“经济史上规模比较大的贸易战”将如何影响世界
正式开始了：特朗普政府在周五凌晨12点01分对价值340亿美元的中国产品征收关税后，美中两国进入了贸易战。
Beijing immediately retaliated with its own penalties. The Chinese government is targeting a range of American products with tariffs, including pork, soybeans and automobiles.
北京立即采取报复措施。中国政府针对包括猪肉、大豆和汽车在内的一系列美国产品征收了关税。
The prospect of rising costs for imports is expected to impact businesses and consumers alike. The United States has also imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines from countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and Japan.
美国还对来自加拿大、墨西哥、欧盟和日本等国的进口钢铝、太阳能电池板和洗衣机征收关税。预计进口成本上升将对企业和消费者产生影响。
For now, it is unclear how — or whether — the trade war might conclude. On Friday, China’s, Ministry of Commerce said the United States “has launched the biggest trade war in economic history so far,” and President Trump on Thursday continued to threaten Beijing with escalating tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods.
目前尚不清楚贸易战可能会如何结束——或者是否会结束。周五，中国商务部表示，美国“发动了迄今为止经济史上规模最大的贸易战”，特朗普总统周四继续威胁北京，对中国商品征收的关税将逐步升级，最终对价值高达4500亿美元的商品征收关税。
With its own tariffs on American goods, China would join other countries that have retaliated against Mr. Trump’s trade measures, bringing the total value of affected American exports to about $75 billion by the end of the week. That is still a small fraction of the $1.55 trillion of goods the United States exported last year, but in some industries, the pain is becoming intense.
凭借对美国商品征收的关税，中国将加入其他国家的行列，对特朗普的贸易措施进行报复，令受影响的美国出口总值于本周末达到约750亿美元。这依然只相当于美国去年出口的1.55万亿美元商品的一小部分，但在某些行业，这种痛苦正变得越来越剧烈。
The tariffs on China, the world’s largest manufacturing hub, affect a much larger share of products and a greater percentage of companies that rely on global supply chains, potentially hurting American companies even more than the Chinese firms the Trump administration is targeting. Research by Mary Lovely and Yang Liang of Syracuse University shows that in the field of computer and electronics products, for example, non-Chinese multinational corporations operating in China supply 87 percent of the products that will be affected by tariffs, while Chinese firms send only 13 percent.
中国是全球最大的制造业中心，对其征收的关税影响了更大的产品份额，以及更多依赖全球供应链的公司，这对美国公司的伤害，甚至可能超过特朗普政府所针对的中国公司。例如，雪城大学(Syracuse University)的玛丽·洛夫利(Mary Lovely)和梁扬(音)的研究表明，在计算机和电子产品领域，受关税影响的产品有87%由在中国运营的非中国跨国企业提供，而中国企业只提供其中的13%。
A 2011 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco showed that, for every dollar spent on an item labeled “Made in China,” 55 cents went for services produced in the United States. The risks that a trade war posed to the economy was a substantial topic of discussion when Fed policymakers met three weeks ago, according to minutes of the meeting released Thursday.
旧金山联邦储备银行2011年的一项研究显示，在标有“中国制造”的物品上，每消费一美元，就会有55美分流入美国生产的服务中。周四公布的会议纪要显示，三周前，美联储政策制定者会面时，贸易战对经济构成的风险是一个重要议题。
Most Fed officials at the table “noted that uncertainty and risks had intensified,” and that tariffs and other trade measures “could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending.”
大多数出席会议的美联储官员“注意到不确定性和风险加剧了”，并认为关税和其他贸易措施“可能对商业信心和投资支出产生负面影响”。
As of Friday morning, companies like Husco International, a Wisconsin-based manufacturing company that makes parts for companies like Ford, General Motors, Caterpillar and John Deere, now face a 25 percent increase on a variety of parts imported from China. Austin Ramirez, Husco International’s chief executive, said that increase would immediately put him and other American manufacturers at a disadvantage to competitors abroad.“The people it helps most of all are my competitors in Germany and Japan, who also have large parts of their supply chain in Asia but don’t have these tariffs,” he said. The Trump administration drafted its initial tariff list to spare consumers, and many of the products that American families purchase from China, like flat-screen TVs and shoes, are not directly hit on Friday. But American companies that depend on Chinese products are expected to feel the pinch, given the tariffs focus heavily on the kind of intermediate inputs and capital equipment that businesses purchase and ultimately sell both in the United States and abroad.
“Of course I want China to fight back,” said Cathy Yuan, 32, who was shopping at an upscale Shanghai supermarket on Friday. “We are defending our rights as a nation.”
“我当然支持中国反击，”32岁的凯茜·袁说，周五，她在一家上海高档超市购物。“这是为了我们国家的权利。”
