哪些行业会在中美贸易战中受到冲击？
对制造发光二极管(LED)的马来西亚工厂来说，这是一个机会。对美国的船用舷外发动机制造商来说，这是一个威胁。对于平板电视的主要销售商来说，就是个大麻烦了。
The emerging trade war between the United States and China has prompted predictions of severe economic and geopolitical disruption. But for any given industry, the impact of tariffs depends on the microeconomics of its products: How much does demand change when its prices rise? Are substitutes readily available? How much extra productive capacity is there around the world, and how long would it take to get new manufacturing facilities up and running?
正在成形的美中贸易战使人猜测经济和地缘政治将受严重干扰。但对任何一个特定行业来说，关税的影响取决于其产品的微观经济学：产品价格上升会使需求产生多大变化?是否已有现成替代品?全世界还有多少额外生产力，以及在新的生产设施建成并投入使用需花费多长时间?
“How this will play out is idiosyncratic to any given product and unique to each supply chain,” said Daniel Rosen, partner at the economic research firm Rhodium Group. “Nobody can honestly claim high confidence that they understand what the overall impact will be. You may as well project the weather on a Tuesday afternoon a year from now.”
“结果如何会根据不同产品而异，是不同供应链特有的，”经济研究公司荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)合伙人荣大聂(Daniel H. Rosen)说。“没人能完全自信地宣称自己知道会有什么总体影响。这跟预报一年以后的周二的天气没什么区别。”
The United States imposed its first wave of tariffs over the spring, and each of the 1,102 goods that may be affected will end up with its own list of winners and losers. To see how this may unfold, it’s helpful to examine the different trade patterns for those goods, along with some of the thousands of comment letters that companies and industry groups have submitted to the U.S. Trade Representative. And executives and other experts have their own sense of exactly how supply chains might be rerouted and prices might swing for particular goods.
美国在春季加征了第一轮关税，受影响的1102种商品可能最终还会各有输赢。要了解这将如何发展，可以观察这些商品的不同贸易模式，以及企业和行业组织向美国贸易代表递交的数千封意见函中的一部分。企管及其他专家对于供应链将会如何转向，以及某些产品的价格会如何波动，都有各自的理解。
The lesson that emerges: Be skeptical of predictions of radical disruption to major industries in the near term. For now, companies have options to avoid some of the most severe risks.
从中得到的经验是：对近期主要行业将受根本性干扰的预测保持怀疑。目前，公司仍有办法避免最严重的一些风险。
But the longer the trade dispute lasts, the more products will get pulled into it. And the more the United States finds itself at odds not just with one other major economy but the entire world, the more it makes sense to worry. The workarounds that companies are using so far wouldn’t succeed in an open-ended, indefinite trade war.
但贸易争端持续时间越长，就会有越多的产品被牵扯其中。美国越能意识到自己不仅是与另一个主要经济体发生冲突，而是与整个世界发生冲突时，就越有理由担心。企业目前使用的变通办法，在不确定且无期限的贸易战中是维持不下去的。
In LEDs, a Gap Other Countries Can Fill
LED，他国可以填补的空白
China has the world’s second-largest economy and is a major supplier of many of the products lining store shelves in the United States. The Trump administration’s first round of tariffs is devised to focus on goods for which there are many other suppliers.
中国是世界第二大经济体，并且是美国的商店货架上摆着的许多产品的主要供应商。特朗普政府设计的第一轮关税针对的便是仍有其他许多供应商的商品。
For about half the items, the share of American imports coming from China was less than 10 percent, based on a new analysis of government data on the sources of the affected products conducted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That figure was higher for some of the products that account for the larger share of imports, so China had a 23 percent market share if you use a weighted average. Either way these are not markets where China has a monopoly or anything close to it.
根据彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)对受影响产品来源的政府数据的新分析，对于其中大约半数的产品，美国从中国进口的占比不到10%，在进口产品中占比较大的产品有更高数字。因此如果使用加权平均数，中国所占市场份额则为23%。不论以哪种算法，这些都不是中国垄断或接近垄断的市场。
Consider light-emitting diodes, the tiny part that makes LED light bulbs illuminate and are used in many industrial settings. The United States imported $637 million worth of them from China last year, more than any other country. But that doesn’t mean China is the only supplier. Japan and Malaysia exported an additional $593 million in LEDs in the United States combined.
