美国两党制已名存实亡
政客来了又去，但有些政客就是无法离开舞台。“一些人希望我也消失，”希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)写道，“但我还在这。”希拉里为期3个月的全球签售之旅就是在试图东山再起。但她对2016年总统大选经历的“剖析之旅”，只会加深民主党的务实派和那些试图把民主党重新打造为欧洲式社会主义政党的人之间的分歧。希拉里对伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)。我们不是已经看过这场戏了吗?
Yes, but this is season two. We are also deep into the plot of the Republican civil war between the nativist populists, who are led by Stephen Bannon, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist, and its establishment, whose agenda is tax cuts. Partisans might ask whose side Mr Trump is on. They will never find out. Sometimes he will throw a bone to the alt-right. At others he will sound like a business chamber Republican. In reality, Mr Trump supports a brand of one. Those in search of his philosophical core should start with the Bermuda Triangle.
没错，但这是第二季。共和党内战这场戏也已进入第二阶段——共和党本土主义民粹主义者对建制派，前者以唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)前首席战略师史蒂夫•班农(StephenBannon)为首，后者的首要议程是减税。已经选边站的人们可能会问，特朗普站住哪一边。他们永远不会找到答案的。有时特朗普会赏另类右翼一块糖。有时他又会站在代表商界利益的共和党人立场上说话。事实上，特朗普自成一派。那些想知道特朗普的核心哲学的人，还不如先去研究百慕大三角(Bermuda Triangle)。
There was a time when the US had two functioning parties. That is no longer the case. I can now count four. Since Mr Trump has no fixed membership, the tally has risen temporarily to five. In last year’s primaries, the right populist and left populist candidates, Mr Trump and Mr Sanders, took more than half of the votes between them. If that were translated into seats, America’s traditional two parties would be in a minority. The picture would be closer to Emmanuel Macron’s France, where the Gaullists and Socialists are on the sidelines.
曾几何时，美国有两个正常运转的政党。这种情况已经一去不复返了。我现在可以数出四个政党。由于特朗普不固定属于其中任何一个，这个数字已暂时升为五。在去年初选时，右翼民粹主义候选人特朗普和左翼民粹主义候选人桑德斯总共拿下了超过一半的选票。如果把选票转化为席位，美国两大传统政党会成为少数党派。情况会更像埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)领导的法国——如今戴高乐主义派(Gaullist)和社会党(Socialist)被撇在一边。
But American politics is doomed to limp on with the shell of two parties. Their contempt for each other is exceeded only by their antagonisms within. Neither of each party’s warring factions is strong enough to claim the whole. But they have enough clout to stop their rivals from doing so. Mrs Clinton’s return to the stage has brought the Democratic fissure into the open.
但是美国政治注定要背着两党制的外壳蹒跚前行。唯一超过两党对彼此的蔑视的东西，就是两党内部不同派系的相互敌视。两党内部相互打仗的派系，没有一支能够收服全党。但它们有足够的力量来阻止对手派系收服全党。希拉里回归政治舞台，挑明了民主党内的分歧。
“I am not done with politics because I literally believe that our country’s future is at stake,” she said on Sunday. Mr Sanders retorted: “Our job now is really not to go backwards.”
“我没有放弃政治，因为我确实认为我们国家的未来危在旦夕。”她上周日表示。桑德斯反驳道：“我们现在真的不应该开倒车。”
Mr Sanders begins this week with his bill to have “Medicare for all” — a single payer healthcare system along the lines of those in France and Switzerland. The bill stands zero chance of being passed in a Republican-controlled Congress. But it serves as a perfect device for presidential hopefuls to signal to the party’s base which way they are heading.
桑德斯本周提出了他的“全民医保”法案——和法国与瑞士的医保体系类似的单一付费者医保体系。在目前由共和党控制的国会，该法案通过的可能性为零。但有望当上总统的人可以完美利用该法案向党内基础选民表明，他们将朝哪个方向前进。
Four other 2020 aspirants, including Elizabeth Warren, the senator from Massachusetts, are co-sponsoring the legislation. To Democratic centrists, such as Mrs Clinton, “Medicare for all” is the epitome of the gesture politics they despise. Mr Sanders has said nothing about how he would pay for the reform. Economists say it would require a huge tax increase.
