安倍提前大选决定可能失算

The Japanese general election of 2017 got interesting exactly three-and-a-half hours before prime minister Shinzo Abe called it.

2017年日本大选在安倍晋三首相宣布举行提前选举的三个半小时之前变得有意思。

With a 36-point lead in the opinion polls, and the opposition Democratic party in utter disarray, Mr Abe has strong reasons for an early ballot. But if he thought everything would go his way then Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s press conference — timed to upstage the prime minister’s election launch — will have disabused him.

凭借民意调查中的36点领先优势，同时反对党民进党(Democratic Party)深陷混乱，安倍晋三有很好的理由提前举行大选。但是，如果他认为事情将一帆风顺，那么东京都知事小池百合子的记者会——在时间上精心安排，以夺走首相宣布选举的风头——将让他失望。

Word was that Ms Koike would announce the name of a baby panda born in Tokyo’s Ueno zoo (a bigger news story for much of Japan’s media than the general election). “There are lots of announcements of names today,” opened Ms Koike. Then rather than name the panda, she named her new “Party of Hope”, and declared herself its leader.

此前透露的风声称，小池百合子将宣布在东京上野动物园刚出生的大熊猫宝宝的名字(对日本很大一部分媒体来说，这是比大选更加重大的新闻)。小池百合子在开场白中说，“今天有很多名字要公诸于众”。接着，她没有为熊猫命名，而是把她创立的新政党命名为“希望之党”，并宣告自己出任党魁。

The playful theatre was a reminder that Mr Abe is not the most talented or charismatic politician in Japan. Ms Koike has charisma in abundance. Her new party shows the risks in an election Mr Abe has called more because the opposition is weak than for any pressing reason of policy.

这一幕在让人耳目一新的同时也提醒人们，安倍晋三并不是日本最有天赋或最有政治魅力的政治人物。小池百合子有大把政治魅力。她的新政党显示了安倍决定提前大选的风险;安倍作出这个决定在更大程度上是由于反对党处于弱势，而不是出于任何紧迫的政策原因。

Mr Abe still holds the whip hand. His ruling Liberal Democratic party is polling at 44 per cent, it has a formidable electoral machine, the economy is doing well and Japan’s public appreciate the five years of political stability the prime minister has brought.

安倍仍处于支配地位。他所属的执政的自民党(LDP)在民调中获得44%的支持率，该党拥有令人敬畏的选举机器，日本经济运行良好，而日本公众赞赏现任首相带来的五年政治稳定。

But he faces a considerable challenge in framing this election to his advantage. Mr Abe insisted a change of tax plans required a new mandate and that democratic elections are a fine way to spite North Korea.

但在如何以有利于自己的方式框定这场选举的问题上，安倍面临相当大的挑战。他坚称税收计划的改变要求他征求新的民意授权，而且民主选举是同仇敌忾回应朝鲜的好办法。

The platform is basically socialist, however — tax more to spend more — and thus at odds with his party’s conservative ideology and its business base. Nor does it offer much grand purpose, unlike Mr Abe’s past appeals to revive Japan’s economy and national stature. Mr Abe is therefore in danger from anybody who is a better populist than him.

然而，安倍的竞选纲领基本上是社会主义的：增税以便增加支出，这与自民党的保守意识形态和商界支持根基格格不入。这套纲领也没有提供什么宏大目的，与安倍以往提出重振日本经济和国家地位的诉求不同。因此，如果安倍遇到一个比他更高超的民粹主义者，他有可能陷入危险境地。

The Democratic party is hopeless at populism, and in recent years, not much good at politics either. Ms Koike, however, is another matter. The substantive political differences between the Tokyo governor and the prime minister are tiny — they are both conservative nationalists — but whereas Mr Abe is respected rather than loved, Ms Koike has a base of genuine fans.

民粹主义是民进党的弱项，近年该党在政治上也拿不出什么作为。然而小池百合子是另一回事。东京都知事与首相之间的实质性政治差异很小——两人都是立场保守的民族主义者——但是安倍受人尊敬而非爱戴，而小池百合子拥有真正的粉丝根基。

With little else to interest them, Japan’s media will happily turn the election into a Koike versus Abe showdown, and the large pool of undecided voters gives the Obama-flavoured Party of Hope room to grow. It will stand a limited number of candidates and they may struggle to get traction outside of the Tokyo area. But even modest losses to Ms Koike will leave Mr Abe weakened.

在没有其它什么事引发兴趣的情况下，日本媒体将津津乐道地把这场选举描述为小池与安倍之间的对决，而大量拿不定主意怎么投票的选民将给带有奥巴马味道的“希望之党”提供异军突起的空间。该党投入竞选的候选人数量将是有限的，而且在东京以外地区可能难以赢得人气。但是，即使是被小池夺走少量席位，也将削弱安倍的地位。

The panda will be called Shan-Shan, Ms Koike eventually said, an “extremely cute name evoking fragrance”. If Ms Koike pulls it off, Shan-Shan will evoke ruthless and effective politicking just as well.

小池百合子最后说，上野动物园大熊猫宝宝的名字已定为“香香”，并称这是一个“非常可爱的名字，让人想起香味”。如果小池百合子竞选得手，“香香”这个名字也将令人联想到无情和有效的政治操作。