试想发光二极管，也就是使LED灯泡发光并被用于许多工业环境的微小部件。美国去年从中国进口了价值6.37亿美元的发光二极管，多于其他任何国家。但这并不意味着中国就是唯一供应商。日本和马来西亚总共还向美国额外出口了价值5.93亿美元的该类产品。
So for American companies that import the diodes and incorporate them in their products, such as solar-powered streetlamps, China isn’t the only option. The question is whether other countries not subject to the 25 percent tariff can accommodate a potential surge of demand.
因此，对进口二极管并将其用于太阳能路灯等产品的美国公司而言，中国并非唯一选择。问题在于，没有受制于25%关税的其他国家能否承受需求激增的可能。
In Malaysia, the LED industry senses opportunity.
马来西亚的LED行业看见了机遇。
“The trade war, I would say it will benefit us if it really keeps going in the direction of tariffs,” said Daniel Fong, senior regional manager of Oversea Lighting and Electric, located 40 minutes from Kuala Lumpur. “The U.S. market is cutting off all ties to China, and in that sense we have a bigger opportunity to benefit the U.S. market with Malaysia-made products.”
“我可以说，这场贸易战如果继续往关税方向发展，我们就能从中得益，”距离吉隆坡40分钟车程的海外照明和电力公司(Oversea Lighting and Electric)高级区域经理丹尼尔·方(Daniel Fong)说。“美国市场正在切断与中国的所有联系，从这个意义上说，我们有更大的机会让马来西亚制造的产品在美国市场获益。”
The industry in Malaysia has struggled to make inroads in the American market, in part, said Jamie Fox, a lighting components analyst with IHS Markit, because China subsidizes its LED industry. A crucial machine needed for the manufacture of the diodes can cost $2 million, but regional subsidies in China make them available for half as much, putting competitors outside China at a price disadvantage.
IHS Markit照明元件分析师杰米·福克斯(Jamie Fox)表示，马来西亚的企业一直很难进入美国市场，部分是因为中国在补贴自己的LED产业。一台制造二极管所需的关键机器需要200万美元，但中国的地区性补贴让企业只用一半的钱就能买到，使中国以外的竞争对手处于价格劣势。
If tariffs make Chinese exporters less competitive, the balance may shift. John See, chief executive of QAV Technologies, said his company’s two LED factories in Penang could quickly increase production by 300 to 400 percent, if demand were there. Malaysia, he suggested, might no longer have to play “second fiddle” to China in business with the United States.
如果关税使中国的出口商竞争力下降，这样的平衡可能会发生变化。QAV科技(QAV Technologies)的首席执行官约翰·西(John See)表示，若有需求，他的公司在槟城的两个LED工厂可以迅速增产300%至400%。他认为，马来西亚或许不需在对美贸易中再扮演中国的“二把手”。
A Looming Threat for Boat Makers
造船厂商的威胁迫近
It’s easy for American importers to replace Chinese LED supplies with those made elsewhere because the parts are relatively standard; the issues are mostly price and availability.
美国进口商可以轻易使用别处生产的产品换掉中国的LED供应，因为这些部件相对较为标准，问题主要在于价格和供应。
But other Chinese products covered by tariffs aren’t so easy for their importers to substitute.
但要进口商换掉关税覆盖的其他中国产品，对他们来说并不容易。
Ray Electric Outboards in Cape Coral, Fla., imports its powerheads — the electric motors that turn the propeller for a small boat — from China. Shifting to a different supplier is no small matter.
位于佛罗里达州开普科勒尔的雷伊舷外电动发动机公司(Ray Electric Outboards)的潜水泵——使小型船只螺旋桨转动的电机——便是从中国进口。更换至不同供应商非同小可。
“Have I tried different companies to get a different motor?” said Joy Hurley, business manager at Ray Electric. “Yes, but it’s just not as readily available. There is nothing else that will work in our system.” The company has molds that are already made to fit the company’s current suppliers’ products, and it costs thousands of dollars to change them.
