美国国家海洋和大气管理局警告说，飓风季节将高于平均水平

美国国家海洋和大气管理局警告说，飓风季节将高于平均水平

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 2020 will be an above-average hurricane season, with six to 10 hurricanes. NOAA expects three to six to be Category 3 or higher, with sustained wind speeds above 110 miles per hour.

美国国家海洋和大气管理局预测，2020年的飓风季将超过平均水平，有6到10场飓风。美国国家海洋和大气管理局预计3到6场飓风将达到3级或更高，持续风速将超过每小时110英里。

This hurricane season is coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed nearly 100,000 people in the U.S. and continues to complicate basic travel and commerce across the country. Residents and emergency managers in hurricane-prone areas are grappling with concerns that evacuations, especially to public shelters, might increase coronavirus infections.

这个飓风季节正好与冠状病毒大流行相吻合，后者已在美国造成近10万人死亡，并继续使全国各地的基本旅行和商业活动复杂化。飓风多发地区的居民和应急管理人员正在努力解决撤离问题，尤其是疏散到公共避难所，这可能会增加冠状病毒感染。

If the forecast proves correct, it will be the fifth year in a row with an above-average number of hurricanes — the most consecutive years of above-average hurricane activity ever recorded.

如果预测正确，这将是飓风数量连续第五年高于平均水平——这是有记录以来飓风活动超过平均水平的最连续的年份。

"Now is the time to make sure you're getting prepared for this season," says Gerry Bell, NOAA'S lead hurricane forecaster.

美国国家海洋和大气管理局的首席飓风预报员格里·贝尔说:“现在是时候确保你已经为这个季节做好准备了。”

Bell warns residents of hurricane-prone areas not to be overly focused on hurricane category, which is based only on wind speed. "Don't get locked into just the ultimate hurricane strength," he says.

贝尔警告飓风易发地区的居民不要过于关注飓风级别，因为飓风级别仅仅是基于风速。他说:“不要仅仅局限于最终的飓风强度。”

Climate change is driving more extreme rain and causing sea levels to rise, which means storms of all sizes are more damaging than they used to be. "Higher sea levels mean more storm inundation as a storm is approaching," says Bell. "The problem with that is our coastlines have built up tremendously over the last decades, so there [are] potentially millions more people in harm's way every time a hurricane threatens [to make landfall]."

气候变化导致了更多的极端降雨，并导致海平面上升，这意味着各种规模的风暴都比以往更具破坏性。“随着风暴的临近，更高的海平面意味着更多的洪水泛滥，”贝尔说。“问题是，我们的海岸线在过去几十年里大大提高了，所以每次飓风威胁登陆的时候，都可能有数百万人处于危险之中。”

The Atlantic has been relatively friendly to hurricanes since 1995, and recent above-average activity is largely due to that trend, which is separate from man-made climate change.

自1995年以来，大西洋对飓风相对来说比较友好，最近飓风的活跃度高于平均水平很大程度上是由于这一趋势，而这与人为造成的气候变化无关。

However, at the global level, climate change caused by humans is driving more intense hurricanes on average, according to a NOAA study published this week.

然而，根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局本周发布的一份研究报告，在全球范围内，人类活动造成的气候变化正导致越来越多的强烈飓风。

On Wednesday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency published its 2020 pandemic guide for hurricane preparedness, which urges state and local governments to rethink when they give evacuation orders ahead of hurricanes, and where they direct residents to go. FEMA warns that housing large groups of people in shelters could lead to increased transmission of the coronavirus.

周三，美国联邦紧急事务管理局发布了2020年流行病期间飓风防备指南，敦促各州和地方政府重新考虑在飓风前何时下达疏散命令，以及指引居民前往何处。联邦应急管理局警告说，让大群人住在避难所可能会增加冠状病毒的传播。

On Thursday, FEMA Acting Deputy Administrator Carlos Castillo said that the agency wants people to change what they bring with them if they evacuate from a hurricane.

周四，美国联邦应急管理局的代理副局长卡洛斯·卡斯蒂略表示，该机构希望人们在从飓风中撤离时改变随身携带的物品。

"Be prepared to take cleaning items with you like soap, hand sanitizer, disinfecting wipes or general household cleaning supplies to disinfect surfaces you may touch regularly," he says.

他说:“准备好随身携带清洁用品，比如肥皂、洗手液、消毒湿巾或一般的家用清洁用品，可以给你经常接触的表面消毒。”

FEMA also recommends that people prioritize staying with family or friends outside evacuation zones rather than going to shelters, in order to limit coronavirus spread. Earlier this month the Red Cross announced it was working on arrangements with hotels in disaster-prone areas, so that people who are displaced can stay out of group shelters as much as possible.

联邦应急管理局还建议，为了限制冠状病毒的传播，人们优先与疏散区外的家人或朋友呆在一起，而不是去避难所。本月早些时候，红十字会宣布，它正在与灾难易发地区的酒店进行安排，以便流离失所的人能够尽可能远离集体避难所。