井喷过后，中国风险投资热潮恐降温

中国风险投资的喧闹可能要安静下来了。

This year, for the first time, Chinese start-ups raised more cash than their Silicon Valley counterparts, notching up $56 billion in six months. But the excitement may be cooling as the year ends, thanks to tougher regulation and a slowing economy. A shakeout could easily follow.

今年，中国初创企业筹集的资金首次超过了硅谷同行，在6个月内筹集了560亿美元。但随着这一年的结束，由于监管收紧和经济放缓，兴奋程度可能正在降温。接下来很可能是大震荡。

It has been a blowout 2018. For the first half of the year, a study released this week by the data provider Preqin and Insead business school suggests that China beat the $42 billion raised in the United States by some way. That’s largely thanks to a huge funding round for Alibaba’s financial affiliate, Ant Financial, as well as some other chunky efforts. But it’s a high-water mark regardless. As is, perhaps, SoftBank’s mooted move to place a team in China to help spend its giant Vision Fund, after years of investing remotely.

2018年已看到了井喷。就今年上半年而言，数据提供商普雷钦研究公司(Preqin)和欧洲工商管理学院(Insead)本周发布的一项研究显示，中国筹集到的资金比美国筹集的420亿美元高出不少。这在很大程度上要归功于阿里巴巴的金融子公司蚂蚁金服的一轮巨额融资，以及其他的大手笔努力。但无论如何，这都是一个新高。同样新的也许是软银(SoftBank)的讨论，在远程投资多年后，软银打算安排一个团队在中国帮助投放其庞大的愿景基金(Vision Fund)。

The coming months look less exuberant. The likes of SoftBank and Singapore’s Temasek still have plenty of money to plow into splashy names like the news and video-sharing app ByteDance. Others are less enthusiastic, if figures for China-focused venture funds are anything to go by. In the 11 months to mid-November, around 70 such funds raised just over $15 billion, Preqin estimates; that compares to $40 billion or so raised by 330 funds in all of 2016.

接下来的几个月看起来不那么乐观。软银和新加坡淡马锡(Temasek)等公司仍有大量资金，可投给比如新闻和视频分享应用“字节跳动”等引人注目的品牌。要是单凭以中国为重点的风险基金的数据来看，其他投资者已不那么热情了。普雷钦研究公司估计，在截至11月中旬的11个月里，约有70家这种基金筹集到了略高于150亿美元的资金;相比之下，有330家基金在2016年全年筹集了400亿美元左右。

All of this suggests increased nerves. The vast majority of Chinese unicorns that listed this year, including the takeaways-to-taxis app Meituan Dianping and the smartphone-maker Xiaomi, are now underwater. Just a small fraction of those $1 billion-plus companies, including video-streaming companies Huya, Bilibili and iQiyi, have risen above their initial public offering prices. Rocky starts like that of the Alibaba-backed parenting site Babytree, which debuted last month at a valuation below its last funding round, won’t help.

所有这些都表明不安情绪在增长。今年上市的中国独角兽企业，包括经营从外卖到网约车应用的美团点评，以及智能手机制造商小米在内，绝大多数的股票都已低于发行价。在这些市值10多亿美元的企业中，只有包括视频流媒体公司虎牙直播、哔哩哔哩和爱奇艺在内的一小部分的股价高于发行价。阿里巴巴支持的育儿网站宝宝树上个月上市筹集到的资金低于其上市前的最后一轮融资，这对情况没有帮助。

What most of this year’s debutantes have in common is that they bet on local consumers, one way or another. But those shoppers look more fretful. Changes to rules on education, fintech and gaming have only added to the strain. Weaker companies may fall by the wayside.

今年的大多数新秀都有一个共同点，那就是它们都以这样或那样的方式押注本土消费者。但这些消费者看起来更加焦躁不安。教育、金融科技和游戏软件监管规则的改变只会加剧这种压力。实力较弱的公司可能会中途退出。