若哥本哈根峰会无果 中国损失巨大

如果哥本哈根气候变化峰会无法提出一项综合性的有关利用绿色能源的协议，可能会对中国产生诸多重大影响，其中包括对太阳能和碳捕获这两个拥有巨大增长潜力的技术领域的融资。

China has lots at stake if Copenhagen climate change talks don't come up with a comprehensive green energy package, including financing for two potentially huge growth areas--solar power and carbon capture.

中国近期宣布了基于碳强度的减排目标，虽然并没有如一些国家所要求的那样制定具有约束力的温室气体排放上限，但这表明中国准备在本周开始的气候峰会上扮演关键角色。

Its recent announcement on cutting carbon intensity, while falling short of binding greenhouse gas emissions caps demanded by some countries, shows China is ready to play a central role in the climate summit that started this week.

若哥本哈根峰会达成协议，可能会给中国带来好处：中国将从发达国家获得更多的资金援助和技术转让。作为太阳能和风电设备的出口大国，中国还将获得更多的产品需求。让中国政府最为担心的则是终止《京都议定书》有关在发展中国家的减排可以带来可交易的碳排放额度的条款；中国一直是相关机制的最大受益者，其获得的碳排放额度占总量的59%。

A deal in Copenhagen could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products. What China dreads most is the end of Kyoto provisions that grant tradable credits for reducing emissions; China has been the top receiver for the credits in terms of registered projects with the United Nations, getting 59% of the total.

《京都议定书》的后续协议可能会在以下几个方面给中国带来更多的现金：清洁发展机制(CDM)所产生的碳排放额度继续带来资金流入，获得所需的资金建成全球第四大风力发电能力，以及从外国公司手中夺回国内风力发电市场的控制权。

A successor to Kyoto could unlock more cash for China, in the form of a renewed inflow of carbon credits generated by the Clean Development Mechanism, money that helped it build the world's fourth largest wind power capacity and also wrest control of the domestic wind power market from foreign companies.

中国资源综合利用协会可再生能源专业委员会的CDM项目主任王卫权说，如果哥本哈根峰会能使得2012年之后清洁发展机制的前景更加明了，取得积极的成果，那么就可能会提振对中国清洁能源项目的投资兴趣。

'If the outlook for CDM after 2012 can get clearer during the Copenhagen conference and it turns out to be positive, then investment interest in China's clean energy projects would get a boost,' said Wang Weiquan, CDM project director with the China Renewable Energy Industries Association.

IHS集团旗下剑桥能源咨询公司(IHS CERA)的研究显示，截至去年年底，中国公司已经在中国风力发电设备市场上占据了67%的份额，而Vestas Wind Systems、Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia和通用电气(General Electric)等外国竞争对手在中国市场的总份额已经从2004年的75%锐减至20%。

By the end of last year, Chinese companies had grabbed a 67% share of China's wind power equipment market, squeezing Vestas Wind Systems AS, Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia SA and General Electric Co., whose combined China market share slumped to 20%, from 75% in 2004, according to research by IHS CERA.

林娜是欧盟提供资金支持的欧盟-中国清洁发展机制促进项目(EU-China CDM Facilitation Project)的项目经理。她认为，风力发电和中国已拥有成熟技术的水力发电不太可能在2012年之后获得碳排放额度。

Lin Na, a manager with the European Commission-funded EU-China CDM Facilitation Project, thinks wind and hydropower, where China has now mature technologies, are unlikely to secure carbon credits in a post-2012 scenario.

但林娜说，碳捕获及封存（CCS）和太阳能等领域可能会从富裕国家获得资金。

But sectors like carbon capture and sequestration and solar power have the potential to receive funding from rich nations, Lin said.

看起来即便不能通过碳排放额度获得帮助，中国也有望赢得国际清洁煤炭技术合约。

China looks well placed to capture international clean coal technology contracts, even without help from carbon credits.