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未来你的工作会不会被机器人替代?

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2018年04月08日

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未来你的工作会不会被机器人替代?

The idea of getting gangs of robots to do our dirty work and daily drudgery sounds appealing, until you consider the impact on the people who are doing those jobs already - will they be able to find work somewhere else? It's not a new dilemma (the same question has been asked since the Industrial Revolution and beyond) but the rise of super-smart AI-driven robots has brought it into sharper focus in recent years.

让机器人成群结队地代替我们做一些脏活累活听上去十分吸引人,直到你开始考虑这将对那些岗位的现任工作者所造成的影响——他们能够在其他地方找到活干吗?这个两难困境并非新鲜事——它早在工业革命时便已提出,然而近年来,超级聪明的人工智能机器人的出现将这个问题推上顶峰。

The BBC, together with researchers from the University of Oxford and Deloitte, has put together a comprehensive list of the jobs that are most (and least) at risk. If you're a telephone salesperson you might want to start polishing up your CV - the study says there's a 99 percent chance your job will go to a robot in the next 20 years. The other professions in the top five are typist or related keyboard worker (98.5 percent); legal secretary (97.6 percent); financial accounts manager (97.6 percent); and weigher, grader, or sorter (also 97.6 percent).

BBC和牛津大学及德勤的研究人员共同合作,列出了一个全面的工作清单,其中包含了危险性最高及最低的工作。假如你是一个电话销售员,那么你也许需要重新擦拭一下自己的简历待用了,因为该研究表明,这项工作在未来20年内被机器人所取代的概率是99%。除此之外,高危榜单的前五名分别是:打字员或相关的键盘工作者(98.5%)、法律助理(97.6%)、金融客户经理(97.6%)、过秤员或阅卷评分员或分类员(97.6%)。

The jobs at the lowest risk from automated machines are hotel and accommodation manager or owner (0.4 percent); publican or manager of licensed premises (0.4 percent); education adviser and school inspector (0.4 percent); speech and language therapist (0.5 percent); and social services manager or director (0.7 percent). If any of those apply to you, you're probably safe - though your children might not be.

而低危职业榜单的前五名则分别是:酒店和住宿服务的经理或持有者(0.4%)、有特许执照的企业老板或经理(0.4%)、教育顾问或督学(0.4%)、言语治疗师(0.5%)、社会服务机构的经理或总管(0.7%)。如果你所从事的是这些职业,那么你很可能得以躲过一劫——但你的儿孙就不一定了。

The BBC has put together an interactive chart that lets you search for your current occupation and see what the estimated risks are. "Certain aspects of a job are simpler to automate than others," explains the guide. "Social workers, nurses, therapists, and psychologists are among the least likely occupations to be taken over as assisting and caring for others, which involves empathy, is a crucial part of the job."

BBC发布了一个交互式图表,你可以在上面搜索自己的职业,看看它被取代的预估几率有多大。

对于某些特定职业,自动化的实现更为简单。社会工作者、护士、治疗师、心理学家等是最不容易被取代的职业,因为“共情心”是这些职业的关键组成部分。

"Roles requiring employees to think on their feet and come up with creative and original ideas, for example artists, designers or engineers, hold a significant advantage in the face of automation," the BBC adds.

需要雇员迅速做出反应、给出具有创造性和新颖性想法的职业在自动化危机前同样具有明显的优势,如艺术家、设计师、工程师。

These are tasks robots and AI software tend to struggle with, whereas they're very good at processing data and following detailed instructions to the letter over and over again. If you feel like a mindless robot at your current job, then chances are you're at risk of being replaced by one.

对于机器人和人工智能软件而言,有些任务是很困难的,但它们擅长处理数据、严格按照详细指示进行重复性工作。如果你在当前职业中感到自己像一个不需要动脑筋的机器人一样,那么你很有可能被一个真正的机器人所替代。

But the robot and software developers would say they're building a better future for all of us, and the evidence backs that up: improved technology and robotics have created more jobs than they've taken away in recent years, freeing us human beings up to explore more enjoyable careers and to spend more time on leisure activities.

然而,机器人和软件开发者表示,未来是光明的。证据显示,近年来,不断提升的科技和机器人学创造了比它们所带走的更多的工作。这解放了人类,使我们能够在更令人享受的职业中进行探索,同时能有更多时间花费在休闲上。


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