IMF：全球迎来最广泛的加速增长

IMF hails ‘broadest’ upsurge in growth
IMF：全球迎来最广泛的加速增长

The International Monetary Fund hailed the “broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010” as the global elite arrived at the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday in ebullient mood.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)宣告迎来“自2010年以来覆盖面最广的全球同步增长加快”。与此同时，全球精英们昨日怀着兴奋的心情抵达达沃斯出席世界经济论坛(WEF)。

Consigning the troubles of the past decade to history, the upgraded IMF forecasts signalled the strongest global outlook since the start of 2010.

调高后的IMF预测一扫过去10年的阴暗表述，描绘自2010年初以来最强劲的全球前景。

The optimism was matched by a jump in chief executives’ confidence about their companies’ prospects, detailed in an annual survey by PwC, the professional services firm. Speaking in Davos, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, said: “All signs point to a further strengthening [in global growth] both this year and next. This is very welcome news.”

与这种乐观情绪相称的是首席执行官们对各自公司的前景信心大增，这反映于专业服务公司普华永道(PwC)的一项年度调查。IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在达沃斯发表讲话时表示：“所有迹象都表明全球经济增长在今年和明年都会进一步加强。这是非常可喜的消息。”

With memories of the global financial crash still raw and Greece just beginning to emerge from the crisis, the mood among chief executives arriving in the Swiss mountain resort is more positive than at any stage since the boom of more than a decade ago.

在世人对全球金融危机仍然记忆犹新，而希腊刚刚开始摆脱危机的背景下，抵达达沃斯这个瑞士度假胜地的首席执行官们的情绪，比10多年前的繁荣时期以来的任何阶段都更加积极。

Bob Moritz, global chairman of PwC, said: “Chief executives’ optimism in the global economy is driven by the economic indicators being so strong. With the stock markets booming . . . it’s no surprise CEOs are so bullish.”

普华永道全球董事长鲍勃•莫瑞兹(Bob Moritz)表示：“首席执行官们对全球经济的乐观看法受到极其强劲的经济指标的推动。考虑到股市高涨……难怪首席执行官们会如此满怀信心。”

The IMF upgraded its forecasts for world economic growth for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Better data than expected in the autumn raised the growth predictions for last year, with momentum carried forward into 2018 and augmented by the US corporate tax cuts.

IMF调高了其2017年、2018年和2019年世界经济增长预测。好于预期的秋季数据提升了对去年的增长预测，而这股势头在2018年得以延续，并受到美国削减公司税率的增强。

The world economy was likely to grow 3.9 per cent this year and next, the fund said, up 0.2 percentage points for both years on the back of a better outlook in the US and eurozone.

该组织表示，今年和明年世界经济有望分别增长3.9%，比之前的预测都高出0.2个百分点，原因是美国和欧元区的前景都更加光明。

With Donald Trump, the US president, due to give a speech at the forum on Friday, the IMF raised the US growth forecast for 2018 from 2.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent and added a 0.6 percentage point upgrade to its 2019 US forecast, lifting it to 2.5 per cent.

美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)周五在世界经济论坛发表讲话前夕，IMF将美国2018年经济增长预测从2.3%上调至2.7%，并将2019年美国增长预测上调0.6个百分点，至2.5%。

By 2020, it said, the total effect of the corporate tax cuts was likely to boost the US economy 1.2 per cent, although there would be some payback in subsequent years as the nation had to restore its public finances. Canada and Mexico would also benefit from the US fiscal expansion, the fund said, exporting more to the world’s most important economy as demand increased.

到2020年时，削减公司税率的总体效用有望给美国经济带来1.2%的额外增长，尽管随着国家不得不恢复公共财政，之后几年会付出一些代价。IMF表示，加拿大和墨西哥也将受益于美国的财政扩张。随着需求增加，这两个国家对世界最重要经济体的出口将相应增长。

While advanced economies are performing better than expected, the IMF noted that the fastest growing region continued to be Asia, with the supersized economies of China and India in the driving seat. “The region continues to account for over half of world growth,” the fund said. But Ms Lagarde stressed that while she was “encouraged” by the global outlook, “we should not feel satisfied”. Despite the IMF seeing balanced risks for the two years ahead, she highlighted the threats to the sustainability of the upswing.

尽管发达经济体的表现好于预期，但IMF指出，增长最快的地区仍然是亚洲，中国和印度这两个大型经济体在亚洲起到拉动作用。“该地区继续占全球增长的一半以上，”该组织表示。但拉加德强调，尽管全球前景使她受到“鼓舞”，但是“我们不应该感到满足”。尽管IMF认为未来两年风险均衡，但她强调了当前增长的可持续性所面临的威胁。

译者/和风