“我试过其他公司的其他发动机吗?”雷伊公司的商务经理乔伊·赫尔利(Joy Hurley)说。“试过，但是没有现成可用的。其他东西在我们系统里都用不了。”该公司的模具是根据它目前供应商的产品制作的，修改模具要花成千上万美元。
“The motors that I have as options in the United States don’t fit in our housing,” Ms. Hurley said. Meanwhile, the company’s profit margins are too thin to absorb the cost of 25 percent tariffs. In the short run, she said, the company will need to raise prices to pass the tax through to customers.
“我在美国可以找到的发动机不适合我们的外壳，”赫尔利说。与此同时，该公司的利润空间非常小，消化不了25%的关税成本。她说，在短期内，公司必须提价，将关税转移给消费者。
The American boating industry has complained of many elements of the tariffs. Mercury Marine, for example, of Fond du Lac, Wis., said in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative that it employs 4,800 American workers, but that the manufacture of 40-to-60-horsepower boat engines in Suzhou, China, is crucial to the enterprise.
美国船舶业对关税的很多内容颇有抱怨。比如，威斯康辛州丰迪拉克的水星船舶(Mercury Marine)在写给美国贸易代表的一封信中说，自己雇佣了4800名美国员工，但中国苏州生产的40至60马力轮船发动机对公司至关重要。
“It’s very difficult for some of these companies to absorb these costs entirely,” said Nicole Vasilaros, senior vice president at the National Marine Manufacturers Association. Motors are one of 300 frequently used boat parts facing the tariff, she said, which cumulatively could mean a $2,000 price increase on 14- to 16-foot vessels that generally cost in the low five figures.
“有些这样的公司很难彻底吸收这些成本，”船舶制造企业协会(National Marine Manufacturers Association)高级副会长妮科尔·瓦西拉罗斯(Nicole Vasilaros)说。电动发动机是300种面临关税的常用船舶零部件之一，她说，这些零部件累积起来可能意味着14英尺(约合4.3米)到16英尺的船价格上涨2000美元。这种尺寸的船售价通常在一两万美元。
Because boats are often bought for recreational purposes, their demand tends to be elastic — highly responsive to price changes. That means those higher prices may well translate into fewer people enjoying their summer in a new motorboat.
因为买船通常是为了娱乐，它们的需求往往有弹性，也就是说，对价格变化非常敏感。这意味着涨价很可能会演变为购买新摩托艇消夏的人数减少。
A Display of Flexibility With Flat-Screen TVs
平板电视显示出的灵活性
Outboard boat motors and LEDs were both on the list for tariffs the Trump administration released this month. There is also something to learn from a product that wasn’t.
在特朗普政府本月公布的征收关税产品名单中，船用舷外发动机和LED都榜上有名。一种不在该名单上的产品也能带给我们一些启发。
Flat-screen televisions were on an earlier list of products targeted, before being spared after weeks of jockeying. But the supply chain for these devices illuminates the options all types of companies have for navigating around Chinese tariffs, and the ways that a trade war on all fronts carries greater risks for American consumers than one narrowly focused on China.
在早前的征收关税产品名单中，平板电视名列其中。经过数周斡旋后，平板电视被免征关税。但这些设备的供应链清楚地表明各种公司为避开针对中国的关税可采取的选择，以及全面爆发的贸易战对美国消费者的风险，比只针对中国的贸易战更大。
It will become particularly relevant if the dispute with China escalates and televisions again find themselves targeted — which, in recent days, has appeared more likely than not.
如果与中国的争端升级，电视再次成为关税目标——最近几天，这种情况看上去似乎很有可能发生——这一点会变得尤其意义重大。
The manufacture of liquid crystal display televisions takes place in several steps. The liquid crystal is made in sophisticated factories that can cost billions to build. Those displays are then combined with other parts to make the backlight assembly, the innards of a TV.
液晶电视的生产分多个步骤完成。液晶显示屏先在建厂成本可能高达数十亿的精密工厂里完成生产。然后，这些显示屏和其他零部件组装在一起，形成背光组件，这是电视的内部结构。
The last step is the simplest and most labor-intensive: packing the backlight assembly into the plastic shell of a TV, along with other parts like speakers and buttons, and putting it all into a box where it can be shipped to store shelves.
最后一步是最简单也是最劳动密集型的一步：把背光组件以及扬声器和按钮等部件装进电视的塑料外壳里，然后把它们都装进一个盒子里，运到商店的货架上。
The liquid crystals are made mainly in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China. The final assembly is done in many more places; many larger TVs sold in the United States are assembled in Mexico.
