外卖行业这么火爆，有没有想过哪天会黄？

This week, two of Europe’s biggest online food ordering groups attempted to combine bookings when Amsterdam-based Takeaway.com said it was in talks to buy the UK’s Just Eat. The £5bn proposed takeover marks a land grab for market share in a crowded sector.

最近(编者注：本篇英文原文发表于2019年8月3日)，欧洲两大在线订餐集团试图合并预订业务——总部位于阿姆斯特丹的Takeaway.com宣布正在谈判收购英国的Just Eat。这项拟议中的50亿英镑收购标志着在一个拥挤的行业抢占市场份额。

DoorDash on Thursday announced a $410m deal for Square’s restaurant delivery unit, Caviar. DoorDash has raised nearly $2bn in the past two years, most recently valuing the company at $12.6bn.

DoorDash最近宣布与Square的餐厅外卖部门Caviar达成4.1亿美元交易。DoorDash在过去两年筹集近20亿美元的资金，最近估值达到126亿美元。

“Lately, we’ve seen some massive deals go towards food delivery start-ups like DoorDash and Deliveroo. While this may give a short-term boost in prospects for the food delivery space, it doesn’t negate the fact that food delivery has had a tumultuouspast,” said Natan Reddy, senior intelligence analyst at CB Insights.

CB Insights的高级情报分析师纳坦•雷迪(Natan Reddy)表示：“最近，我们看到一些大笔交易转向DoorDash和Deliveroo这样的送餐初创公司。虽然这可能会在短期提振外卖行业的前景，但它并不能抹掉外卖业务过去混乱无序的事实。”

Historically, the online food marketplace connected consumers with takeaway food restaurants, leaving the restaurants to cart the food to customers. Today’s apps such as DoorDash and Deliveroo are fighting to get to your doorstep.

传统上，在线食品市场在消费者与外卖餐馆之间牵线搭桥，然后让餐馆直接向顾客送餐。如今DoorDash和Deliveroo等app正在竞相把餐食送到你的家门口。

US research group Second Measure has attempted to shed some light on the booming sector. By analysing anonymised credit and debit card data it estimates that US sales have grown three-fold since 2016, with market leader DoorDash earning 34 per cent of US consumers’ meal delivery sales in June, overtaking GrubHub and topping Uber Eats.

美国研究集团Second Measure试图进一步剖析这个蓬勃发展的行业。通过分析匿名信用卡和借记卡数据，它估计美国的销售额自2016年以来增长至原有水平的三倍，市场领军者DoorDash在今年6月赢得了美国消费者外卖销售额的34%，超越了GrubHub，也高于Uber Eats。

The sector is clearly thriving, but the economics do not yet stack up.

该行业显然正在蓬勃发展，但在经济学上仍然站不住脚。

It makes sense if these businesses operate in bustling metropolitan cities filled with high-rise buildings where one apartment block can service multiple orders. Or where orders are very large. But those cost efficiencies quickly narrow if the delivery company is spending time going from door to door, or the orders are small deliveries, such as a burger and chips.

如果这些企业在高楼大厦林立的繁华大都市中运营，一个公寓楼里可以派送多个订单，或者订单金额非常大，那么这种业务模式是可行的。但是，如果外卖公司花时间挨家挨户送餐，或者是汉堡和薯条等小额订单，那么成本效率会迅速降低。

Offering wider services by delivering groceries, or items like toothpaste, similar to how room service works at a hotel, also has its pitfalls.

通过派送生鲜食品或牙膏等物品来提供更广泛的服务(类似于酒店的客房服务)也有其缺陷。

“The problem you face with delivery is ensuring that you gain enough drops per hour to establish profitability. By opening it up to groceries, or non-takeaway food, you may gain more orders, but these may not overlap, which will just add extra costs,” said James Lockyer, an analyst at Peel Hunt.

Peel Hunt的分析师詹姆斯•洛克耶(James Lockyer)表示：“对于外卖业务，你面临的问题是确保每小时获得足够的送餐次数，以便实现盈利。增添生鲜食品或非外卖食品，可能会让你获得更多的订单，但这些订单可能不会与送餐订单重叠，这只会增加额外的成本。”

Mr Lockyer argued that the prospect of having convenient foods delivered within the hour, such as with Ocado’s Zoom, could shake up the sector even further. He said being able to receive and cook healthy foods quickly could threaten those such as Deliveroo.

洛克耶表示，一小时内提供方便食品的前景，就像Ocado的Zoom所提供的服务，可能会进一步撼动该行业。他说，能够快速收货并烹饪健康食品，可能会对Deliveroo之类的平台构成威胁。

That scenario will be unwelcome as the strain of intense competition is already biting. US-listed food delivery company GrubHub has had its market share eaten away by new entrants, leading to a share price drop of 50 per cent in the past year, while Just Eat’s pre-tax profit fell 98 per cent and Takeaway.com doubled its loss before tax in its latest results.

这种局面将不受欢迎，因为业者已经感受到了激烈竞争的压力。在美国上市的外卖公司GrubHub的市场份额被新进入者抢走，导致其股价在过去一年下跌50%，而Just Eat的税前利润骤降98%，Takeaway.com的最新财报显示税前亏损增加了一倍。

A long history of failures exists in the on-demand space, and food delivery platforms are no exception. Even Amazon has had to close its doors on its food delivery platform Amazon Restaurants in the US and UK.

按需领域存在着长期的失败历史，送餐平台也不例外。就连亚马逊(Amazon)也不得不关闭其在美国和英国的送餐平台——亚马逊餐厅(Amazon Restaurants)。