其他四位有志于角逐2020年大选的人士——其中包括马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白•沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)——也支持该法案。对于希拉里这样的民主党中间派来说，“全民医保法”是他们所鄙视的姿态政治的典型代表。桑德斯对这项改革的资金将来自哪里只字不提。经济学家表示这需要大幅增税。
The gulf between “progressives who get things done”, as Mrs Clinton puts it, and those who pontificate but achieve little, is visible across the board. Sanders Democrats are closer to Mr Trump’s America First supporters on foreign policy than to Mrs Clinton’s mainstream globalism. Sanders Democrats dislike overseas entanglements to the point of having little opinion on foreign policy at all. Likewise, there is a growing schism on whether to treat Silicon Valley as friend or foe. Mrs Warren, who is vying with Mr Sanders to be the leader of the socialist Democrats, wants to break up big data titans like Facebook, Apple, Google and Amazon. Democratic centrists view such trust-busting with horror. Silicon Valley, after all, is their largest financial donor.
“干实事的进步派”(用希拉里话来说)与高谈阔论但一事无成者之间的分歧是全方位的。在外交政策上，桑德斯派民主党人的观点更贴近特朗普“美国优先”(America First)主义支持者，而非希拉里的主流全球主义。桑德斯派民主党人丝毫不愿掺和海外事务，以至于他们对外交政策几乎没有看法。同样，在把硅谷当作朋友还是敌人的问题上，民主党内部的分歧也日益加深。与桑德斯争夺民主党社会主义派领袖之位的沃伦，希望分拆Facebook、苹果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)和亚马逊(Amazon)等大数据巨头。民主党中间派以恐惧的心态看待此类打破垄断的打算。毕竟，硅谷是他们最大的金主。
Money is also splitting the Republicans. Mr Bannon’s jihad against the Republican establishment is funded by Robert Mercer, the hedge fund billionaire. They believe the party’s leaders have “nullified” Mr Trump’s America First agenda, and are busy funding populist challengers to Republican incumbents. In reality, each faction is competing for Mr Trump’s soul. The one point on which they agree is that he should not do deals with Democrats. On this they are at one with the Sanders wing of the Democratic party. Any Democrat who hands Mr Trump a win is likely to face similar insurgencies from the left.
金钱也在共和党内制造了裂痕。班农对共和党建制派的讨伐，由对冲基金亿万富翁罗伯特•默瑟(Robert Mercer)提供资金。班农一派认为，共和党领袖已使特朗普的“美国优先”议程变得“空洞无物”，这一派正忙于资助挑战在任共和党人的民粹主义者。实际上，两个派系都在争夺特朗普的心。他们都认同的一点是，特朗普不应该和民主党达成交易。在这一点上，他们与民主党桑德斯派的意见一致。任何让特朗普胜一局的民主党人，都可能会面临来自左翼的类似暴动。
If Mr Trump were another person, he could orchestrate this chaos to his ends. No president has inherited better conditions to realign US politics. But Mr Trump has the attention span of a goldfish. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, has the memory of an elephant. She has launched a funding vehicle called “Onward together”. It sounds suspiciously like the “Stronger together” slogan she ran on last year. To put it mildly, the outlook for togetherness is not fair.
如果特朗普是另一个人，他或许能够让这场混乱为自己服务。再没有别的总统享有这样的绝好条件去再造美国政治了。但特朗普保持注意力的时间之短堪比金鱼。与此同时，希拉里的记性之好堪比大象。她推出了名为“一起前进”(Onward together)的筹资工具。这名字跟她去年的竞选口号“在一起更强大”(Stronger Together)极为相像，让人感觉不妙。保守地说，“一起”事业的前景不算光明。