液晶屏主要由日本、韩国、台湾和中国制造。最后的组装则是在更多的地方完成，美国销售的许多大电视机都是在墨西哥组装的。
That shows the ways that savvy companies — which the giants of the TV business like LG, Sony and Samsung are — can avoid having the Chinese tariffs pinch. Shifting even more of their assembly to Mexico could allow them to avoid the tax even if it is expanded to encompass their products.
这表明，与LG、索尼(Sony)和三星(Samsung)等电视机巨头一样，精明的公司可以避免承受对中国增加关税的不利后果。它们可以将更多的组装业务转移到墨西哥，以避免缴税，即使征税范围扩大到它们的产品。
For example, LG has a facility in Reynosa, Mexico. Bob O’Brien, the president of Display Supply Chain Consultants, said he suspected the company could expand production there to shift assembly work from China.
例如，LG在墨西哥雷诺萨有一家工厂。显示器供应链咨询公司(Display Supply Chain Consultants)的总裁鲍勃·奥布赖恩(Bob O’Brien)表示，他觉得该公司可以扩大那里的生产，把组装工作从中国转移到那里。
“It would be disruptive in the sense that they would have to change their plans, but they could hire more people in Reynosa, add additional shifts, maybe change production lines, relatively easily,” Mr. O’Brien said.
“由于他们需要被迫改变计划，这可能会引起混乱，但他们可以在雷诺萨雇用更多工人，增加更多班次，或许还可以相对容易地改变生产线，”奥布赖恩说。
Even if the company needed to open up new production lines, six months or so might be enough.
即使该公司需要建设新的生产线，六个月左右的时间也足够了。
Imagine similar efforts across the TV manufacturing industry, and you can see that where the labor-intensive final assembly takes place might shift if Chinese tariffs were implemented, even if the highest-tech parts of televisions stay where they are. The good news is that strategy would spare American consumers a 25 percent tax; the bad news is it wouldn’t do much to punish China and force it to the table to negotiate over broader American complaints.
想象一下整个电视制造业都在做类似的努力，你可以看到，如果开始对中国增加关税，那么，电视机生产过程中，劳动密集的最终组装工作的地点可能发生变化，而技术含量最高的的生产环节可能留在原地。好消息是，美国消费者不必承受25%的关税;坏消息是，它对中国的惩罚力度不够，不足以迫使中国就美国更广泛的抗议进行谈判。
Moreover, the strategy of moving television assembly from China to Mexico would be a way to avoid any Chinese tariffs only so long as the North American Free Trade Agreement keeps American imports from Mexico tax-free.
此外，只有当《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)让美国可以从墨西哥免税进口产品的时候，将电视机组装从中国转移到墨西哥这一策略才可以令电视制造业避免承受针对中国的关税。
That points to one of the risks of the Trump administration’s strategy of waging trade wars on multiple fronts. When only one country — even a big, important one like China — faces punitive tariffs, companies can find ways to mitigate the damage to their own profits and to consumers.
这指出了特朗普政府在多个领域发动贸易战这一战略的风险。如果只有一个国家——甚至是像中国这样重要的国家——面临惩罚性关税，企业还可以找到方法，减轻它对自身利润和消费者的伤害。
But if the United States simultaneously raises tariffs on much of the world, corporate strategists have less room to maneuver.
但如果美国同时提高对世界很多地区的关税，那么企业策略师就没有多少回旋余地了。
“Companies will try to find ways to reduce the cost of trade barriers,” said Mary Lovely, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “If you take away all their options, it’s going to be much more detrimental to American corporations and American workers.”
“公司会努力寻找方法降低贸易壁垒的成本，”彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的非常驻高级研究员玛丽·洛夫利(Mary Lovely)说，“如果你剥夺了他们所有的选择，那么会对美国公司和美国工人造成更大的伤害。”
In other words, the impact of this first wave of China tariffs, while it will vary across different products for all sorts of reasons, may be manageable. A trade war with much of the world would be a different story entirely.
换句话说，第一轮中国关税的影响也许是可控的，尽管由于各种原因，关税对不同产品的影响会有所不同。与世界很多地区的贸易战则完全会是另一回事。
