币政策，而沃什提倡缩小美联储的影响力。然而，他们谁也没有彻底突破正统的货币政策。
“They are in the responsible mainstream of Republican thought on these issues,” said Ted Truman, a former Fed official who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“他们都代表了共和党在这些问题上的主流思想，”前美联储官员泰德•杜鲁门(Ted Truman)说，杜鲁门现在是彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的非常驻高级研究员。
The bigger problem, he argues, is there are “so many holes” on the board of an institution with broad powers over markets and the US and world economies — creating uncertain conditions in global markets. “You want a firm hand at the tiller, and that argues for getting on with some other appointments and resolving the chairmanship by the middle of November,” he said.
他认为更大的问题在于，一个对市场、对美国和世界经济拥有广泛影响力的机构，其理事会居然会“出现这么多职位空缺”——由此在全球市场上造成诸多不确定条件。他说：“人们需要一个坚定的舵手，因此需要在11月中旬之前，继续任命其他理事并确定主席人选。”
Mr Trump’s record of hesitation and false starts on appointments means such a smooth handover of power at the Fed cannot be guaranteed.
特朗普过往的犹豫不决，以及在任命方面的糟糕开端，意味着美联储权力的顺利交接无法得到保证。
